Stop these threads...

[Dustin]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Now there's a statement that just cries out for support of some kind

I said MOSTLY...and it's just based on personal experience.

 

[zdreg]

this thread hit home with alot of people. 11 pages since this morning is quite alot.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Dustin:

I said MOSTLY...and it's just based on personal experience.

The "mostly" part doesn't matter much. Your statement implies that you know all the guys on ET who are making a living at this (you apparently have decided what constitutes a "good" living and that all these guys meet that criterion) and that you know what strategies and tactics all of these guys employ (otherwise you wouldn't be able to state that they mostly use a given strategy or tactic or strategy set, and I find that unlikely).

Then there's always the niggling problem of all those who are employing exactly the same strategies and tactics and doing miserably.

Hence my comment about support.

 

[CalTrader]

Quote from abogdan:

.... But I have managed not to become a frustrated, bitter, angry and paranoid dude like many of my colleagues. And I agree with you, life is tough, but if you share your thoughts you become tougher. That is my opinion and I respect yours.

So have I ... and EXACTLY the reason I decide to leave academia and start businesses. I simply did not like the majority of the people with which I worked and thought I could do better - and I have.

Similarly I respect your opinion as I do for most people - except those that dont carry on a civilized dialogue - unfortunately its not the majority of people that post here ......

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from zdreg:

this thread hit home with alot of people. 11 pages since this morning is quite alot.

They always do. Check Feedback since all of this has been said before. Many times.

 

[zdreg]

Quote from dbphoenix:

They always do. Check Feedback since all of this has been said before. Many times.

right- people like to repeat what they consider to be important

 

[Cutten]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Baloney. Calling tops and bottoms isn't about trading; it's about ego. If it were about trading, then an analysis would be provided.

Trading isn't about analysis. How many people correctly analysed the dot.coms as overvalued in the late 90s? They were totally right in their analysis, and totally wrong in their trading. Equity analysts are famed for their utter inability to predict stock prices. So clearly analysis is not the defining factor in trading.

Trading decisions can quite legitimately be based on experience, intuition, market feel or whatever you want to call it. Some of the best traders around use pure gut feel, and think most tools of analysis are completely worthless.

As for calling tops, if it is possible for a trader to tell when a trend is going to occur, then why is it not also possible for a trader to tell when a top is going to occur?

 

[abogdan]

Quote from Cutten:

Trading isn't about analysis. ...
... if it is possible for a trader to tell when a trend is going to occur, then why is it not also possible for a trader to tell when a top is going to occur?

I think trading is all about analisys and decision making!
I also think that there is a big difference between "trends" and "tops". Trend is what you have observed on the set of data and the "top" is some point in the future that you are trying to guess about.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from Cutten:

As for calling tops, if it is possible for a trader to tell when a trend is going to occur, then why is it not also possible for a trader to tell when a top is going to occur?

Would it be possible that:

Tops are not "Called" by any smart traders, as they are simply produced merely by so-called "Stops hunting" process?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Cutten:

Trading isn't about analysis. How many people correctly analysed the dot.coms as overvalued in the late 90s? They were totally right in their analysis, and totally wrong in their trading. Equity analysts are famed for their utter inability to predict stock prices. So clearly analysis is not the defining factor in trading.

Trading decisions can quite legitimately be based on experience, intuition, market feel or whatever you want to call it. Some of the best traders around use pure gut feel, and think most tools of analysis are completely worthless.

As for calling tops, if it is possible for a trader to tell when a trend is going to occur, then why is it not also possible for a trader to tell when a top is going to occur?

You're making illogical assumptions again. Perhaps "some" of the "best traders" do use "pure gut feel", but so what? How many people use pure gut feel and blow up? How many of the best traders are very analytical? Even if some of the "best traders" use pure gut feel, that implies nothing for what one should be doing in his own trading life.

And perhaps analysis is irrelevant to trading success. Pay no attention to trend or lack thereof, enter at random, exit at random, don't use targets or stops of any sort. Sure sounds like a recipe for success to me

And as for the trend comment, a trend is defined as it occurs. A top is defined in hindsight.