Stay Short Econo-news Reports Fri-def. Negative
- Thread starter BlueStreek
- Start date
wow! we actually have somebody on ET here with a brain!!!
Biggest life lesson I learned was that you'll just end up wasting your $$$ trying to predit the market; bes strategy is to always act and re-act to it, not to predict.
well eqttdr you better double up your longs then.....as tuesday`s econo-news looks to reinforce poor performing economy--even wed. doesn`t look good with oil reports coming out with oil traders feeling the effects of a cold front in new york.
However, I just think the markets are like turning around a big ship some times (especially---when it is in bull x-mas mode) it will take bad news to stop momentum, and then bad news to consolidate, then more bad news to change direction----which we should have for 5 consequtive days.
But your right----i am not a firm believer in efficient markets---you need to make money---not worry about what should be happening-----but what is---but you can gain an edge, if you know ahead of time, what the percentages are, of what the markets likely future direction will be----net net in 5 days from here I am positioning for a lower level.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 ET
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
7:45 ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 ET
Redbook
8:55 ET
Bank of Canada Announcement
9:00 ET
Factory Orders
10:00 ET
ISM Non-Mfg Survey
10:00 ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 ET
However, I just think the markets are like turning around a big ship some times (especially---when it is in bull x-mas mode) it will take bad news to stop momentum, and then bad news to consolidate, then more bad news to change direction----which we should have for 5 consequtive days.
But your right----i am not a firm believer in efficient markets---you need to make money---not worry about what should be happening-----but what is---but you can gain an edge, if you know ahead of time, what the percentages are, of what the markets likely future direction will be----net net in 5 days from here I am positioning for a lower level.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 ET
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
7:45 ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 ET
Redbook
8:55 ET
Bank of Canada Announcement
9:00 ET
Factory Orders
10:00 ET
ISM Non-Mfg Survey
10:00 ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 ET
I don't think so. The prices are already figured in mostly. Compared to all the alternatives (bonds and real estate) stocks are way way under valued on a liquidity and capital payback basis. Run the numbers. Real estate is near a bottom in most areas except rust belt (which admittedly is busted but has been for 10 years and is nothing new). A few overly hot large city areas are also still bubblish but there is NOT going to be a general bust. Real estate can not be replaced for the current prices in most areas (commodity and labor costs are still increasing and real estate is essentially a commodity of natural resources and oil/energy).
The bears already attempted to arm wrestle this bull to the ground and had their ass handed to them two times in a row since July/Aug. Santa is kicking in his reindeer team to help the bulls - watch this market go much higher into mid 2007. There are trillions of dollars in private equity, foreign money (using discounted dollars) and a large block of new money sitting in cash in mutual funds.
My advise - don't miss the train. We are going way higher and real estate will moderate and around mid 2007 kick in a bunch of new stimulus to growth as leveraged owners unwind equity and reduce debt.
This market movement has been so broad that I have made more money percentage wise going long for just two months than some people make in 2 years . I don't think you can go wrong if you focus on the demograhic shift in boomers looking for income from high yield dividend-growth stocks taxed at a max of 15% on distributions. It's candy land I tell you. Get some.
Just my 2 cents,
TS
i think we are already seeing the benefits of "new money" coming in....but the markets are not gaining.....just staying the same......propping it up......and once this stops......all the latecomers buying up the dips........and the market just treads water----then down----and down hard-----basically---the smart money handing off their winners to the ultimate bagholding losers who waited too long to get in on the buffet!
A good laugh
