Stats

V

vulture

In light of the recent rally from March 12th-Present, I looked at similar instances over the past 2 years, since the official bear market began...

From 10/10/02-12/2/02: Duration of rally was 37 trading days, percentage gain from actual low to actual high(SPX) +24.15%

From 7/24/02-8/22/02: 22 trading days, +24.40%

From 9/24/01-1/07/02: 74 trading days, +24.58%

From 3/22/01-5/22/01: 44 trading days, +21.71%

The current rally which made its swing low on 3/12/03 has lasted 56 trading days and has rallied +24.37%; if the market were to rally to the (mean) of the 4 aforementioned rallies, the projected high would be somewhere around 977-982(cash) SPX...

Just something to look at...
 
As a follow up to the above post, if the current multiplier between the INDU and SPX remains constant at 9.1844, then a rally of 24.37% from the low on 3/12/03 to the highs, this would project to a rally to 9027(cash) on the INDU, which is a resistance level another individual mentioned on here recently...
 
There is an assumption in the conclusion that we are still in a bear market since you said you looked for instances of this since the bear market has started.

Personally, I don't know whether we are or are not in a new bull market (and I don't really care much either way, but if I had to guess I'd say we're still in a bear)), but if we are, then the data you presented is invalidated because the conditions that existed during the testing no longer exist. Just some random musings.
 
Quote from Ikspec:

There is an assumption in the conclusion that we are still in a bear market since you said you looked for instances of this since the bear market has started.

Personally, I don't know whether we are or are not in a new bull market (and I don't really care much either way, but if I had to guess I'd say we're still in a bear)), but if we are, then the data you presented is invalidated because the conditions that existed during the testing no longer exist. Just some random musings.
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Well, to cater to all audiences, I should have just said the most "recent" examples of rallies in the "market", not bull, nor bear...This way I can just present a few numbers of the duration of swings without stepping on anyone's toes...So, we will leave it at that...
 
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