Stocks that shoudn't be where they are

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from 1nibbler:

what gives people??? After all this time, stock_trad3r is finally saying something negative (or realistic) and ya'll give him grief..... There's just no pleasing some people.

Agree.

Anyway, looks like Gamestop insiders are dumping:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GME

Gamestop is another CROX or heelys in the making. I can just sense it.

Will I short it now? Nope. Wait till they drop a earnings bomb and then ride it to single digits (Which is where I really think GME is headed).

 

[blackchip]

CMG seemed like a giant Mexican rice roll.

But people used to flock there.

Taco Bell rules and it will always be so.

 

[frank grimes]

GME is a flat out buy,...ehy????because stuck_trad3r feels otherwise...sell puts, and calls...it has the stuck_trad3r approval

 

[dcraig]

Quote from tradestrong:

Wrong...restaurants are fairly recession proof. Eating out and entertainment are fairly stable entities in any market.

While their overall sales will come down as they will in every industry, overall, the restaurant business can hold it's own with a decent amount of strength in a bad economy.

Unweighted index of 56 stocks (excluding BB Stocks) classified in Restaurant industry by Yahoo finance:

 

[NY0BScalper]

While I personally held the belief that we will be entering a 2-3 year bear market/recession with the S&P touching 1120, it appears that we are now at a market bottom. I can't think of any indicator more bullish than stocktrad3r going short. The time to buy is now. S&P to make new all time highs in 2008.

 

[tradestrong]

Quote from dcraig:

Unweighted index of 56 stocks (excluding BB Stocks) classified in Restaurant industry by Yahoo finance:

You're putting up a chart comparing the restaurant industry to the S&P 500?. jeez...why don't you compare the energy industry to the financial industry...after all, it shouldn't matter whether their volatility and correlations are completely different....right?

Restaurant stocks have much higher volatility then the S&p 500...so naturally, they will either gain or fall as a whole at a much higher percentage.

Now compare the restaurant industry to the financial industry (which historically has a much lower beta), and see which industry is suffering more.

"Theoretically", with a much lower beta, the restaurant industry should be crashing at a much higher rate than the financials, but the reason they aren't is because financials suffer at a much higher degree during a recession than the restaurant industry, (and of course the subprime crisis is compounding the carnage.), but anyways, the point is that restaurants are going to suffer much less than most industries in a bear market.

You can't just willy nilly pick a benchmark to use as "a matter of fact" for comparison of an industry.

 

[dcraig]

Quote from tradestrong:

You're putting up a chart comparing the restaurant industry to the S&P 500?. jeez...why don't you compare the energy industry to the financial industry...after all, it shouldn't matter whether their volatility and correlations are completely different....right?

Restaurant stocks have much higher volatility then the S&p 500...so naturally, they will either gain or fall as a whole at a much higher percentage.

Now compare the restaurant industry to the financial industry (which historically has a much lower beta), and see which industry is suffering more.

"Theoretically", with a much lower beta, the restaurant industry should be crashing at a much higher rate than the financials, but the reason they aren't is because financials suffer at a much higher degree during a recession than the restaurant industry, (and of course the subprime crisis is compounding the carnage.), but anyways, the point is that restaurants are going to suffer much less than most industries in a bear market.

You can't just willy nilly pick a benchmark to use as "a matter of fact" for comparison of an industry.

Why can't I compare restaurants to S&P ? So what if they have a theoretically larger beta than financials or S&P. I'll bet resource stocks have a higher beta than S&P as well. Or Ag Chem for that matter.

 

[pumpanddumper]

How about PCLN and AMZN.

Those two really piss me off along with DECK.

Fucking reverse splits usually never work but has with PCLN. I think they 6-1 reverse split about 5 years ago. I hate William Shattner and their commercials.

 

[Bigpipn]

Restaurants are hurting. Bad. I had a discussion with a trading partner about restaurants and I made a bold prediction that one of the big names will be bought out by year's end. I am watching Ruby Tuesday and TGI Fridays. I see Darden Restaurants sliding immensely but making a huge acquisition.

It sounds stupid to say it now but I was watching Circuit City and knew something was up with that put to call ratio.

I'm not a big fan of stock-trading because of so much inside trading but there are some great opportunities out there and I fully intend on taking advantage of them.

Stoney's PLD call could be huge too.

 

[tradestrong]

Quote from dcraig:

Why can't I compare restaurants to S&P ? So what if they have a theoretically larger beta than financials or S&P. I'll bet resource stocks have a higher beta than S&P as well. Or Ag Chem for that matter.

You can't compare them with the S&P (or Chem) because the volatilities are much different. You need to risk adjust the restaurant index to get a more clear comparison.

I don't have time right now to explain it. I'll follow up later tonight.