Strategy Trading, Probabilities & Blackjack/Poker

Quote from Remiraz:

the thing is: how do we know our entries aren't random?
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Because whenever I enter a daytrade it meets specific criteria that I apply time and time again.
I do so many parralells b/t trading and gambling. I am a big horseplayer and I feel that a good day at the track or on the screen playing the horses much resembles a good day on the screen daytrading stocks!
 
Ramirez wrote -

the thing is: how do we know our entries aren't random?
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From scientific point of view movements of atoms with freq very more as teragerz are not true random ,but only quazirandom .

Communication code which based on this movements and used regulary ,can be open

Your entry are not occasional and can not be .
 
Ramirez wrote -

the thing is: how do we know our entries aren't random?
-------------------------------------

From scientific point of view movements of atoms with freq very more as teragerz are not true random ,but only quazirandom .

Communication code which based on this movements and used regulary ,can be open

Your entry are not occasional and can not be .
 
Actually random entries will not have a 50/50 probability. During a sustained trend the probability is skewed towards the direction of the trend. That 50/50 rule is believed by efficient market theorists who believe an uptick on the previous bar tells us nothing about the next bar so the odds is 50/50. However, if you believe that then you are telling people that you will never make money trading.
 
Quote from mahras2:

Actually random entries will not have a 50/50 probability. During a sustained trend the probability is skewed towards the direction of the trend. That 50/50 rule is believed by efficient market theorists who believe an uptick on the previous bar tells us nothing about the next bar so the odds is 50/50. However, if you believe that then you are telling people that you will never make money trading.
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What criteria do you use to decide you are in a sustained uptrend?
 
So when these tell you you are in a trend, from that point on random entries are skewed in the direction of that trend, and any entry would favor making money?
 
In BJ counting, it takes 10,000 hands to really show if the player has an edge. The rest of the time, equity changes are due to variance. In fact, a good counter with 1-2% edge can be down a lot on his first 50-100 hands and make big bucks later.

Strange thing is like when it comes to trading, we see very often people post a journal or screenies of 10-20 trades and claim they have an edge.
 
Quote from Remiraz:

In BJ counting, it takes 10,000 hands to really show if the player has an edge. The rest of the time, equity changes are due to variance. In fact, a good counter with 1-2% edge can be down a lot on his first 50-100 hands and make big bucks later.

Strange thing is like when it comes to trading, we see very often people post a journal or screenies of 10-20 trades and claim they have an edge.
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While 10,000 hands sounds like a lot, it really isn't that much time...about 80-120 days.
 
Quote from mahras2:

Actually random entries will not have a 50/50 probability. During a sustained trend the probability is skewed towards the direction of the trend. That 50/50 rule is believed by efficient market theorists who believe an uptick on the previous bar tells us nothing about the next bar so the odds is 50/50. However, if you believe that then you are telling people that you will never make money trading.
More...

you do know that efficient market theorists derive their findings from empiricial data? you also know that if a mathematician write something like "i don't have evidence but i believe" he is going to get an arse whooping of a lifetime by his collegues? and the biggest money makers (insitution arbing) comes from the assumption that the market is random?
 
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