Stock Index Futures Statistics

[Aaron Copland]

Quote from black diamond:

Check out this paper on the subject. These guys find positive average overnight returns of around 5 bps for the es ( about 3/4 of an es point), and that most of the return to stocks has come overnight in the last decade.

Probably to small to trade on as a standalone strategy but interesting.

Very interesting indeed, seems like a nifty tool these index futures. They are usually up overnight.

 

[Aaron Copland]

US index futures up 65% of the time overnight. They are up 84% of the time after a hard down day like yesterday.

ES now up 10.00 points on 62k contracts @8:20am EST now thats pretty amazing.

Traders you are missing out on the easiest profits my not buying long at the cash close. Its money in the bank plain and simple.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Aaron Copland:

US index futures up 65% of the time overnight.

In your first post it was 78%. If you keep posting, in a month or so you will reach the correct ratio of 50%...

 

[Aaron Copland]

Buy US index futures after cash close today Friday Dec 28th. Buying ES March futures contract now @ 1487.00

Futures are up in the overnight session.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Aaron Copland:

Very interesting indeed, seems like a nifty tool these index futures. They are usually up overnight.

Yes, simplistic approaches usually lead to a nifty reduction in the accounts of newbies who think they are very interesting...

 

[jficquette]

There is a strategy outlined in a book I bought years ago by Linda Raschy(sp).

If the 2 period rate of change is above zero on the daily you buy the close and sell the next day.

If it is below zero then you sell at the close.

She may have suggested that the 2 period ROC be on the other side of the zero line the day before. I don't remember.

I believe it could be a decent way to do things if you were to coordinate with reports due out the next morning. If no reports are due then its a crap shoot. If there is major report due and it appears there is buying before it comes out then it would probably have better odds.

The ES has gotten to where it trades decent volume at night so there are really no gaps anymore.

John