Stops

Quote from tortoise:

Quote from volente_00:

I would say you need to work on your trading plan if you are exiting before your stop is hit and not giving you trade room to work.

Spot on. In fact, that's just what this is about - I am refining a trading plan (a work in progress) that developed over a period of about two years, on the heels of six years live position trading with index options spreads and about ten years active stock trading. I have found that intraday trading on the ES runs by a different set of "rules" -- metaphorically -- and this has been an adjustment: My previous experience is of little relevance here. On the ES, I've used real money over the past six months after six months of on-and-off simul-trading. I'm not displeased with the analytical foundation of my approach, but trade management is my Achilles heel, no question about it.



I would say you need to use a platform such as strategy runner that keeps stops on their servers and not at the cme.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I'm not contending that my 2-contract stop order is a tempting target, in and of itself. I'm saying that the nature of the ES involves, on a granular level. a fair amount Brownian motion, that does not impact the bigger picture. I'm looking to weed out the smaller for the larger. I don't see how my choice of trading platform affects this.



One day you will get it and understand what it truly means.

Oy.




Your previous post mentioned something about an "entity" gunning for your stops at certain levels. Certain front ends keep the stops on the servers and not on the exchange therefore your stop is hidden from others. I agree that stops tend to be placed at the same levels and a few fat fingers can trigger them, that is why you see these reversals in ES due to the fact that seller"s" will move it down to near a support level or slightly through and shorts will jump in and then the stops get trigger but then what happens next ? The sellers that moved it down are done selling, the weak hands who had their sell orders at that level are sold out, and the shorts who shorted the break of resistance are now looking to cover. The fat fingers who brought it down to that level are the same ones buying from the stop orders being triggered to sell and buying from those shorting the break of resistance,which in turns covers their shorts from higher and next thing you know the ES bounces because there is nothing left but strong hands holding the long positions now and the shorts squeeze it back up.
 
Quote from whitster:

my rule is that i never widen a stop, and i always set a stop @ entry. i have several setups i use, but the widest stop i ever use on a YM trade is 14 pts. 90% of my trades use a 10 pt stop. on a few setups i use only a 7 pt stop. for reference, a 8 pt YM stop is roughly equivalent to a 1 pt ES stop.

that works for me.

i will on occasion, exit before my stop is hit. but that is only based again on very specific rules. but i never WIDEN a stop. ever. period. the next trade is only a commission away. i don't try to salvage a bad trade.

as for targets, i am a bit more flexible. for example, at one of my setups if trading 3 cars, I scale out at 7 pt target, 11 pt target, then i have specific rules as to when i scale out the last.

i never add to a winning position on a futures trade. ever

and i never double down. ever

those are a few of the things that have worked for me, but of course they are consistent with my setups, my trading style, and my risk tolerance.

i'll say it again. i don;t think there is any TRADING VEHICLE (futures aren't investments for me, with the exception of some gold futures i've held for 2 yrs) that offers a better potential for return on capital.



whitster, what would you say your ROI is weekly on that 10k ?
 
i average about $1600 a week in my futures account.

and as for what i funnel it into, i do buy a lot of really conservative stuff. "grandma" stocks. i'm segregated into 4 different accounts.


i hesitate to give #'s like this, because then it sounds like bragging and/or people think im full of it. i don't care what people think, but i never volunteer a # like this... but you asked.

3 cars YM *30 pts a day = $450 a day, for example. i rarely use above 3.
 
Quote from risktaker:


Stops are mainly applicable to very trending instruments. Does the ES appear trendy to you?

This is so incorrect. When a trading vehicle is trending, you don't really need stops, because you take a position and enjoy the ride. Maybe a loose trailing stop, to lock in profits.

You need stops mostly in a choppy, sideways market when you can not be sure that after taking a position, the instrument will not start to trend one way or other and cause you losses.

Is the ES trendy? It is as trendy as the market itself, lately it has been sidewaying both in short and longer term....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

This is so incorrect. When a trading vehicle is trending, you don't really need stops, because you take a position and enjoy the ride. Maybe a loose trailing stop, to lock in profits.

You need stops mostly in a choppy, sideways market when you can not be sure that after taking a position, the instrument will not start to trend one way or other and cause you losses.

Is the ES trendy? It is as trendy as the market itself, lately it has been sidewaying both in short and longer term....


so would you guys say this was trending or choppy ?


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H06.E&v=s
 
Quote from tortoise:

Thoughts, anyone?

For the original question: I think you already answered your own question. You analized the problem, came up with a solution, and now you just have to execute that solution.

If not using a stop most of the time wouldn't have caused you a big loss, but eventually would have ended up in profit, then by all means, use only that chatastrophic stop loss. Of course you might want to give a try (maybe papertrading or using only 1 contract) to the theory first, and once you see that it is working, just switch to the new strategy.

That's it....
 
Quote from whitster:

i hesitate to give #'s like this, because then it sounds like bragging and/or people think im full of it.

Whitster,
I don't take it that way at all. It is good to know who is speaking from success or just from wishful thinking. And assuming you are speaking the truth, then it enables others to gauge your thoughts from this perspective.
Best,
Granville
 
Quote from whitster:

i average about $1600 a week in my futures account.

and as for what i funnel it into, i do buy a lot of really conservative stuff. "grandma" stocks. i'm segregated into 4 different accounts.


i hesitate to give #'s like this, because then it sounds like bragging and/or people think im full of it. i don't care what people think, but i never volunteer a # like this... but you asked.

3 cars YM *30 pts a day = $450 a day, for example. i rarely use above 3.


Thanks for being honest. Most people do not believe you can make those kind of return in futures continuously but I know it can be done.
 
Quote from volente_00:

so would you guys say this was trending or choppy ?

Depends on what timeframe you are looking at. If you use daily charts, then it didn't move, that was a Doji.... :)
 
thank YOU volente.

and as another example, using the same basic setups, i could theoretically trade 20 contracts (vs. 3) *30 pts and make 3g's a day

but i don't

not that i don't have enuf capital. 20 contracts on intraday doesn't require much in an account.

but it would cause we WAY MORE stress than i am willing/able to deal with, so i trade within my size and tolerance level. that imo is also a big part of success in futures. just because you CAN trade 10 or 20 contracts does not mean you should. because no matter how good your setups are, it is much harder to stomach with larger size. imo, that will take time. maybe in 5 years i will trade that size, but not now. no frigging way.

i think that is something that people discount - the emotional factor. if you are trading outside your comfort level, then objectivity goes out the door, and that's when people start gambling, doubling down, removing stops, stressing out and taking profits before targets, etc. etc. etc.

i do know a guy who trades 30 cars per order (he segregates into 5 buy orders).

he makes hyooooge bank, but he is also very very very experienced and he can handle that.

i don't care what anybody says, papertrading is not the same. i could papertrade 20 contracts (and have done so), but it aint the same as when your money is on the line.

another thing i learned is not to concentrate on P/L during your trades. save that for end of day analysis. concentrate on your setups. if you follow your setups and rules, the money takes care of itself. if you concentrate on the $$, you will not do well.

if your goal is the money - that is bad. your goal should be to follow your setups.
 
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