Stocks are the most overvalued in nearly 40 years. Thank the fed.

S2007S · Jan 17, 2020

dozu888 said:
2% too low... should keep pace with the QQQ which is 5%

Well when the QQQ is down 23% I'll only be down about 8.3%

dozu888 · Jan 17, 2020

Overnight said:
I understand that I am missing a big piece of the huge cycle we have been in since the dot.com boomage, so my long-term analysis is flawed.

Without going over the basic idea that calling a bull market, in the middle of a charging run north is irrelevant, will you promise to start calling out the next correction, before it happens? Live?

sigh... in the middle of the charging run? even if 2020 returns 25%, that's only 0.1% per trading day.... and the way I called it is obviously not based on the 'charging run'.... I am disappointed you failed to see this?

anyway - that's fine, yeah I will call the next correction, but it cannot be pin point accurate because the tops are decided by secret meetings... I can only give the increasing probability that my boys will kick off a round of violent shake.

dozu888 · Jan 17, 2020

S2007S said:
Well when the QQQ is down 23% I'll only be down about 8.3%

I first thought your 8.3% means some kind of fixed income mix.... then I saw your other post about small caps?

GET OUT OF SMALL CAPS!

they are dead... this economy is all about the mega techs... and IWM is the only index severely over valued.

Overnight · Jan 17, 2020

dozu888 said:
sigh... in the middle of the charging run? even if 2020 returns 25%, that's only 0.1% per trading day.... and the way I called it is obviously not based on the 'charging run'.... I am disappointed you failed to see this?

anyway - that's fine, yeah I will call the next correction, but it cannot be pin point accurate because the tops are decided by secret meetings... I can only give the increasing probability that my boys will kick off a round of violent shake.

And I am disappointed you fail to see how dangerous it can be to tell people to put their home up for collateral to go all in on a "feeling" we are not going into a bad time in the market. This election WILL be different this time.

Maybe instead of telling them to go all in on QQQ, tell them to go all in long on VIX?

dozu888 · Jan 17, 2020

Overnight said:
And I am disappointed you fail to see how dangerous it can be to tell people to put their home up for collateral to go all in on a "feeling" we are not going into a bad time in the market. This election WILL be different this time.

Maybe instead of telling them to go all in on QQQ, tell them to go all in long on VIX?

sigh - you are not getting it... that's ok.

I'd thought with these live calls plus the ones in my other thread folks can see the way I read it is far superior than the conventional ways.... how can a 'feeling' be so accurate to never miss a live call?

have you considered the possibility that this dozu guy is not only a real trader, but perhaps one of the best?

Overnight · Jan 17, 2020

dozu888 said:
...

have you considered the possibility that this dozu guy is not only a real trader, but perhaps one of the best?

No, because you have already made your bones with the market in whatever way you did, stated that you are a non-trader, and that you have enough money to retire. So now you armchair quarterback the market.

dozu888 · Jan 17, 2020

Overnight said:
No, because you have already made your bones with the market in whatever way you did, stated that you are a non-trader, and that you have enough money to retire. So now you armchair quarterback the market.

right, so how did i make the bones... i am trying to show how to trade with 'seeing other people's cards'.

jys78 · Jan 17, 2020

OK thanks Fed. Sure it looks overbought by many measures. But guess what? It could double (or more) again from here. Key is to be adaptable and recognize that the future won't look like the past.

S2007S · Jan 21, 2020

Paul Tudor Jones says this ‘crazy’ stock market run reminds him a lot of early ’99

PUBLISHED TUE, JAN 21 20207:34 AM ESTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Yun Li @YUNLI626

KEY POINTS

Paul Tudor Jones said at the World Economic Forum that the stock market today reminds him of early ’99.
“We are just again in this craziest monetary and fiscal mix in history. It’s so explosive. It defies imagination,” he said.
Asked if he wants to get off the train in the bull run, Jones said, “Not really. The train has got a long, long way to go if you think about it.”
However, Jones warned that the “curveball” to derail the bull market could be the outbreak of a new coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/pau...market-run-reminds-him-a-lot-of-early-99.html

murray t turtle · Jan 21, 2020

Clubber Lang said:
QE infinity.
ZIRP in the US for a decade...........
Anytime the S&P comes close to its 200 day the Fed members fall over themselves to comfort investors with promises of more free money.
What could possibly go wrong??

WELL DOW 30/DIA PE ratio is low about 16; that is real low, i'm using IBD data, but DOW is not really much of a benchmark.As far as tech stocks.LOL PE ratios are pretty much useless.

But good timing;
i may take partial profits, NOT because of DOW PE ratio...................................