Stock Market Up Move for December 2019

  • Thread starter Thread starter SPX Blaster
  • Start date Start date
SPX Blaster said:
Yes, that's me. On other forums I have used the handle 4xis2ez.

Here is the link to free download of historical data. I think you have to sign up or login with Facebook or something like that.

https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/
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That's you? No kidding?!

So you've been using these solves for the 7 yrs or so??
Damn...you've rekindled my interest in DP!

As mentioned earlier, I was a practitioner, back in the day. Even did my own ultra-short term solves. Ultimately moved on. Still use some astro tho. And I always seem to know the day-color of the previous and upcoming full moon!
 
ph1l said:
bayesian_analysis_of_lunar_effects_on_stock_returns_liu.pdf has

which refers to lunar_cycle_effects_in_stock_returns_dichev.pdf attached in my previous post and also
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However, if you look at the table, the returns for the US indices are the same for new moon and full moon. I also think Renaissance capital looked at it before and said they found nothing.
 
SPX Blaster said:
Look at it this way. Using number decimals to determine the mathematical number of 1/3, where does it end? It doesn't, it goes on to infinity. 1/3 cannot be determined "exactly" numerically.
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It can be determined exactly, numerically, in base 3 math. And in base 3 math, 1/2 can never be determined, it would go on to infinity. I think you are reaching here.
 
SPX Blaster said:
I'm guessing you're talking about the cycle analysis. I use these to increase probality of success. The cycles are not absolutes, but deal with probabilities. Have you read the whole thread or just the first post? Feel free to follow this thread and see how it goes
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Hello, respectfully, I completely understand that they are not absolutes and that you use them to deal with probabilities. It is still fallacious. I can explain but I saw other posts that you think I’m a troll and have subsequently blocked and ignored me. If not, I can continue. Please advise.

SPX Blaster said:
Yes, I would like to know why you feel my cycle analysis is wrong, misleading, based on a mistaken belief.

Many years ago, people were taught that the earth is the center of the universe. Later, it was discovered that this belief was not correct. Hence, beliefs or facts discovered later, like the earth not being the center of the universe, changed what was earlier not understood. If you feel the market is random, is there a possibility that that understanding could change due to the discovery of market timing cycles?
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I saw this post then saw another one afterwards that you ignored and blocked me. I’d like to know before I write to you why I believe what you’re claiming is fallacious, in other words, based on a mistaken belief.

When I said fallacious, its in the context that you’re argument has premises that are based on mistaken beliefs that I would like to highlight and point out to you.

Am I on ignore or blocked? I simply made a claim, like you made a claim, and I am willing to explain why. again, I know it’s not certain but supposed to enhance your probabilities, with this being said, it is still fallacious.

Edit: You’re fragile and stand weak with your beliefs. You should reconsider such a stance if you want to gain intelligence.
 
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Just to make sure everyone knows, I'm not going to tell you how to trade. But the first half of this week, I look to go long gbpcad, exit maybe mid week or earlier, and the second half of this week, I look to short eurusd to the end of the week.
 
tiddlywinks said:
That's you? No kidding?!

So you've been using these solves for the 7 yrs or so??
Damn...you've rekindled my interest in DP!

As mentioned earlier, I was a practitioner, back in the day. Even did my own ultra-short term solves. Ultimately moved on. Still use some astro tho. And I always seem to know the day-color of the previous and upcoming full moon!
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To be very honest here. I'm not a really good trader despite having knowledge of these cycles. I have psychological difficulties trading such as fear of loss along with not making a very good income during my working career due to health problems, I've always been under funded, and end up over leveraging and messing up in that manner. I am currently trying to qualify for an FTMO funded account trading other peoples money. I passed the first test of 10% gain in 16 days, and am currently in the second round of test where the goal is a 5% gain in 60 days or less.

I also am waiting for funding to clear in a live account where I can trade stock index, forex and others using real money.
 
noddyboy said:
However, if you look at the table, the returns for the US indices are the same for new moon and full moon. I also think Renaissance capital looked at it before and said they found nothing.
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I'm not an expert on statistics, but bayesian_analysis_of_lunar_effects_on_stock_returns_liu.pdf has
upload_2019-10-6_18-2-56.png

and 0.003 for the full moon is different than 0.009 for the new moon.
 
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