Stochastics and price action

Quote from rcanfiel:

I don't just trade hypothetically. The website was not touted as it was clear and explained that subscribers were never allowed, and I said supp/res had value but are really not used in my trading. Magna called me out on nothing, as I said in multiple ways that there was no attempts to sell anything, including in PMs to Magna. Other than that, you are pretty close.


The thing that speaks for itself is the fact that TA is always discussed by its believers, but never proved. Freecharts.com (barchart.com freebie site) unintentionally does a very good job of shredding TA. Using 1-2 years of real data, these are the real-world results of 3 main stock indexes. Note they all negative to strongly negative. Looking at all the other commodities on the site show similar results if followed over time:

Nasdaq
http://freecharts.com/Commodities.aspx?page=perform&sym=NDY0
S&P 500
http://freecharts.com/Commodities.aspx?page=perform&sym=SPY0
Dow Jones
http://freecharts.com/Commodities.aspx?page=perform&sym=DJY0

This contains 13 popular indicators, having diff lengths of MACD, Bollinger Bands, ADI, CCI, MAs, Trend Spotter, Parabolics

rcanfiel,

Although your conversation and my too is completely off topic...

Your intentionally being disruptive to the thread starter request not to be disruptive and your intentionally bending the facts.

First of all, if your fee-base website was not taking subscribers...

Why didn't you remove the fee-based payment links?

I just looked at the time of this message reply to you and your charging anywhere between $125 - $4500 depending upon the length of the service.

Further, you stated at your own website that you've researched over 1500 different trading systems and only 1% had a real edge.

By the way, the website link I got the above info from is the exact same website link you posted in your journal thread.

It's the same website link that Magna removed and warned you about along with warning you about Collective2 (notice how I didn't mention your website link).

Simply, if you are true to your word that no attempts is to sell...

Remove the payment links.

Another fact, you have not proved that TA doesn't work.

Another fact, some at ET have proved that TA does work via either posting their P/L statements or stating the specific criteria for testing.

Another fact that's misleading by you...the link you posted in this thread involving Freecharts.com do not represent the popular TA methods as you stated.

My point...you keep pointing a finger at indicators while at the same time making generalistic statments as if ALL TA doesn't work.

However, I will agree with you about one thing...I haven't met a profitable trader that's consistently profitable via the stuff posted at Freecharts.com

Just as important, I have met profitable traders using s/r levels, custom Japanese Candlestick patterns, volatility analysis, custom chart patterns (double tops/bottoms, head & shoulders, triangles), divergence, breakout patterns, fading breakout patterns et cetera...

All the above I listed are TA and very popular while not even listed among the stuff at Freecharts.com

I will go further to say that the above TA stuff I mentioned is much more popular, arguably, than the stuff posted at Freecharts.com

Another fact, you specifically stated that supply/resistance and trendlines has value in another thread here at ET.

Both are TA and the issue is not if you use them are not.

The issue is that your running around ET stating TA doesn't have any value what so ever and we can review your recent posts if you denied saying such.

Yet, prior to those statements, you stated s/r levels and trendlines had value.

Thus, your lost or confused about what is TA and what is not TA.

It's a contradiction as simple as that.

I myself use TA although its not the only thing I use.

Yet, I don't use and never have used any of that stuff at Freecharts.com mainly because I'm a price action only trader (no indicators) that uses technical analysis.

Summary:

* You have a fee-based website, you posted the link in your journal to it and Magna removed it along with giving you a warning about posting that link.

The above info (your fees) I posted about your website I got when I first clicked on the link in your journal here at ET...the same link that Magna removed at a later date.

* There are traders at ET posting their P/L statements and consistently are profitable.

Guess what...they use TA and I strongly suspect they aren't using the TA at Freecharts.com :p

* The TA at Freecharts.com do not represent the popular TA :eek:

Heck, they don't even list one s/r level method out of hundreds of different types of strategies involving s/r levels.

* Freecharts doesn't even list price action only TA used by floor traders or institutional traders.

* Freecharts.com results represents their own personal interpretation of particular methods.

* It's a contradiction for you to say s/r levels and trendlines has value while TA does not have any value.

I'm just setting the facts accurate after you intentionally was misleading.

Last of all, I apologize to the thread started for the above off-topic comments.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Quote from HoustonMark:

Indicator/price divergence is not the grail....but it is definitely a tool worth paying attention to....either as confirmation to enter a trade or if you are in a trade and wondering if the trend will continue or not....divergence can provide very useful clues in both situations if you are able to recognize them...

I see no relationship between divergence and fibs/pivots....fibs and pivots are calculated levels....divergence is not.....

It is a difficult concept for new traders to grasp, so most ignore it....you can almost hear the refrain "this seems hard so I probably don't need it"....

To over-simplify it, if you see price heading in one direction and your favorite indicator headed in the opposite direction, it is well worth your time to notice it and understand the potential outcome....whether you take action or not.....

If you're including indicators in your "divergences", then your divergences are calculated at least in part. Therefore, the relationship is there. This is not especially difficult, nor "hard". But it is largely imaginary if indicators are used.

LC
 
Quote from Lamont_C:

If you're including indicators in your "divergences", then your divergences are calculated at least in part. Therefore, the relationship is there. This is not especially difficult, nor "hard". But it is largely imaginary if indicators are used.

LC

Well, I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer so I am happy it isn't "hard".....

Help me out here....you stated earlier the "pro's" fleece amateurs by creating divergence between indicators and price.....

When price is making a higher high and my stochastic is making a lower high, how exactly did the pro's "create" that relationship to fool me into going short?.....
 
Quote from HoustonMark:

Well, I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer so I am happy it isn't "hard".....

Help me out here....you stated earlier the "pro's" fleece amateurs by creating divergence between indicators and price.....

When price is making a higher high and my stochastic is making a lower high, how exactly did the pro's "create" that relationship to fool me into going short?.....

I didn't say they fleece them by creating divergences between indicators and price; they fleece them by encouraging them to believe that "indicators" have some sort of value. Whatever "value" indicators may have, however, lies only in the mind of the beginner. In the real world of trading, they are at best a red herring, and will indicate whatever the beginner wants them to indicate according to whatever settings he chooses.

LC
 
Buy1Sell2: A hidden divergence is exaclty TREND. I didn't know it was called a hidden divergence, but when i see MACD Histogram rating swings and telling me they are getting more powerful (eventually we get a record momentum high) i trade in the direction of that trend. So, even if i didn't know someone calls it hidden divergence, i still trade it as a continuation of the trend. But only when we have an actual trend...
So thanks for stepping in :)

Lamont: It's true that a real divergence occurs between price and the level of activity, but don't you feel that the moving average spread getting thinner indicates just that?
 
Since stochastic is random and MACD is lagging. If you combine both in one page and see you will find it the discrepancies gap of both can be narrow/improve better...try it you will see
 
Quote from alex.samant:

Buy1Sell2: A hidden divergence is exaclty TREND. I didn't know it was called a hidden divergence, but when i see MACD Histogram rating swings and telling me they are getting more powerful (eventually we get a record momentum high) i trade in the direction of that trend. So, even if i didn't know someone calls it hidden divergence, i still trade it as a continuation of the trend. But only when we have an actual trend...
So thanks for stepping in :)

Lamont: It's true that a real divergence occurs between price and the level of activity, but don't you feel that the moving average spread getting thinner indicates just that?

Alex,

Hidden/reverse divergence has nothing to do with how powerful the MACD histogram swings are.

You need to compare the indicator to price to spot divergence.

Check out the link I posted at the top of page 9. It will tell you the relationship that must exist between price and the indicator for reverse or hidden divergence to be present. It is well-defined and not subjective.

It does indicate probable trend continuation and learning exactly what it is and how to spot it is well worth your time.
 
Quote from Lamont_C:

I didn't say they fleece them by creating divergences between indicators and price; they fleece them by encouraging them to believe that "indicators" have some sort of value. Whatever "value" indicators may have, however, lies only in the mind of the beginner. In the real world of trading, they are at best a red herring, and will indicate whatever the beginner wants them to indicate according to whatever settings he chooses.

LC

I agree that indicators and textbook descriptions of how to use them fleece new traders.

I don't include divergence in the above statement. It is the only way I know of to use indicators and obtain nearly real time indications of when to go long, when to go short, and when to expect continuation.
 
Guys

don't want to spoil the party as this thread has been one of the most interesting and ordinated I have seen on ET but please stick to the subject.

Thanks
 
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