Stock Swing Traders

Hello Steve,

You are correct,

I would not use specialists buying as an indicator to load up on size,
I would use it to gauge on the legitamcy of the move after I have put on some shares using my own methods OF course...,

Many start out moves will retrace, Sometims if it retraces too close to my stop I will look to either ADD shares or REDUCE shares so I don't have 3000 shares to chuck when it does jump down the window with no buyers in sight.

So If I throw out 800 shares/odd number I 'd like to watch how it prints, if its specialist, he will print it in one print 800 shares, I know his ass is there gobbling,
if he prints it 500 200 100 to retail , And the price gets stepped down, I know to get rid of my other shares ASAP once it drops below my stop because that is one death trap about to happen with no big players or spec support.


Thoughts?
 
This is false, the 800 share print does not tell you if the specialist is involved or not. It may be you marketed 800 shares to sell and an 800 share order to buy comes it at the same time. Your example would not tell me one way or the other what the spec is doing. The 500/200/100 prints doesnt really tell you anything necessarily either, sometimes the specialist walks away temporarily and it appears that there is no support. See, these guys know what levels people are buying or selling at and know where people have placed their stops. This is a game of thieves and criminals, and they will do whatever it takes to take your shares.


Quote from coolweb:

Hello Steve,

So If I throw out 800 shares/odd number I 'd like to watch how it prints, if its specialist, he will print it in one print 800 shares, I know his ass is there gobbling,
if he prints it 500 200 100 to retail , And the price gets stepped down, I know to get rid of my other shares ASAP once it drops below my stop because that is one death trap about to happen with no big players support.


Thoughts?
More...
 
1) the 800 from another buyer 800 market me out is very unlikely :)

2) the places where I enter are very key areas so its unlikely the specialist is about to step away.


So after drilling down those issues, you can see, its quite an indicator..

Its saved my ass /confirmed moves many times on seeing if there is actually any IMMEDIATE support.
 
Wrong again Coolweb, this is very common, unless you are trading a razor thin issue.




Quote from coolweb:

1) the 800 from another buyer 800 market me out is very unlikely :)
.
More...
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

Coolweb buddy;
Have thought about your questions for many months/years;
and so to do better than average, About 25% of time will want to overweight stock itself. [Since 25% of time stock ignores market]


:cool:
More...

What you mention is exercise for the mind

Although the 25% when the stock ignores the market isn't the idea of how it beats the market,

It would be the beta of the stock that would beat the market IMO.

I believe to minimize risk on all entry so If we have a 100% percentage

50% market
25% sector
25% stock

If we have
market UP
sector UP
stock UP , thats almost 0 risk if you know how to enter

If we have
market DOWN
sector UP
stock UP thats 50% risk of FAILURE of breakout

if we have

market UP
sector down
stock UP thats 75% risk of success

if we just have

market DOWN
stock UP
sector UP thats 50% risk of success


And 50% risk of success on a failed breakout =

stopped out


I think as traders, there are a lot of opportunities, Unless a stock is extremely well positioned to go up 100% a year,

Then we can take more chances
but if its going to go up 30% a year

Its best to have all your bases and % on your side.

50% + 25% + 25% +

And there is very low risk your breakout will fail.
 
Steve,
Many things work 100%

90% is just as good as 100%

When you learn how money is made in the real world, big money something you may not be accustomed to.


Its all about 100%.

Not 50%

I only bet on sure things.
 
If you only bet on sure things, why do you use stops?

Quote from coolweb:

Steve,
Many things work 100%

90% is just as good as 100%

When you learn how money is made in the real world, big money something you may not be accustomed to.


Its all about 100%.

Not 50%

I only bet on sure things.
More...
 
Quote from coolweb:

What you mention is exercise for the mind

Although the 25% when the stock ignores the market isn't the idea of how it beats the market,

It would be the beta of the stock that would beat the market IMO.

I believe to minimize risk on all entry so If we have a 100% percentage

50% market
25% sector
25% stock

If we have
market UP
sector UP
stock UP , thats almost 0 risk if you know how to enter

If we have
market DOWN
sector UP
stock UP thats 50% risk of FAILURE of breakout

if we have

market UP
sector down
stock UP thats 75% risk of success

if we just have

market DOWN
stock UP
sector UP thats 50% risk of success


And 50% risk of success on a failed breakout =

stopped out


I think as traders, there are a lot of opportunities, Unless a stock is extremely well positioned to go up 100% a year,

Then we can take more chances
but if its going to go up 30% a year

Its best to have all your bases and % on your side.

50% + 25% + 25% +

And there is very low risk your breakout will fail.
More...
===================

Good points, let me simplify something.

25% of time stock doesnt follow long term market trend ;
75% of time stock follows long term market. trend .
Forget about for now stocks that go bankrupt;
indexes dont go bankrupt.Long term trend is about 200 day s

Tested some oil/gas stocks following market 75% stock past 12 months today is helpful, accurate AVERAGE;
its pretty close to stock following market 75% of time, yes stock beta could beat market.

Also making point stocks follow long term DOW trend 75% of time, average with all the years of data.

However watch what happens when you look @ last 20 years;

HAL [excellant] up trends 15 out of last 20 years.[open to close price]

DOW average ,uptrends 15 out of last 20 years.

XOM uptrends 18 years out of last 20 years.

=================================
So while that 75% is an excellant guide;
followed too strictly over past 20 years you copuld lose 3 +years income with XOM, an above average performer over much time.

And I am talking about swing trading, not just long investing. So while William O Neil guide of all stocks following trend of market 75% of time may well be true for HAL;
since both HAL & DOW uptrended both 15 out of last 20 years.

However another reason I would not make a swing trade iron rule for that, even though it may help some ones profitabality to make it iron clad;
HAL only downtrended with DOW years 2000,2001.

Time wise in numbers, in 20 years HAL seemed to match DOW in yearly trends[open to close price];,
both had 15 up years out of 20 years ,
US dollar % wise HAL beat DOW unusualy well, last 20 years.

So William O Neil study about all stocks following market long term 2oo day trend ,75% of time is still on target, [all data];
especially for investors, far as I am concerned.


:cool:
 
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