Staying Long anyone?
- Thread starter Dr.Greenback
- Start date
Im looking to add more money into long positions in my long term buy and hold account but waiting patiently for at least a 5% decline. Adding money into SPY, QQQQ, IWM or even DIA at this point would get me worried. I just cannot see these markets going up another 10%-15% without even the slightest pullback. What would you do if you had some money to go long with, would you buy in now or hold off for a small correction. Remember these markets havent seen a 10% correction in over 4 years.
That's understandable. However, JMHO
I don't think you have too much to worry about. Of course, it depends on where you placed your short positions. Good luckQuote from Dr.Greenback:
That's understandable. However, JMHO
We'll see.
My methodology puts my short sell @ 1454 in the ES as a low risk proposition.
I should have sold premium both long and short in the options as typically after a move like this in the indexes it takes awhile before substantial moves digest to run to the next level. Hence selling premium will net out positive after a week with low risk if hedged with short futures.
But hey what do I know.
That's funny..Yeah, today was a slow day. However, as each day passes the floor raises just a little. There's still a bearish tone IMO to this market if for no other reason than profit taking. When the profit taking does begin you may be able to "pop" the air pocket and touch the 1409 handle. It's just as the floor rises the ceiling does as well.
I assume most techies out there love the 3 day closing above the triple top.Quote from Dr.Greenback:
Who out there is long the current equity index markets and plans to stay long this time next week and, or for the rest of the month.
It will be interesting to see how that works out for you
I use a bullish bias with a pivot point system on the OEX
index. Even today, with the indexes short term overbought at the upper bollinder bands,
S1 provided a good call entry and R1 provided a good exit.
So the answer is yes, I am still trading this short term overbought market long, but I am taking smaller profits and not holding overnight.
I take smaller profits and eliminate overnight holding when the SPX is at the upper band of a 2 standard deviation bollinger band (daily candle time frame). When the SPX retraces back to the 40 day moving average, I increase profit size and will hold
overnight.
Jeff
Has it ever occured to all the bears that we have more assets in hedge funds than ever? What does that mean you ask?
It means there is plenty of dumb money going short right now complaining about the ~1,000 days since we had a 2% decline and trying to pick the top.
It means that all those "brilliant" doctors, executives, and accountants that thought they could read an income statement and decided to daytrade between patients and clients only to blow up and exit the game haven't come back to the market.
Form your own conclusions, but I recommend you write down the consecutive annual returns for the S&P500 going back 20-30+ years before finalizing your decision. Nevermind the surge in "target retirement date" mutual funds within retirement plans.
Best wishes!
It means there is plenty of dumb money going short right now complaining about the ~1,000 days since we had a 2% decline and trying to pick the top.
It means that all those "brilliant" doctors, executives, and accountants that thought they could read an income statement and decided to daytrade between patients and clients only to blow up and exit the game haven't come back to the market.
Form your own conclusions, but I recommend you write down the consecutive annual returns for the S&P500 going back 20-30+ years before finalizing your decision. Nevermind the surge in "target retirement date" mutual funds within retirement plans.
Best wishes!
The probability of a correction is always 50 percent. It doesnt change.