Stockpickers and mediocre returns

F

Flowfollower

I read something on Twitter about AMZN giving a 1000 fold return over 23 years.

Amazing everybody said!!

It got me thinking.

So I plugged the numbers into a compound calculator and it gave a CAGR of 35%. Excellent over 23 years for A SINGLE STOCK but an eye-opener for many who don't understand compounding and diversification.


To land an AMZN, not only do you need extreme amounts of luck on stock selection but also the fortitude to hold for the whole journey.

Then you also have to hold only that stock ie NO diversification, as diversification would dilute that 35% CAGR.

Assuming thePareto Principle (80% of gains come from 20% of stock picks), then a realistic portfolio return for say 10 stocks that include 2 AMZNs and all others small losers and small winners that contra one another, would be about 7% pa. Hardly index beating!

These are my thoughts on why stock picking with thoughtless diversification is an alluring trap.

So what's the alternative? Concentrate positions and use a strategy that allows one to rotate positions as much as possible without sacrificing the trading edge.

Thoughts?
 
The canslim method of O'Neil catches these kind of stocks. As for being in it for the whole ride depends on your objectives. You could easy make exits that allow you to stay in it with a reminder. You only need a long term commitment.
 
Both above approaches would not have caught the 1000 fold return on AMZN which is my point ie those who point to such returns from a stock are not considering reality
 
You need to do more research. Amazon would be 'caught' as soon the positive earnings where doubling each year. Other example is Apple that had even a more return then Amazon. Apple is 'caught' around the iTunes store introduction. It went from around $15 to over $1000, then splited 10 to 1, another run up to 400, and now it will be splited again 4 to 1. Every FAANG stock would have been 'caught'. The reason I'm sure about it is because I have seen them come up at those times.
 
Hi, I think you are missing the fact that dollar has lost a lot of value in 23 years.
At the dot.com bubble one AMZN share was buying 0.3 oz og Gold and now it is buying 1.7 oz, so the increase is 5,7 times in real money terms.

I think you increase the likelihood of selecting a portfolio with more stars like AMZN when you look for names with high growth ratios of earnings, revenue and volume (in terms of users, shipments, clicks etc.).
 
danielc1 said:
You need to do more research. Amazon would be 'caught' as soon the positive earnings where doubling each year. Other example is Apple that had even a more return then Amazon. Apple is 'caught' around the iTunes store introduction. It went from around $15 to over $1000, then splited 10 to 1, another run up to 400, and now it will be splited again 4 to 1. Every FAANG stock would have been 'caught'. The reason I'm sure about it is because I have seen them come up at those times.
More...

Doesn't CANSLIM use a 7% stop loss? Have none of these stocks corrected more than 7% ?
 
Poljot said:
Hi, I think you are missing the fact that dollar has lost a lot of value in 23 years.
At the dot.com bubble one AMZN share was buying 0.3 oz og Gold and now it is buying 1.7 oz, so the increase is 5,7 times in real money terms.

I think you increase the likelihood of selecting a portfolio with more stars like AMZN when you look for names with high growth ratios of earnings, revenue and volume (in terms of users, shipments, clicks etc.).
More...

That just sounds like survivorship bias. How many high growth companies from 20 years ago are still around and performing today?
 
Flowfollower said:
Doesn't CANSLIM use a 7% stop loss? Have none of these stocks corrected more than 7% ?
More...
Canslim has a 7% stop loss from the buy point. If a stock continues to perform you can use a trailing stop, not necessarily at 7%.

There is no law that says you cannot rebuy a stock if you sell it. A trader would have been in and out of AMZN several times as it ebbed and flowed.
 
I like Canslim,but their metodology is not to catch the big move.From what I remember,they exit at apx 20 percent profit,unless it makes the move in under 4 weeks..



danielc1 said:
The canslim method of O'Neil catches these kind of stocks. As for being in it for the whole ride depends on your objectives. You could easy make exits that allow you to stay in it with a reminder. You only need a long term commitment.
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top