Stock Swing Traders

lilduckling, steve, :D thanks!
yo, its not like I can blow up here lol


First trade:

TALX $33.40 entry
target: $36.70
reason: takeover priced @ $37 per share
stop : $32.80 todays low
r/r: 1:5

PPD $49.60 entry
target: high
reason: low p/e , super good service prepaid legal service
this is revlotuionary!
stop: 49.10
r/r: not calculated.


just 500 shares each, need a few warmups!


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MARKET direction: dead cat bounce.

All my stops will be around 1-2% from price. I'm still only comfortable with tight stops.
But I have a new method of reading VOLUME............ Yeay! Do be reminded... I am master of price action :D


my time frame = 2-3 weeks / real swing trading baby!

Some new revelations:

1) No fear.
2) If you ain't in the market, you can't make money!
3) If you are in the market too much, you can't make money!
4) Catalyst Info + T.A = Key to confident bets.
5) Absolutely no fear being stopped out.
Stop me out...
 
another revelation:

I don't have any "rules" anymore
I follow chart patterns, install a stop, install a target,
and pray to momma.

Just read on excuses like "didn't follow my rules today"
forget that rules shit. No dumb trading rules like trade before 10:00 , well actually I don't enter positions before 10:00 , thats piker thinking.
I can't remember all my 432 rules anyway.


Watch the pattern, if it looks right, boooyah from big daddy's stock trading account taking the offerrrr!

if it hits my stop, I exit.. and cry a little inside. Nobody can see anyway.
 
Did some statistics tonight

here are some results
81% of succeeding
45% of succeeding
68% of succeeding
55% of succeeding

of 4 techniques I use .... Looks like of shifty

but that 81% thing ... Wow Impreesive.
68% seems very nice as well.
55% Surprised me DAILY stats.
45% figures...

Going to exit PPD tomorrow (if it even flicks its eyebrows wrong tomorrow)

my statistics tell me I will be stopped out.
 
My priority will be attacking those 81% entry points
while sniping those 68% entry points as well...

Those 55% entry points will be considered ass to me.
Ass I don't want that is.
45% entry points will be considered as herpes.

----------------


If we betting big, its best we not LOSE.
 
PPD I closed out earlier today with a -.50 cents lost
Current positions TALX


TALX looking good, easiest arb of the century.
If I wasn't just coming back to trading,
I'd put a few million dollars margin on that trade without a sweat. Probably couldn't do that, but just saying :)

--------------

Goals for tonight: Looking for short positions.
 
radio one - short 6.75
bad earnings/ delisting

westwood one inc - short 6.67
bad earnings

positions:
radioone SHORT ===PROBABILITY 68%
westwood SHORT ===PROBABILITY 83%
TALX LONG ===PROBABILITY 68%


short/long 60%/40%

lets see if these probabilityes actually work :D
 
LOL this is funny. I left my account almost a full year and just came back trading again and here you are just came back from a few month off too. glad to see you trading again.
 
I'm going to sprinkle my thoughts with more thoughts then trades.

CAuse trades are just boring, you know I can trade, I know I can trade. Big woopy. I only jot down my trades, because I like a history of my trades, its nice to flip back and check my journal and see how I progressed.

-----------------


So anyway,

I'm thinking of KBH , countrywide , LEN , home builders, home lenders as
SHORT

Heres the thing though ,everybody staring at these bishes , so we need to wait for the right moment to short them
where our risk is minimal.

The reward will be high of course, we all know where these girls are going.

But as traders, we look at risk first, then reward. Reward shows us which forest to hunt in . Risk shows us where to aim our bullet considering we don't have many bullets.

We wait for the right moment...

so I'm waiting.
 
my aggression for trading will be jacked up 10x this year.
As in, when I trade, when I see the right opportunities, Its going to be buckwild.


The learning period is over, I'm ready to clash armour and just throw my money out there.

After we learn how to not to lose. We now proceed how to learn to WIN.

I know all my risks to my trades,
I'm not afraid to risk anymore.
I don't care if I get stopped out.

Money in the trading account isn't what I watch anymore.
I don't care if I lost -300 a day, or if I lost -1500 a day. All I watch is my R/R and my success % probability.

I'm not working on a salary.
I'm a gambler now. A sniper gambler who knows his odds.
Time to change into gam bling bling? as RM would say.


Fearless trading.
ALL IN.
 
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 09 Mar 07)
Beazer Homes USA (BZH, $35.97, NEUTRAL, TP $39.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Centex (CTX, $46.64, NEUTRAL, TP $53.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Countrywide Financial (CFC, $36.10, OUTPERFORM, TP $52.00, MARKET WEIGHT)
DR Horton (DHI, $24.42, NEUTRAL, TP $24.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Fannie Mae (FNM, $55.56, NEUTRAL, TP $63.00, MARKET WEIGHT)
Freddie Mac (FRE, $61.97, NEUTRAL, TP $71.00, MARKET WEIGHT)
Fremont General (FMT, $8.03)
H & R Block Inc. (HRB, $21.22)
Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, $29.34, NEUTRAL, TP $29.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
KB Home (KBH, $47.91, NEUTRAL, TP $51.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Lennar (LEN, $48.25, OUTPERFORM, TP $53.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC, $50.36, OUTPERFORM, TP $54.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
M/I Homes (MHO, $29.46, OUTPERFORM, TP $42.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
New Century Financial Corp (NEW, $3.21)
NVR Inc. (NVR, $700.00, NEUTRAL, TP $550.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Pulte (PHM, $28.76, NEUTRAL, TP $28.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Ryland Group (RYL, $46.80, UNDERPERFORM, TP $47.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Standard Pacific (SPF, $24.21, OUTPERFORM, TP $29.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
Toll Brothers (TOL, $28.85, NEUTRAL, TP $31.00, UNDERWEIGHT)
WCI Communities, Inc. (WCI, $20.00, UNDERPERFORM, TP $14.00, UNDERWEIGHT)


subprime
http://www.billcara.com/CS Mar 12 2007 Mortgage and Housing.pdf
 
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