Quote from bladouc:
Everyone is always asking why should I be concerened about stats and how much does the average make.
(1) Bell Curve- the far majority of people fall into the catagory average. Do I hope to be better than average yes. But I have to assume that I will most likely fall in average. That's just how it works. So if I do Bright Trading I would like to know what is my most probable profit if I make it?
(2) Trading is going to take time and money. If I am going to be putting in time and money say for six months learning how to trade and the chances are like 1 in 500 and the trader that makes it is only making 70,000 a year... well THAT is why I want to know stats. So I can make a decision to NOT take the gamble.
Alligning yourself with BT is no more than a simple gambling problem.
Say 90% don't make it and lose 15,000 (on average) + say they would make (30,000) in that 6 months.
So 90% of the time you are losing 45,000
Say 10% of the time each year you average 150,000, and you did trading for 10 years. Say if you didn't do trading for 10 years and worked at a regular job you'd make 80,000 on average for 10 years. So if you are successfull at trading you making (150,000 * 10) - (80,000 * 10) = 700,000 more dollars.
So here's the equation - (9 * 45,000) >=< (1 * 700,000)
So as you can see in this equation it would be worth it to take the gamble.
Now I know that I am going to get all the numbers, but I know that some variables of the equation are known, which can help me make a better decision to as to if this is worth my time.
If anyone has ever looked at starting a business / buying a franchise you'll ask someone well how does the average person in the business do, and they'll say well it depends. NO IT DOES NOT DEPEND. The average is an average for a reason and it is the most like indicator as to how you are going to fare... simple rules that we learned about the bell curve in school.
bladouc, you are 100% correct.

