Stochastics and price action

Quote from jficquette:

They only work on swings when the market is not trending hard. Take only sto trades where it has done a full cycle. I.E. if you are buying oversold make sure the last trade was selling overbought and the sto was overbought. This indicates a meandering market.

If you are buying oversold but on the last swing the sto never got overbought then it is generally a continutation.

Best way to use to Sto's in trending markets supported by news is to use them to get in with the trend on a pullback. So if market is up big let the sto get over sold and then use a trendline to get back in with the market.


John

Good point John

I notice that the best signals I got were after 10:00 AM news I waited for the dust to settle and take the other side.

I pull the charts only to see market opening time frame from 9:30 to 4:16 As you mentioned about cycles, will be advisable to see what the price has been doing pre-market to be aware of those cycles?
 
Quote from feb2865:

Good point John

I notice that the best signals I got were after 10:00 AM news I waited for the dust to settle and take the other side.

I pull the charts only to see market opening time frame from 9:30 to 4:16 As you mentioned about cycles, will be advisable to see what the price has been doing pre-market to be aware of those cycles?

It does seem to be a civilized thread does'nt it.
It must be killing some of us.

Oddly enough, IMO, the opening of the morning session is pretty much pure momentum most days and this is where stoch comes into it's own.
I must confess that most days I bang off two quick contrarian trades on the ES for a tick target only.
Nothing clever in the way of trade size as it is a dangerous time of day, because of speed. But it makes me feel good and opens my mind to the market for the morning which is all I trade.
 
if you want to backtest more months get a free trial of sierra-charts and download historical data from opentick.com for free and you can test all you want for fourteen days ...
 
it's still not too clear to me where you get out (target/stop). Could you post a chart, like they say: a picture tells a thousand words.
 
Quote from feb2865:

Good point John

I notice that the best signals I got were after 10:00 AM news I waited for the dust to settle and take the other side.

I pull the charts only to see market opening time frame from 9:30 to 4:16 As you mentioned about cycles, will be advisable to see what the price has been doing pre-market to be aware of those cycles?

Best sto trades are on days where there is no news. Use the 24 hour data with tick or volume bars. Not really important which or what setting. A lot of times on newsless days there will be a trade around 9.45 or so and another around 10.15.

let the stoc show the cycle. Let it run smoothly up and down. Market has to ebb and flow without news.

John
 
Quote from cvds16:

it's still not too clear to me where you get out (target/stop). Could you post a chart, like they say: a picture tells a thousand words.

sure

here it is

I am using 1:1 risk reward on YM

20/20

20 - stop-loss
20 profit target

remember I am not an expert This is just a test.
 

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I've tried plain stochastics with little success. I've found StochRSI to work much better, especially in the morning when the trends are clean.

Does anybody use StockRSI? The only thing I wish I had was another good indicator I can compare it against to tell me if a stock is going to remain overbot/oversold.

lux
 
Quote from luxor:

I've tried plain stochastics with little success. I've found StochRSI to work much better, especially in the morning when the trends are clean.

Does anybody use StockRSI? The only thing I wish I had was another good indicator I can compare it against to tell me if a stock is going to remain overbot/oversold.

lux

Hello luxor,

RSI is a price derivative and the stoch is a derivative of the RSI when used as a stochRSI. You are getting a long way back from the coalface.

To be frank, it is probably more in the manner that they are applied. You can only extract so much highlight from either stoch or stochRSI, or from any indicator for that matter.

One thought might be to skew the 100/0 scale in line with trend.

ie If the price is bouncing within it's channel without new highs or lows then the midpoint of 50 is probably OK.
If the trend is up, then you may consider a midpoint of say 60 or more.
Depending upon your software, you could write some simple code and see how it all fairs out.
 
Quote from alex.samant:

The only 2 problems with stochastics (and those made me replace it with a MACDHistogram as an oscillator) are:

1) It's subjective in what concerns the time window, as it measures the close vs the range of that time window, and with all the smoothing applied to it, it still issues false signals, and when price action is choppy, you are in for a rough ride.

You would even have the surprise of getting different signals using two consecutive time-windows, say a 9 and a 10 or 11.

2)It is normalized and does not have a clear quantitative measure of momentum therefore making the rules of buying when it is oversold and selling when it is overbought useless and most of the time, even combined with a higher timeframe notion of trend it will have you selling into a new uptrend and buying into a new downtrend.

Plus, it's too sensitive and it is measured using the closes. When you use it intraday, what difference does the close on a 10 minute bar make?

Therefore, as an oscillator i would recommend using a MACD Histogram calculated using the H+L+C/3 formula instead of the Close price and considering the following rules:

When MACD Histogram is above 0 it's overbought and when it's below 0 it's oversold. NOTE: This can ONLY be used considering a higher timeframe trend.

Very astute observations.

Stochastics loses some of its magic when you realize it is merely measuring where the close of the last bar is compared to the range of the lookback period. It was originally derived by George Lane and some researchers doing hand calculations on grain prices. http://www.lanestochastics.com/ They noticed that when markets closed at extreme highs or lows, they often were O/B or O/S, as the price action represented weak holders getting shaken out at the close. Unless that is, the market was trending, in which case the signal would be false. That lead to the concept of divergence, which is still the most powerful signal in technical analysis. At its most basic, a divergence indicates that the prevailing trend is losing steam, as price is unable to close at an extreme.
 
Quote from cvds16:

if you want to backtest more months get a free trial of sierra-charts and download historical data from opentick.com for free and you can test all you want for fourteen days ...

got it Thanks for the tip

Sierra charts are good for the money in my opinion

I'll do the backtesting just for curiosity but I believe is all in your ability and interpretation and knowing what an indicator does and it's limitations what's important
 
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