Stop these threads...
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Well, if you were dumber than the market then you would not be profitable, would you? By definition, being profitable requires you to outsmart the market. Therefore if you expect to make a profit on a trade, you expect to be "smarter" than the market in this particular trade. Otherwise you would not make the trade in the first place.
As for price efficiency being connected to the "smartness" of the market, I would have thought this was obvious. An efficient price is one which reflects the most accurate possible interpretation of all information available to all market participants. It is so accurate that it is impossible to trade on that price with a profitable trade expectation (otherwise it would not be an efficient price). If the most accurate forecast available to humanity is not smart, then what is it - dumb? If it was dumb then you would be trading on it to make a profit - but you aren't, are you? Therefore you think it is smart.
Finally, note that what the trader *claims* is his belief is totally irrelevant. If someone has a position which makes profits if stocks rise, and loses money if stocks fall, then they are bullish. They can make all the bearish comments they like, but the fact remains that they are positioned bullishly. Equally, anyone who places a trade expecting a profit is implicitly stating that they are smarter than the market. They can protest all they like that they are in fact dumber, but if they really thought this to be true then the trade would never have been made in the first place.
Firstly, I was wrong to say trading isn't about analysis. I meant, and should have said, that trading is not about "providing an analysis", to paraphrase what you claimed in an earlier post. Apologies for the confusion.
Having cleared that up, it should now be obvious why the methods of "gut-feel" traders are relevant - many such traders have done extremely well, without "providing an analysis" to justify their trades. So clearly providing an analysis is not necessary in order to trade or call a top successfully.
I also disagree that failing to provide an analysis is about ego. A trader may be calling a top or bottom without providing analysis for many reasons - perhaps for a desire to stimulate debate, or to find out information, or to gauge sentiment; perhaps they enjoy the challenge of making calls in public, where they can't hide their mistakes; maybe they want to discipline themselves into sticking by their original conviction. To assume it is purely down to ego is mistaken.
To paraphrase an earlier post of yours - have you supported your statements with facts, or are they just unsubstantiated personal opinion?
Yes, but I am not talking about the ability to observe what has happened in the past, or label it with hindsight. That, after all, is not what determines profitability. Profits are generated by being able to speculate successfully on *future* prices.
A trend-follower does not profit from the past trend, but rather from the future continuation of that trend. And that trend continuation cannot be defined or observed in advance.
Equally, one does not profit from the price action which generated your top-calling entry signal, but from a future reversal from that top. Which, as you have pointed out, cannot be defined or observed in advance either.
In both cases, the trend-follower and reversal trader, the trader is unable to define or observe in advance the only thing which determines his profitability - the future movement of prices.
Now, one may claim that past price behaviour can in some sense help to anticipate future prices. But if this is the case, what are the grounds for believing that this should be true for future trend continuations, and not for future trend reversals?
Discussing this sort of thing in Chit Chat is a waste of time, and you don't strike me as the sort who likes to waste time. You may be interested in a post I made to the following thread a day or so ago:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27729
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27729
You have a lot of nerve posting this. You were more responsible for bringing that thread down than anyone. Even after being asked multiple times by myself and others to discontinue the repetitive attacks and questions, you continued to do so, for reasons that must extend beyond that thread. For me to move that thread to chit chat because you did not like his premise or posts and thus decided to ruin the thread by attacking him would not be right. The thread would've died long ago had you not continued your attacks.
The way to decide the value of a thread is to ignore it if it doesn't appeal to you, not ruin it to try and get it off the board.
It occurs to me that there is plenty of room for a great many wonderful, interesting and enlightening posts by the great many awesome traders who are desperately bored of the top calling. EliteTrader is, after all, what the users make of it. Post some interesting ideas and spark a useful discussion. If one cannot, perhaps one should refrain from complaining when others follow.
Of course, if one is happier whining, then one also has that option. Alas, those whining threads will be shifted here to Chit-Chat, where they find much companionship.
Of course, if one is happier whining, then one also has that option. Alas, those whining threads will be shifted here to Chit-Chat, where they find much companionship.
As long as you brought it up, it seems to me that the moderators do their share of whining as well, particularly about the lack of substantive posts and threads, even though the reason for this to a large extent is their inability or sometimes refusal to control their own threads.
Why on earth should someone trouble to post "interesting ideas" when the moderators do little or nothing to keep the jackals off his back?