Stock mkt sure isn’t scared of a Nuke war . Down 12% is a small pullback

[SunTrader]

I would say -90percent within 2 days.

first day -30percent as a gap move and that will spur margin calls up the wazoo and continued forced selling.

It would be so catastrophic the government (if it still exists) would have to backstop all investors and markets would rally back to -20percent on that.

Guess I should have elaborated further on my thoughts.

Markets wouldn't exist because we wouldn't. IM(limited knowledge)O there is no such thing as a limited nuclear war .... anymore.

When U.S. dropped the hydrogen bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945 we were the only ones who had them, at the time. That obviously is no longer the case.

If anyone uses them presently or in the future, all will likely use them. "Everyone gets a piece" we used to say, although in reference to something completely different.

 

[SunTrader]

How would the Circuit breakers (-20% Limit down trading halt for rest of day) effect that?

It would take 10 day to lose 90% if the markets go limit down -20% every day.

Right.

They would just turn the markets off i think, like the Russians have.

Frozen in time.

 

[SammyJ]

Unfortunately there’s no way out for Putin but to destroy all . If he cease fires now and withdraws Russia will be sanctioned forever and they’ll come after him for war crimes . I’m convinced he’s going all the way unless he’s assassinated.

 

[ET180]

Unfortunately there’s no way out for Putin but to destroy all . If he cease fires now and withdraws Russia will be sanctioned forever and they’ll come after him for war crimes . I’m convinced he’s going all the way unless he’s assassinated.

I fear that you might be right about that. I think it comes down to China. Will China support Russia? If Russia doesn't have support from China, I think they will eventually seek a way out via peace talks which will be offered to them. Longer-term, there's a way for Russia to get out of the sanctions, just not with Putin in power.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...raine-biden-admin-says-sunday-afternoon-media

 

[S2007S]

How would the Circuit breakers (-20% Limit down trading halt for rest of day) effect that?

It would take 10 days to lose 90% if the markets go limit down -20% every day.

They would just turn the markets off i think, like the Russians have.

Markets would be shut down for at least a few days and depending on where the wars are and how bad it is, they could be shut down for weeks. Keep in mind that if this were to happen the world economy would be at a comple standstill and GDP in nearly every country looking out a few months dropping double digits.

 

[S2007S]

Right.

Frozen in time.
View attachment 280196

Could be the s&p in due time.

Imagine....

Wonder what the federal reserve and powell would do. What kind of idea would they have in place to at least stabilize the markets

Maybe no short term capital gains tax
More Unlimited QE
Negative rates
Maybe they just spend trillions buying stocks direct..

 

[RedSun]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/west-save-putin-russia-ukraine/627051/

A great statement does not make a rash decision like the hot headed, or headless Boris Johnson. He often says things that he can't back up. The same with Scott Morrison. They are the mirrored brothers.

 

[SunTrader]

Could be the s&p in due time.

Imagine....

Wonder what the federal reserve and powell would do. What kind of idea would they have in place to at least stabilize the markets

Maybe no short term capital gains tax
More Unlimited QE
Negative rates
Maybe they just spend trillions buying stocks direct..

Only have to look to history of WW2 and 9-11 when NYSE was closed for 4 months and 1 week respectively.

 

[RedSun]

People must remember that a cornered bear is far more dangerous than a bear in navy blue suit and a tie.

Do not get the wishful thinking that Putin will surrender. Or Putin will be taken out by CIA etc.

Ukraine knows so well that the West will continue to prop it up. It wants to exhaust both the West and Russia. It is just like that in WW I. But this time, Americans are not coming to the rescue.

To the end, it has to be some negotiated solution. Ukraine realizes and Biden realizes it too. There has to be some end to the war.