Steve46 and Hypostomus Debate Trading Strategy

Before my thread was hijacked by maniacs I was going to delve into the common experience of tacit knowledge that we know but cannot say why we know. And that we must not be deterred by those who object that our knowledge is not explicit. To me that is very relevant to trading. A lot of my better trades occur because of tacit knowledge. In the workplace I handle such situations by saying "Just shut the fuck up and do what I said."
 
Quote from hypostomus:

Before my thread was hijacked by maniacs I was going to delve into the common experience of tacit knowledge that we know but cannot say why we know. And that we must not be deterred by those who object that our knowledge is not explicit. To me that is very relevant to trading. A lot of my better trades occur because of tacit knowledge. In the workplace I handle such situations by saying "Just shut the fuck up and do what I said."
More...

thats what i figured....to bad really it could have been an interesting dialogue. it really is a shame that adults cant act like adults....anyways my regards to you and steve for your replies.


on a side note in my personal experience i feel some of my experience, understandings and successes in life and trading so far have come to me in such a manner as well....i cant always tell you why i know something is right, i cant explain why the solution or understanding of something came to my thinking only that it did and the results from it are real, better than what i knew previouslly and are genuine in their results. i couldn't tell you why or where they evolved from, wouldn't be able to explain or convince another person of their value. you might call such experiences epiphanies? (sorry i'm a terrible speller) i always explained my personal successes as having great instincts but now i wonder what they may be borne of?
 
Quote from steve46:

Okay then, an intelligent comment.

I have to say it is unexpected but appreciated.

First off, it has been quite long time since I read the work. So I may not have all the details at my command.

From my point of view, what the author implies, is that we bring preconceived notions to the forum and then look for data that verifies what we wish to believe. If I am correct, those preconceived notions have by definition to be illogical (I like chocolate, why? don't know, I just do). I can't argue your point really because I don't see any reason why a person couldn't have preconceived notions that have a logical basis as well. I think though that most people deep in their hearts know that it is usually the other way around. Just look at trading. We enter a trade, and (some of us) simply "hope" that we are right. We sit there looking at the screen, waiting, and looking for something to verify what we hope is true (that the market is going to go in our direction). Today for instance, did the market head south because of the Korean missile test, or because some of the big boys decided to use that news item as an excuse to mark it down. If you had a friend on the trading floor, you would have an interesting story to tell about that today..

Steve
More...
mmmhhh... most likely those preconceived notions would have a strong taste of being eminently 'logical' to the person, sthg like 'irrefutable-type' premises, governing principles, long established accepted wisdom-type... adopted 'memes' if you will http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetics

... beliefs that will have become so much part of the person's inner compass system that he/she will essentially have lost awareness that they are there in the background steering most of the person's cognitive and non-cognitive activity...

could range from things such as 'history always repeats itself', 'mean-reversion is the norm', i.e. elementary building blocks if you like, to more complex associations leading to, say, a 'niederhoffer is a hero' super-meme (memeplexe) for instance... and i am not trying to provoke... anything other than 'thought' HERE (i mean that)

by nature of how those 'memes' (for lack of a 'better' concept / word) are acquired / adopted, the person usually has little to no incentive in revisiting them of him/herself... in addition some of these 'memes', on the surface, provide some unquestionable benefits with regard to survival of the species / survival instinct type responses... however taken to an extreme...? i.e. when those same memes figure too prominently (a relative notion of course) on a person's mind, how does that translate into that person's response to a perceived risk?

who knows of course? but just thought of this as an interesting framework, if only to build a useful opportunity/risk map

which would then 'tell' us that when NK in the current tense international context fires missiles simply to attract attention and obtain money, some form of 'recognition' and other 'advantages'... just my opinion of course..., market makers do have reasons to anticipate (and shift their their bid-ask spread / build and manage their inventory accordingly) that most peoples' response will be one of 'great concern'

similarly when BoJ Fukui speaks in Dec 2005, and the yen goes from 121 to 114, and then speaks & says the same thing again in Feb 2006, it is reasonable for the market makers to anticipate that at such a short time interval the mkt response will be similar directionaly but over a much shorter period of time and more moderate in amplitude terms... (119 to 116 roughly)

wonder what will happen if say NK repeats its missile tests in 3 months time, all other things being 'equal'?

just ranting, 'memes' aside...
 
Quote from steve46:

...we bring preconceived notions to the forum and then look for data that verifies what we wish to believe. If I am correct, those preconceived notions have by definition to be illogical...I think though that most people deep in their hearts know that it is usually the other way around...
More...

Like the illogical way you pretend that you and Jack can trade while those who criticise his Boolean ballyhoo can't, because that's what you need to believe? But deep in your heart you know it's the other way around?

The offer's still open... you and Jack vs. me, live on ET... that is, if you and Jack have the balls.
 
ER9. The relevance to anti-Jacking of acting on tacit personal knowledge is this. Jack is explicit inhis screen setups and in the structured way in which he scans ("sweeps") them. My screen setups are explicit, but I prefer that their interprestation be tacit. I deliberately back away and defocus so that the contents of all windows, panes and studies will form an unconscious gestalt. Mike.
 
Quote from porgie:

THIS FORUM IS AS WORTHLESS AS ALL OTHERS.......JUST FOR GRINS........
More...

Usually we don't have to say that in each thread. Anyway, thanks for reminding us once more. :)
 
Quote from hypostomus:

Before my thread was hijacked by maniacs I was going to delve into the common experience of tacit knowledge that we know but cannot say why we know. And that we must not be deterred by those who object that our knowledge is not explicit. To me that is very relevant to trading. A lot of my better trades occur because of tacit knowledge. In the workplace I handle such situations by saying "Just shut the fuck up and do what I said."
More...
Hypo,

Don't dare to say such things in the chit-chat threads. You might be skinned alive for that by maniacal habitues drugged with scientism, junk logic and pop philosophy.
 
Quote from hypostomus:

Before my thread was hijacked by maniacs I was going to delve into the common experience of tacit knowledge that we know but cannot say why we know. And that we must not be deterred by those who object that our knowledge is not explicit. To me that is very relevant to trading. A lot of my better trades occur because of tacit knowledge. In the workplace I handle such situations by saying "Just shut the fuck up and do what I said."
More...


This is the EXACT thinking that keeps Las Vegas alive and the EXACT thinking that keeps losing traders, losing!

It's called self delusion and it's no wonder you folks defend guys like steve46 because you've all been bitten by the same bug!!!!

Listen Carefully !!!!

If you HAVE'NT got a PROVEN definable edge then your NOT a TRADER your just a GAMBLER and there is a small but HUGE difference.

If you honestly do not understand the above statement then you don't have it and STOP trading till you do!!!

Peace and out and I'll leave you all to your resident false guru steve46 :D :D :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top