Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Jobs and wages, mainly.
If people don't have jobs, they can't buy shit if it's offered at 0% financing for 10 years, same as cash.
If people see their wages and benefits slashed dramatically, and are worried about keeping their jobs, they buy used Hyundai Excels, and no more shiny new BMW 3 Series.
It is my opinion that these two metrics are without question 90% of the puzzle that will tell us what the economy going forward will resemble - this is because unlike past downturns, where employees were laid off only to return to the same position when the cycle kicked back up (think factory workers who were given pink slips in the early 80s or early 90s, when sales of durable goods and autos slowed), or who had their wages cut only to see reinstatement of wage gains when the cycle kicked back up, Volcker has it absolutely correct in that jobs can't be deemed the kind of lagging indicator they once were.
We've lost 13 million jobs, and between 4 and 5.5 million of those have been to overseas, were of a high wage nature, and will never return.
This is not your father's or grandfather's economic downturn.
There will be no robust job growth whenever we hit bottom.
Whatever job growth there will be will be anemic with weak wages.