Stock Pick Site:

Originally posted by Sam Contari
I would like to believe all of you that momentum is for real. But why do they not have a simple track record that even a dummy like myself can understand?

Like shortboy's track record:

2000 +26%
2001 +30%

the S&P:

2000 -10%
2001 -13%
More...

Let's compare apples to apples and not apples to oranges. Since the philosophy is to short stocks, let's see how well this questionable performance is.

Year 2000: If one was to short the Nasdaq on 12/31/99 on 2 to 1 margin at 4069 and cover at 2470 on 12/31/00 he would make 78% return. Or 39% return on a cash account. Both sounds a lot better than 26% which you had to pay a monthly fee for!

Year 2001: If one was to short the Nasdaq on 12/31/99 on 2 to 1 margin at 2470 cover at 1950 on 12/31/00 he would make 42% return. Or 21% return on a cash account. Sounds a lot better than when you combine both years together!

And all this with just two commissions charges ... oh my gawd ... I could have saved a bundle ... :)

Why should anyone pay for short recommendations, when shorting the entire Nasdaq market would have yielded BETTER results over the 24 months that you used in the track record?

I rest my case.

Tony

Disclosure: I do not know anything about that service and was only replying to the performance claims made by sam. This is not a personal attack on Sam or Shortboy.com rather than a LEGITIMATE question. I could have compared the returns to the short funds (double NDX etc.) to show that the performance in question is nothing but mediocre, but I did not feel the need to do so. Ultimately, the readers here must do their own DD.
 
Tony, since you may not know Sam Contari as well as the rest of us here on the board let me fill you in....he is here with a simple agenda, to promote shortboy.com Heck! he may even be Bill Ginsberg (owner of same site).

Almost all of his 50 some odd posts are regarding, defending, promoting, explaining, etc. shortboy.com Most of us here have Sam Contari on our ignore list (myself included) because of this.

This is just a friendly note because it is not wise to enter into a debate with him. I learned this early on when he could not distinguish the difference between annualized and normal returns but didn´t let that stop him from insulting me personally.

Regarding shortboy.com, you can search previous threads and discover all the criticism he has received. This includes magically reducing his theoretical portfolio from $500,000 to $100,000 to pump up his % returns. A five fold multiple <poof!> overnight.

-------------------------------
Sam, don´t bother replying to my message as you will not receive a reply...but then again knowing you, I know you probably will.
 
For the posts and information. I looked at tradetrek.com but it was just way too confusing to me. I received a private message about traderalliance.com and it was equally as confusing. Aitradesystems.com site is interesting and I'll look at it a bit more when I have the time. Shortboy.com looks like a dead end site. I've used Hotstix.com before and they know what they are doing, but they don't have enough picks. I signed up for the free trial at momentumstockplays.com last night and spent the better part of the day going through the archives. In my opinion, it's too good to be true.....what I'm looking for anyway. Does anyone know if this is a single individual or a group of individuals working together. Seems to me to be too much work for one person to accomplish. Anyway, thanks and I appreciate everyones input.
 
of course you won't be seeing this b/c I am on your ignore list.

So how did you know to respond?

I don't think Tony needs you, he's a big boy.

And the facts speak for themselves.

First, you bashed Shortboy on elitetrader for taking too much interest, and now, since that's not a "problem" for you anymore, you find another one. When did Shortboy need $500,000 in 2001? Did his portfolio EVER call for those funds? You can't have it both ways. Either too much interest or too little, right Babak? Let's concentrate on the TRADES and the CONSISTENT PROFIT since 6/99 thru 3/02. Isn't that what counts?? But the facts aren't important to you.

Sam

===

NEVER kid a kidder
 
no rebuttal to tony, sammy? HA! that figures. can't refute the truth can you ol' sammy boy. hehe.

tony, thanks for putting this in proper perspective. didn't see it till now.

ps in all future postings by you i will refer you back to this thread so be warned 'little'man.
 
You may have missed my point.

One question and one question only!

"Why should anyone pay for short recommendations, when shorting the entire Nasdaq market would have yielded BETTER results over the 24 months that you used in the track record?"

I don't care what shortboy shorts or does not short. What I care is if I pay a guru for services, he better outperform an index of FIVE THOUSAND STOCKS!

You can dress it up anyway you want. The fact is that the performance table you submitted for 2000 and 2001 could have easily been outperformed by shorting ONE SINGLE INDEX TRACKING STOCK!

Based on the numbers you provided in your post for 2000 and 2001, there is nothing you can say that will change this fact! Anyone who would have short QQQ would have done better than shortboy.

When the "buy and hold" (or better said, short and hold) is outperforming a guru short seller who has the ability to cherry-pick his stocks and time his entries perfectly, I'm sorry to say this but the guru is nothing more than a mediocre stock picker. Why should anyone pay this guy?

The prosecution rests. Let the jury decide this case.

Tony

PS: Sam/shortboy owner, In case you missed the other point as well, I have nothing against you, your website, your service, your picks, your track record or anything of the like. I was simply replying to performance numbers that were posted on this thread. You may be providing excellent service and do well for your customers. My rhetorical questions are simply based on 20/20 hindsight that a short position held for 24 months on QQQ would have done better than the stated returns.

I would also like to add that I respect those who actually post their returns. I wish more services would do so.

Peace my friends :)
 
That’s your own site isn't it bono?
I’ve been on its pretty good, not into penny shares but enjoyed the site.
 
And I respect your answer. I also agree with your answer, given the parameters you were given.

But you cannot take the top of the NASDAQ market and say "let's start there!" Shortboy began in 6/99 and the NASDAQ was at 2397.

So, the NASDAQ has gone from 2397 to 1877 (yesterday's close), in the 33 months Shortboy's been online. That's -22% over the period.

The S&P has gone from 1293 to 1166 (yesterday's close),
That's -10% over the period.

Shortboy has made in each year:

+11% in 7 months in 1999
+26% in 2000
+30% in 2001
+7% so far in 2002 (2 1/2 months)

So come on Tony, don't compare a short seller, who has consistently made money throughout the time he was online (Babak can vouch for that), to the top of the NASDAQ and say "from top to yesterday". That's not fair and you know it.

By the way, in 1999, the NASDAQ went from 2398 (in 6/99) to 4069 (12/31/99), for a gain of 70% in 7 months !! That BURIED mostly all short sellers, yet Shortboy MADE 11% on his portfolio during that time. Please give credit where credit is due.

I only give you the facts. And I very much respect your willingness to reply and explain yourself. You are a man of principle. And I respect you.

But these are the numbers that make up the track record. You can't pick and choose time periods that are convenient. If Shortboy started in 1/00 then you could compare him to a topping NASDAQ. BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE.

Shortboy entirely avoided a devastating rally in 1999 that knocked out mostly all of the short sellers, and had consistently made money throughout his almost 3 years online.

Anyway, thanks for the response, and you're a good man.

Sam
 
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