Stochastics

SusanaDT, yes agreed - that goes without saying, but it doesn't answer the question. What I mean is, compare like with like because good indicator traders use multiple timeframes.

Going to a bigger timeframe is not always the answer - you get the same problems there but in a bigger timeframe. So I want to compare techniques directly, like for like.

T/L gives no indication of the strength of an immediate break. Let's take a short from a T/L break, you could get a return to the trendline at a higher price - say in my eg the retest of the high. Did the trendline break tell you this is not the major trade? No, because PA went higher. So how much "Feel" for the direction did the T/L break give you? What if it reteste the T/L and prior high and break up?

You'd have taken the short and depending on the amplitude of the return, got stopped out. How do you qualify PA when it is moving within the next up timeframe you use, so it has not signalled there yet?

Give me a like for like comparison, because indicator traders use T/L's and multiple timeframes too.
 
Yoohoo,

Well, to put it bluntly, I've never been afraid of a small loss, I'm sure you get them too.

As I said before I would need to see the bigger picture before commenting on the play.

Susana
 
Quote from trackstar:

Lets do the analysis:

Post PnL(2 results):

A. Above what is expected:
1. You get more of a following
2. People know you are successful


B. Below what is expected:
1. You get lots of shit
2. No one follows your system

Now, are there any drawbacks to A? I doubt it, if anything you get to sell more of whatever you sell.

To B? Yes, no one will listen to a thing you have to say or buy whatever you are selling.

I have nothing against you. In fact I have some respect for you since you can take boat loads of shit and still be around. But I am sick seeing pages upon pages of the forum criticizing you and others backing you. Clear it all up once and for all. Put the dummies to shame or throw the system away.
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I am an amateur. This is different from being a part of the financial industry.

Thus, I have turned down doing business for about 50 years out of 52 years of trading. Not having people ask me to do business is a goal.

I am in total agreement with you for people who are trying to make a business out of trading.

In the post following yours is a list of things for me to consider. they have been considered by myself alone and with others. and the consequence of their consideration is the manually oriented journals that have run for the last few years. There is more than manual trading and trading as an amateur.
 
Quote from yoohoo:

Jack, I agree that channels are very powerful trading tools, and the ES is the best for channels I have come across. The Euro is good, also the YM, the Russel is poor, NQ I have not used channels on.

However I use channels in a very different way. Mathematically they are perfect and there's no guesswork. The ES scores big time here because the channels are exact. But I don't use teeny weeny channels... because there is so much noise and violations and reconstructs.

If you have a method that can beat the noise, either don't tell or show all. And by show all I mean one single A4 page should be sufficient to explain "Buy Here" with "This Signal" and "Reverse Here" on the opposite set up.

I don't think you can do that, because you have too much to say. I have no idea if it works. You need someone you have trained to write out your rules on one page and then give plenty of chart examples.

I have made it clear I'm not going to show what I do and I have given the reasons why. You are making utterly extreme claims and offering to show how, but the results are bewilderment.

If you want to help others then take note that you are having the opposite effect. The solution is simple: get a ghostwriter who can give a very concise, well set out rule based methodology.

Regarding the example you posted of someone elses system, this is a bad example to use for channelling. The coloured horizontal bars give no warning of an impending cross and so have no value whatsoever for a Channeling System. In fact it would probably make a profit doing the opposite of what it says.

An example is only relevant if it pertains to your method, otherwise it adds to the confusion and bewilderment and frustration traders experience attempting to decypher your methods.

I know channels work - channel breakouts used to be the method employed in institutional automated systems - but not as you construct them. I'm all on for taking something that works on a bigger timeframe and scaling it down to see at what point it breaks down and if there's an edge. But it has to be clean and clear.

The beauty of true channels is the clear, visable, repeatable mathematical relationships. No guesswork and perfect for automation.

I refuse to get into Jack-bashing, or anyone else for that matter. But Jack, even if you won't do it for your own credibility, do it for those you claim to want to help. There are a lot of hurting traders who have tried in vain to make your method work, and it seems obvious that the cause is either too many words and unclear rules, or an unprofitable method.

Cut this thing down to one page of rules and lots of examples. Don't use other peoples systems as examples, please.
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Very very nice post.

The mathematics of channels is precise. There is nothing lost in terms of precision when using a family of concurrent channels.

Wathematically using time and price to define channels creates parallelograms. They overlap fortunately and mathematically the optimum trade is the long diagonal of the parallelogram.

Very fortunately, the long diagonal's end points form a continuous path over time. when faster fractals are c9onsidered, they nest in slower fractals and the slower fractal long diagonal becomes the carrier for the faster fractal. trading on three levels is the most useful pragmatically speaking.

Channel BO trading happens after the long diagonal has come to an end and the next long diagonal has begun. As you say this is a "herd" tradition and as a parasitic trader I am front running the herd and the herd is pushing my positions.

This makes for a timing offset. It is very simple to refine trading the long diagonal to have advance notice of the optimum moment before the smart money escapes before the herd. see next inquiring post that you make.

Again thank you for your comment above.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Actually there's one almost pure PA trader around here who doesn't use multiples ... but I don't think anekedoten posts on these boards anymore.
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MandelbrotSet,

Actually he does, he calls it the Anchor chart and also uses the Daily to support areas when the Anchor is entering what he calls no mans land.

I read his journal from beginning to the very end. Beautiful work.

Susana
 
Jack, I think I understand what you are saying, but only because I have a working frame of reference that has a lot of similarities.

I use extensions of proven channels, but I do very little by way of adjustment.

The point I am trying to make is, I think I can understnad what you are saying, but if you get it down to clear rules, few words and lots of visual examples, then what works will be plain to all to see.

Unless someone is an experienced channel trader in small timeframes, they would think you are from Mars.
 
Quote from yoohoo:

Ok, ST and others asked what indicators can do that PA alone can't. I gave a lengthy reply in order to give a frame of reference and then a synopsis.

But I am waiting for a reply to my question from PA traders. Lets say we had a top, a good pullback and now it looks like PA is going for a test of the highs again.

It's a quality move, the swing up and the swing down clear and good to trade using PA alone.

However, close to the retest of the highs but not close enough for a proper retest PA gives a clear sell signal. Here are my questions...

1. Do you take the reversal, or expect it is noise and the future test of the high is the signal to take.

2. Wherever you take the sell signal - how would you know in advance if this is going to be a major reversal or a minor pullback and move to new highs.

3. If you reversed and it gets choppy, what would make you hold the trade if it signalled get out?

One thing I may not have made clear in my explanation on What Indicators show that PA doesn't, is the power to show a reversal bar is going to follow. In other words, I am selling very close to the top of a green bar - way before PA has given any kind of reversal signal on a red bar and way before a bar takeout, lower close etc.

Here's an example of a volume Flag - the candle is green but the volume is actually the smart money bailing out. On PA is looks strong, but baby, I'm short way way before the PA signal. This is pure Livermore/Wyckoff - retest of the high and baleout-reversal by smartmoney. It's an absolute screamer that PA alone can't see.
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The 1, 2, and 3 is to use a leading indicator of what you describe. This is best done by comparing smart money and others from a timing point of view. The advance warning does provide time for 3 to 4 partial fills of a 5 partial fill trading level that is many times the capacity of the market.

Corrections have to be made for the drift of premium and especially after the drift has exceeded 4 units in the DJIA.

The ordinary noise level is +/- 2 units. A level of 4.8 units is required the have a statistically significant leading signal. When the premium is low during it threemonth convergence, then you have to automatically handle the flipping of values from positive to negative.

A 300 tics time of accumulation is way out of range for having any degree of sensitivity for this leading indication. Seconds or 100millisecond rep rates are the coarsest you will want to be using.

For whatever volatility of the comprison of the premium to cash (the herd), there is a precursor to the signals mentioned above. how fortunate. Apply a normalized (neutrally biased) volatility compression test. The test failure is the precursor signal. An easy one to convert is the Connors-Hayward.

1. take the signal I recommend

2. this is off the table, finally.

3. a repeat of the test I mentioned will have been done many times and this always keeps you on the right side of a trade.

Trading is a precise mathematically based effort. There are no descretionary things like those that you raise in your Q's.

Smart money operates like dominos some is smarter than others. Here you see the first glimmer of smart money as a failure of a test. this appraoch has long been advocated by Quals. This is not a Quant thing.
 
Quote from SusanaDT:

MandelbrotSet,

Actually he does, he calls it the Anchor chart and also uses the Daily to support areas when the Anchor is entering what he calls no mans land.

I read his journal from beginning to the very end. Beautiful work.

Susana
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Thanks for the reference, I will look it up :)
 
Quote from SusanaDT:

MandelbrotSet,

Actually he does, he calls it the Anchor chart and also uses the Daily to support areas when the Anchor is entering what he calls no mans land.

I read his journal from beginning to the very end. Beautiful work.

Susana
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Good stuff, I can see you're serious.
 
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