Steve46 and Hypostomus Debate Trading Strategy

I like the NQ as well. A bit more sane than the ER2 for my preferences (I trade all the index futs, today I just happened to focus on the NQ).

Today got me into on trade with one NQ setup. The 1576-1572 is a "no-mans land" IMO, a value are exists here that when broken up or down produces a signal for me. So I entered short on the 11:50 candle breaching 1572. I took profits on the 12:50 candle break of the consolidation zone from 12:25 to 12:40 netting me a tiny 1.5 points:). Nothing special - I prefer to trade directional days or FED days when it comes to the futs. That is in essence my strategy, nothing complicated or fancy, its simple, stupid and it makes money. My "edge" exists in my ability to execute loss cutting discipline, not necessarily in the trade quality.

FWIW, I focused most of my energy on stocks today, the rebound in TSO was quite attractive:)
 

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I will try to post a link when time permits.

Because of the structure of the market and my characterization of the players, I don't see an edge (that I can take adapt to my use) in tick charts. I believe that players who trade on the micro scale are not the market movers, but instead it is the more general population of intraday traders who are probably looking at 5 minute charts. In my view they provide what I call "follow-on" momentum to a move.

As a concession to the micro, I can read the tape looking for buyers or sellers. If I see them on the bid or offer, and I am able to identify them, I am likely to stay on their side as long as they remain in play. Also since automated bid/offers exist I look for timed entries. Once I indentify a timed entry I am likely to "work them" until they leave the field.

Steve
 
Thanks for sharing, Mike. My best of the day was a long from 10 to 10:30 ET. Can you say how you determine a "no-man's land"? I like NQ because IT likes round numbers and Seiki Shimizu's "ruel of ten" on a one-minute chart.
 
Quote from steve46:

...I monitor price on 4 charts, using 15, 5, 3 & 1 min candles

I also use a modified linear regression system so that I can obtain approximate odds of price moving in a direction. I monitor the difference between advancing and declining volume to confirm my choice on the macro scale, and when in a position I may look at other indications including Tick, Ticki, and Trin. My charts include daily, weekly and monthly pivots. I also use the DDF (which I credit to Dr. John Clayburg and Joshua Lukeman).
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Well, your method certainly seems to involve more variables than mine. Two questions here. First, do you have specific if-then rules? Or do you mix all of the ingredients and then make a judgment call? (I suppose that the latter might fall within the realm of Hypostomus's "tacit" reference.) And second, how many ES trades would you typically make on an average day? Ballpark.

I'm with Hypostomus on the issue of shorter time frames, although I limit my focus exclusively to 1-minute charts. I understand the theory behind following multiple time frames and have tried to do so in the past. However, thus far, I have found that if I follow my method properly on the 1-minute charts, then the longer time frames are superfluous, offering no additional value. Perhaps that is an inherent weakness of my approach. Perhaps not.
 
Steve, I counted 12 things that you watch. Do you put all that on one screen? I ask because periodically we have here "my setup is more complex than yours" contests. My old eyes, slow brain and stiff neck limit me to one screen on a simple (if fast) laptop.
 
Quote from hypostomus:

Thanks for sharing, Mike. My best of the day was a long from 10 to 10:30 ET. Can you say how you determine a "no-man's land"? I like NQ because IT likes round numbers and Seiki Shimizu's "ruel of ten" on a one-minute chart.
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You got it, round numbers, volume correlation and time spent in a particular price area. Are you familiar with Market profile? I use an analysis approach that is roughly similar but mostly homegrown.

Took that 1564 break, BTW, we're off and running:)
 
Quote from hypostomus:

Haha! Gotcha. Do you have a visualization with horizontal volume bars at each price?
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It's horizontal - but its not volume:) Keep guessing...

What do you think 0f 1558?
 
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