Stocks going through the floor
- Thread starter PohPoh
- Start date
SPEND SPEND SPEND and SPEND MORE......
I have a long-term - two years is the typical holding period - set of models for picking sectors to buy and hold, via mutual funds, or, these days, ETFs.
I've sold the following, in the order that you see below, over the past half year:
1 - Europe. As this is partially a play on a falling dollar, this confused me until I got the signal to also get out of...
2 - Utilities, which are interest-rate sensitive. Rising rates are a negative here, but positive for the dollar, which has been steady this year.
3 - Leisure - I'm wondering about this one, but this could either be signaling a recession or an industry-specific problem, and the one I see here is the overcapacity coming on in gambling, where everyone is piling into Macao, for instance.
But I still have strong signals to buy in energy and, strongest of all, gold. This seems to stand in contradiction to a steady dollar, but maybe there'll be action in some other currency, or maybe the rise of China and India will simply increase demand for luxury items of all sorts, including those with gold in them.
The simplest explanation though, given that combo of sectors, is inflation, not just in the US, but worldwide. That, I think, is probably where we're really headed.
I've sold the following, in the order that you see below, over the past half year:
1 - Europe. As this is partially a play on a falling dollar, this confused me until I got the signal to also get out of...
2 - Utilities, which are interest-rate sensitive. Rising rates are a negative here, but positive for the dollar, which has been steady this year.
3 - Leisure - I'm wondering about this one, but this could either be signaling a recession or an industry-specific problem, and the one I see here is the overcapacity coming on in gambling, where everyone is piling into Macao, for instance.
But I still have strong signals to buy in energy and, strongest of all, gold. This seems to stand in contradiction to a steady dollar, but maybe there'll be action in some other currency, or maybe the rise of China and India will simply increase demand for luxury items of all sorts, including those with gold in them.
The simplest explanation though, given that combo of sectors, is inflation, not just in the US, but worldwide. That, I think, is probably where we're really headed.
We'll retest/challenge the SP high (or take it out) within the next 8 to 10 trading days. There might be some "noise" on a few sessions, but barring a devastating report, we're still in a bull market both long term (even though extended somewhat) and reacting back into short term bullish activity.
That's how the odds lay for where we should place our trades ... looking for good R/S stocks and those stocks with good longer term R/S that have recently pulled back slightly.
Ah hell, just buy an @ssload of SP emini contracts long ... using a semi-loose stop. Cover near recent highs.
AMGN
That's how the odds lay for where we should place our trades ... looking for good R/S stocks and those stocks with good longer term R/S that have recently pulled back slightly.
Ah hell, just buy an @ssload of SP emini contracts long ... using a semi-loose stop. Cover near recent highs.
AMGN
Grail says...There is no way an investor would be concerned about the condition of today's market The market is above its 50ma, 100ma, 150ma and 200ma. It is not anywhere near a crucial point
Grail I'll have to respectfully disagree here. The S&P is today perhaps as few as 2 days away from an all time high. That is a very crucial point in my way of thinking, and a very strong point of resistance. I prefer to wait and see whether we blow through it on strong volume and good internals or whether we stall and fall back. I never like to enter a long position just below strong resistance whether trading or investing. Trading, we are far enough away to enter, but investing -- there i have to disagree.
Grail I'll have to respectfully disagree here. The S&P is today perhaps as few as 2 days away from an all time high. That is a very crucial point in my way of thinking, and a very strong point of resistance. I prefer to wait and see whether we blow through it on strong volume and good internals or whether we stall and fall back. I never like to enter a long position just below strong resistance whether trading or investing. Trading, we are far enough away to enter, but investing -- there i have to disagree.
Well, this makes sense given the fact that interest rates are about half of what they should be thanks to our beloved Fed and the cooperation of the other world banking systems.
However, this liquidity bubble won't burst until someone blinks first...that would be "helicopter Ben", and he ain't blinking at the moment.
If and when he does and we see a 6 handle on the 10 year note interest, look out below. 1987 deja vu all over again.
The Fed is rudderless right now....as the numbers on GDP, prices paid, wholesale price index, etc, are all screwed up because of outsourcing (see recent Business Week article). We are just adrift right now and ready to hit the rocks or go over the waterfall.
I think where we really disagree is probably on the definition of investor. To me, an investor will hold a stock at least a year. After all, they like the fundamentals of the company and believe it to be a company that will grow. Given that definition most investors will buy more of their stock when it moves close to its 50ma. They look at the drop as a buying opportunity, not something where caution is necessary. A couple of days ago the S&P was close to its 50ma. Again, buying opportunity, not a time for concern unless it stays below that average for quite some time.
Investors don't call tops in the market.