Accounts die two sort of deaths: the big hit and the bleeding from a thousand cuts.
Stocks Analysis Using Price Action
- Thread starter Gringo
- Start date
Accounts die two sort of deaths: the big hit and the bleeding from a thousand cuts.
Gringo, thank you for taking the time to draw up this chart and discuss the trade with me.
I will attempt to answer your questions as best I can. In regards to holding while mini-support fails instead of exiting, I suppose in part that it is a time-frame consideration. I intend on waiting for a show of weakness on the daily before exiting. However, that does not excuse my sloppy entry.
You make a good point about dropping TASR sooner, and especially after an entry so late on an unsustainable demand line. I appreciate the accountability that you are providing me with. Looking back, I can see that it was unwise to enter so far away from the demand line that I am basing my trade off of, and hold it for the inevitable return to support.
Price closed on top of the current demand line, and I cannot say if it will hold tomorrow or not, though I agree that your chart has painted a convincing picture for the anticipation of weakness rather than strength that I did not grasp at the time of entry. If it breaks, I will exit.
I can clearly see now that the trade was definitely not an optimal one, and I also admit that it was taken too hastily; your post has caused me to consider things that I hadn't taken the time to analyze before entry.
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I am definitely still in the learning process of understanding how to spot and prioritize zones of support and resistance. I feel that I do well with volume and channel considerations, but fall short of keeping a healthy view of the forest as you've pointed out. It's definitely something I would like to improve upon.
However, my goal is to be able to find trades within the small zones you've listed, even if I am currently going about it in an imperfect manner. I am primarily interested in price improvement per unit of time for holding stock positions.
I would rather have held TASR for the past few days trip off the bottom of the trading range you've posted than from 8.57 to the high due to this reason. This is my motivation for attempting to delve into the less significant zones you've pointed out, and if the venture proves to be unprofitable than I will go back to staying away and picking the low hanging fruit.
I deeply appreciate the time you've taken to help me understand my errors here. Please feel free to continue challenging any unsound viewpoints you see me display. I am very grateful for the refining effect that your insights bring.
Heroic,
I am showing 30 mins, similar to how you're looking at it. Notice the use of SL/DL lines and S/R. Notice the importance of having S/R from a larger frame than looking at every congestion as a significant S/R.
When you commit your funds you want to have some run. You're not scalping here are you? The point is to make money. The point is to make money. Keep that in mind.
The green dots are long entries. Try to enter closest to a significant S/R. The later entries are riskier and riskier. And please bring back your SL/DL lines. When you are looking at 30 mins you can use RET off a pot. S or R from a daily. Notice the price rejection around 16 potential support. In real time we won't know whether it's just a normal pullback or a real effort by demand to fight supply over there. It's after the SL break and retracement of price, that fails to continue downward, that we have a higher probability of an up move.
p.s. It's 4am for me here. I'm going to kick your buttocks of you don't get it soon.
Gringo
I am showing 30 mins, similar to how you're looking at it. Notice the use of SL/DL lines and S/R. Notice the importance of having S/R from a larger frame than looking at every congestion as a significant S/R.
When you commit your funds you want to have some run. You're not scalping here are you? The point is to make money. The point is to make money. Keep that in mind.
The green dots are long entries. Try to enter closest to a significant S/R. The later entries are riskier and riskier. And please bring back your SL/DL lines. When you are looking at 30 mins you can use RET off a pot. S or R from a daily. Notice the price rejection around 16 potential support. In real time we won't know whether it's just a normal pullback or a real effort by demand to fight supply over there. It's after the SL break and retracement of price, that fails to continue downward, that we have a higher probability of an up move.
p.s. It's 4am for me here. I'm going to kick your buttocks of you don't get it soon.
Gringo
Haha, thanks again for taking the time to drive your point home. Closed both positions early this open, and it hasn't been looking good since.
Spot on analysis. It's clear that I am getting a sloppy and off-track. I'm going to cool it with the stocks, and take a while to re-group.
Definitely will be reviewing your posts and taking some time to try to learn to sync all of the information available before making a decision to get involved.
I don't know where I would be without a swift kick in the butt every once in a while. Seems like I need one more often than most, in fact.
DAL price didn't continue down and started actually to climb back up. This is something that's not what we had anticipated, meaning it's not a good short for now. Notice the newly drawn hinge. Perhaps it is only a rest before going back up. We'll find out soon enough.
Notice how quickly we just exited when things didn't pan out. No hassle and no worries. If it doesn't work, just get out.
Notice how quickly we just exited when things didn't pan out. No hassle and no worries. If it doesn't work, just get out.
DAL again seems like a short today. Price broke out of the hinge, retraced back and is failing now. Of course the price has travelled some distance already, and an entry earlier in the day obviously would have been better. What would have been even better is to have had initiated a short position before 28 when the first call for a short was made. Nonetheless, it still might be the beginning of a major fall. One will of course need to be aware of identifying price behaviour if turns less desirable.
Gringo
Gringo