Stock Model
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
I am considering using this:
http://www.youtualfunds.com/cgi-per...yfstarthfds1&gclid=CPyz4aueoqsCFYYUKgod_CFvgQ
It would make it easier to track.
http://www.youtualfunds.com/cgi-per...yfstarthfds1&gclid=CPyz4aueoqsCFYYUKgod_CFvgQ
It would make it easier to track.
Model is doing very well (based on names that I chose to be long/short although timing has surely helped). The last piece of the puzzle is to do an efficient frontier to select weigths and better select choices. I have been busy with other things so have not made progress on this front, but soon.
We also could do much better in the following way. Sort those names into cyclical and growth names. Then, using the bias from FV described in this thread (I am just linking to the current last page):
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=142338&perpage=6&pagenumber=610
Decide whether to overweight growth or cyclical names. If FV is below SPX, be defensive, and if FV is above SPX, go into growth names. Here is a list of the nine sectors considered cyclical:
Basic Materials
Capital Goods
Communications
Consumer Cyclical
Energy
Financial
Health Care
Technology
Transportation
Growth is a moving target, but here is a good place to start:
http://www.kellyservices.us/web/us/...ips_march2010_fastest_growing_industries.html
We also could do much better in the following way. Sort those names into cyclical and growth names. Then, using the bias from FV described in this thread (I am just linking to the current last page):
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=142338&perpage=6&pagenumber=610
Decide whether to overweight growth or cyclical names. If FV is below SPX, be defensive, and if FV is above SPX, go into growth names. Here is a list of the nine sectors considered cyclical:
Basic Materials
Capital Goods
Communications
Consumer Cyclical
Energy
Financial
Health Care
Technology
Transportation
Growth is a moving target, but here is a good place to start:
http://www.kellyservices.us/web/us/...ips_march2010_fastest_growing_industries.html
Time to take account:
Symbol, Close, Entry, PnL
=========================
RVBD, $20.62, S 24.33, +3.71
AMZN, $223.23, S 233.86, +10.53
ACOM, $23.49, S 28.95, +5.46
HTWR, $60.35, S 55.99, -4.36
IPGP, $56.76, S 59.43, +2.67
PAY, $36.44, S 38.58, +2.14
WFC, $23.17, L 23.95, -.78
USB, $22.91, L 23.85, -.94
ASYS , $9.01, L 9.97, -.96
SPRD, $20.43, L 20.00, +.43
JCOM, $29.79, L 31.71, -1.92
AMED, $13.29, L 16.50, -3.21
MERC, $7.58, Avg 8.50, -.92
TQNT, $5.17, L 6.30, -1.13
========================
Total + 10.72
That is how Hedge Funds win regardless of market direction. This is a very rough system too, since it is not on the efficient frontier. Even if you say that most of the profit comes from AMZN which is a high priced stock, true, but the point is that in terrible markets long/short tends to outperform just long - one tends to lose less on down markets, and still win on up markets, with reduced risk.
You still need decent timing, and good choices.
Symbol, Close, Entry, PnL
=========================
RVBD, $20.62, S 24.33, +3.71
AMZN, $223.23, S 233.86, +10.53
ACOM, $23.49, S 28.95, +5.46
HTWR, $60.35, S 55.99, -4.36
IPGP, $56.76, S 59.43, +2.67
PAY, $36.44, S 38.58, +2.14
WFC, $23.17, L 23.95, -.78
USB, $22.91, L 23.85, -.94
ASYS , $9.01, L 9.97, -.96
SPRD, $20.43, L 20.00, +.43
JCOM, $29.79, L 31.71, -1.92
AMED, $13.29, L 16.50, -3.21
MERC, $7.58, Avg 8.50, -.92
TQNT, $5.17, L 6.30, -1.13
========================
Total + 10.72
That is how Hedge Funds win regardless of market direction. This is a very rough system too, since it is not on the efficient frontier. Even if you say that most of the profit comes from AMZN which is a high priced stock, true, but the point is that in terrible markets long/short tends to outperform just long - one tends to lose less on down markets, and still win on up markets, with reduced risk.
You still need decent timing, and good choices.