I sure wish a market pundent would say this, Like Abby or Joe Battapaglia.
Geez up up up up up every day, when will it end!
Geez up up up up up every day, when will it end!
Quote from myminitrading:
I sure wish a market pundent would say this, Like Abby or Joe Battapaglia.
Geez up up up up up every day, when will it end!
Itââ¬â¢s hard to keep this market down. The Dow industrials have gained in 18 of the past 20 sessions, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq arenââ¬â¢t too shabby, either. This, despite worries about inflation, lagging economic growth, the weakness in the dollar and fallout from the subprime mortgage/housing mess.
Instead of searching for an end (and admittedly, one will come), some are turning their sights to the stratosphere. ââ¬ÅWe continue to believe that the most likely scenario for the market this year is the ââ¬Ëmelt-upââ¬â¢ ââ¬â a feedback loop of buying that results in much higher than anticipated stock prices and the potential for an accident sometime down the road,ââ¬Â wrote Jason Trennert of Strategas Research, in a recent commentary.
Itââ¬â¢s time for Five Reasons, focusing on why the stock marketââ¬â¢s ascendance isnââ¬â¢t over just yet.
* Momentum: Sometimes, the trend really is your friend. The Dow is up in 18 of the past 20 days. The default setting for investors is, ââ¬Åbuy more, and then buy some more,ââ¬Â even at times when it seems bad news should knock the market off course. Bianco Research analysts noted that a 9% drop in Chinaââ¬â¢s market, news of troubles in subprime mortgage lending, and a decline in the yen-carry trade ââ¬â which had supported equities altogether ââ¬â only resulted in a 6% decline in stocks. ââ¬ÅIt took three end-of-the-world stories at the same time to get a 6% decline,ââ¬Â they write. ââ¬ÅIn previous cycles, a decline of 6% was too small to call a correction.ââ¬Â
* Money to spend: Assets in the nationââ¬â¢s mutual funds rose to $10.77 trillion in March, and U.S. equity funds are starting to see more consistent flows, with $20 billion in inflows in the first three months of the year, according to the ICI. Thatââ¬â¢s more than all of last year. Hedge funds continue to see strong inflows, with more than $1.1 trillion in assets now, according to Lipper, as do ETFs. ââ¬ÅThereââ¬â¢s a ton of liquidity,ââ¬Â says Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Capital Partners.
* Supply: Sure, the liquidity is there, but what about supply? Itââ¬â¢s being reduced, which means investors have less to fight over, and that causes prices to go up. Marc Pado of Cantor Fitzgerald notes that venture capitalists are ââ¬Åprojected to take out $640 billion of public shares in 2007.ââ¬Â In addition, companies are buying back their own stock ââ¬â which will cause a trillion dollars in stock to leave the publicââ¬â¢s hands, he estimates. The reduction in float means more investors are competing to buy a smaller amount of publicly available stock. ââ¬ÅIf you put all of the LBO money together, you could take out a significant portion of market cap of the S&P 500,ââ¬Â says Steve Neimeth, portfolio manager at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management.
* Earnings: Analyst expectations were ratcheted down for several weeks before bottoming out recently. As of April 1, expectations were for earnings growth in the S&P 500 of 3.7%, but the successive reports of companies beating these forecasts has been ââ¬Åenough of a confidence booster for investors to return to the stock market,ââ¬Â noted Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. He says many are concluding the economy may be improving, ââ¬Åbased on the earnings releases to date and the tone of company guidanceââ¬Â¦ .ââ¬Â Earnings growth is likely to still come in between 6% and 7% year-over-year, which would break a string of 14 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Since nobody expected this, though, itââ¬â¢s being hailed as a positive.
* Valuation: By many standards, stocks are viewed as being cheap. The current price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 stands at 17, lowest since 1995. Mr. Neimeth says if the market isnââ¬â¢t a value at this level, ââ¬Åyouââ¬â¢re never going to buy stocks.ââ¬Â