Stop predicting

Quote from kid.fx.cross:

a good money management strategy will put you in, sometimes at a profit, sometimes at a loss.

so, I have very little in common with a breakout trader, and conversely with a Martingaler. Because good money management requires you play both sides of the aisle. And show no allegiance to either.

It helps if you predict right, but predicting is no longer mandatory for survival. Anybody can make money if they predict right.

Like I said at the beginning, perhaps it would be more profitable to devote time and energy to money management rather than predicting.
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Ok, this is the part that isn't clear. The strategy you originally described seemed to still be directional. (paraphrased, if I understood it correctly: Take a full directional position at a single price level, scale out of a loss, possibly holding a chunk indefinitely even as it continues against you, but scale back in using stop orders if it reverses in the 'predicted' direction).

But you alluded to 'staying spread'. Taking US stock index futures as an example, can you give an applicable example of your strategy?

Thanks.
 
ok, but just remember, this is the psycho forum, not the trading or trade management forum. Your infatuation with my particular trading strategy which just happens to be working at the moment is troublesome.

The real battle goes on inside the mind.

Both for the predictors and the money managers.

They are both subject to gullibility.

Wouldn't it be nice if all I had to do was set up a proper money management program and always make money?
 
Quote from kid.fx.cross:

ok, but just remember, this is the psycho forum, not the trading or trade management forum. Your infatuation with my particular trading strategy which just happens to be working at the moment is troublesome.
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If you say so :)
 
Quote from murrica:

Not sure if this belongs in psychology. If not, my apologies.
1) Stop trying to predict the turn.
All on-topic and constructive input is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
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Quote from murrica:

Like this answer, but few things:

1) Looking for swing trades

2) Current market environment (US stock indexes) is quite unfavorable for counter-trend (short) swing trades. Things could get much worse for the bears before they get better (max pain scenario).
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Predictions:
#1 - Current (since when for the timing).
#2 - Counter-trend.
#3 - Short.
#4 - Swing trades.
#5 - Get much worse for the bears.
#6 - Before they get better.
#7 - Max pain scenario.
#8 - (you already got some other scenarios in mind as well).
#9 - ...
 
Quote from murrica:

Ok, this is the part that isn't clear. The strategy you originally described seemed to still be directional. (paraphrased, if I understood it correctly: Take a full directional position at a single price level, scale out of a loss, possibly holding a chunk indefinitely even as it continues against you, but scale back in using stop orders if it reverses in the 'predicted' direction).

But you alluded to 'staying spread'. Taking US stock index futures as an example, can you give an applicable example of your strategy?

Thanks.
More...
yeah, you pretty much got it. It is very easy in forex. With stock indexes, ES, YM and NQ are so closely correlated I don't see how you could do it.

Maybe ES vs ZN vs CL vs GC, I don't know, that's too complicated and way more expensive for me.

Getting back to predicting, the trade is more of a business rather than guessing what will happen.

Like Allstate. They make money if there is no hurricane, yet, they can survive Hurricane Sandy. So, they make really good money on average weather.

But they have shareholders to answer to, and returns are expected to be rather conservative. The independent trader is way the heck out there on a limb.

If you want to talk about average returns take it to trading or trade management.

If you want to talk about risking it all, the psycho forum is the right place to be.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could make oversized returns without taking oversized risks?

Taking risks which would kill an average man is what they pay you for.

Many are called, few are chosen.

If you don't like it, get a job working for Geico. Or take up knitting.
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Predictions:
#1 - Current (since when for the timing).
#2 - Counter-trend.
#3 - Short.
#4 - Swing trades.
#5 - Get much worse for the bears.
#6 - Before they get better.
#7 - Max pain scenario.
#8 - (you already got some other scenarios in mind as well).
#9 - ...
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Ok, point well taken.

Should have clarified what was originally meant: "Stop predicting" == "Stop trying to predict the exact extreme of an extended one-sided move"

:)
 
Quote from kid.fx.cross:

yeah, you pretty much got it. It is very easy in forex. With stock indexes, ES, YM and NQ are so closely correlated I don't see how you could do it.

Maybe ES vs ZN vs CL vs GC, I don't know, that's too complicated and way more expensive for me.

Getting back to predicting, the trade is more of a business rather than guessing what will happen.

Like Allstate. They make money if there is no hurricane, yet, they can survive Hurricane Sandy. So, they make really good money on average weather.

But they have shareholders to answer to, and returns are expected to be rather conservative. The independent trader is way the heck out there on a limb.

If you want to talk about average returns take it to trading or trade management.

If you want to talk about risking it all, the psycho forum is the right place to be.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could make oversized returns without taking oversized risks?

Taking risks which would kill an average man is what they pay you for.

Many are called, few are chosen.

If you don't like it, get a job working for Geico. Or take up knitting.
More...

re: Spreading -- thanks.

re: Risk -- You know, you are clearly right. Small traders need to know that their only hope is to take huge risks, lay it all on the line, and be responsible for their oversized bets. And, go back to their Customer Service job at Geico if they are not 'chosen'.
 
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