Stats Monkey Journal & Poll

M

mauzj

Hi,

I'm a Stats Monkey by trade with no career related trading experience, little other trading experience, but with a big desire to move into this area.

Why do I want to be a trader???

a - My first interviewer asked me; "How would you cope with having nothing to do all day?"
b - My fourth interviewer told me; "You can do anything you want... work 3 hours a day... take 28 days holiday a month... as long as you make money!"
c - All interviewers have asked me; "What motivates you? Money is not the wrong answer in this case."
.
.
.

Anyway, after numerous failed second interviews (I always get to the second and fall on my face!) I've come to the conclusion that the only thing I can really do is to get some experience of my own, and this is through trading. My job in a financial services firm has stringent compliance regulations, of which the weakest is in the FX area - presumably because you can't manipulate this. I have therefore started trading the Oanda FX game, and will move into real cash once I've got all the forms sorted (I need to open a USD account first as I'm a UK citizen). This will
a) Expose me to the psychological pressures of trading
b) Force my interviewers to take me more seriously (they seem to deride paper trading, but after reading about the lack of money management by students who win trading competitions I'm not surprised!)
c) Give me a head start when I get that elusive position.

So after all this rambling, I'm going to stick a screen shot detailing my trades over the last 24 hours. 3/4 were correct. 1/4 was wrong due to a stupid decision. However, my profits were low due to FEAR!

Please feel free to deride my trading skills. A wise man once told me "pain is weakness leaving the body!" so nasty words will help make me stronger.

Thank you for your patience (you must have it if you've got this far!).

The Stats Monkey.
 

Attachments

You may need to repost/edit your image file.

I clicked on it and EliteTrader saids your image file contains errors and couldn't be displayed.

NihabaAshi
 
Quote from mauzj:

Apologies, I forgot that my connection doesn't like http uploads.

Here's a link to it.

http://www.financialcharting.com/JonsOanda.20030604.gif

Regards,

The Stats Monkey.
More...

Thanks for the image...nice looking candlestick patterns.

Can you also post either on the charts or via a message in your next post that a chart is attached...

where you enter (Long or Short)...where you exit...

Also...what is your trade methodology or trading plan as you continue this journal?...

because I truly cannot answer your poll based on a chart(s) with no useful info other than words like fear...

although candlestick charts always look cool to me.

Hope you get some good poll results or direct replies over the next few days or weeks as you keep posting charts with useful info

Good luck.

P.S. A month long journal with position (Long or Short), price entry/exit...why you took the trade and why you exited the trade...

should be enough to generate a good poll results while not revealing any specifics to your system.

NihabaAshi
 
NihabaAshi,

On the charts, the green upwards arrows indicate buying and the red downwards arrows indicate selling. Red squares indicate stops. I also grouped trades by drawing lines around them.

I aim to trade purely on technial analysis. I've read a few books and do not believe that I will be able to progress further until I start applying my knowledge.

Unfortunately I do not have a month long journal, so I will have to start from here.

Thanks,


Jon.

Quote from NihabaAshi:



Thanks for the image...nice looking candlestick patterns.

Can you also post either on the charts or via a message in your next post that a chart is attached...

where you enter (Long or Short)...where you exit...

Also...what is your trade methodology or trading plan as you continue this journal?...

because I truly cannot answer your poll based on a chart(s) with no useful info other than words like fear...

although candlestick charts always look cool to me.

Hope you get some good poll results or direct replies over the next few days or weeks as you keep posting charts with useful info

Good luck.

P.S. A month long journal with position (Long or Short), price entry/exit...why you took the trade and why you exited the trade...

should be enough to generate a good poll results while not revealing any specifics to your system.

NihabaAshi
More...
 
5th June 2003-06-05
22:11 GMT

Long at 1.1641
Stop Loss 1.1588
Target 1.1800
Reward:Risk – 3:1

http://www.financialcharting.com/JonsOanda.20030604_end1.gif
http://www.financialcharting.com/JonsOanda.20030604_end2.gif

Prior Analysis

Daily chart:
- The price dropped near the 1.1620 support below which is a gap.
- The rising trend line should provide support if the gap is violated.
- There is not much resistance until the descending top of the triangle (about 1.1860)

Hourly chart:
- Looks like it’s about to bounce off the support of the descending channel (this is weak support as the channel is falling and a bounce hasn’t manifested itself yet!).
- Doji candle signals a reversal.

5 minute chart:
- Looks like it’s just completed a 5 wave decline and has hit something fairly solid.

Trade reasoning:

- The evidence pointed to a rise in my opinion.
- I was not convinced that the price was right at the bottom, but I had to go to bed and didn’t want to miss the move. I therefore decided to place a 50 pip stop at 1.1588.
- The target was quite hard to decide on as the hourly shows a lot of resistance, but the daily shows none of significance before the descending triangle line. I therefore placed it a bit above the prior high, below the resistance, and with thoughts on maybe moving it later.

What happened:

I left the position over night, and it showed a 50 pip profit in the morning. A new look at the chart suggested that 1.1800 was not the best place to place the target as it’s just above the gap on the hourly chart. However, I didn’t have time to play around with the charts anymore and decided it was best to leave it be (I have a day job to do!) rather than making loads of indecisive modifications.
At lunch the price shot through my target and the position closed.

As the price broke through the psychological 1.1800 barrier and the gap a limit order entered the market…

http://www.financialcharting.com/JonsOanda.20030605a.gif

Long at 1.1810
Stop loss 1.1790
Target 1.1890
Reward:risk – 4:1

I figured that if the price broke through both the gap and psychological 1.1800 then it would have the strength to test the previous highs at 1.1890.

(Despite me trading purely on technicals, a colleague informed me of the interesting news regarding an expected drop in European rates. My positions were therefore against conventional wisdom. However, I figured that if the rate cut did not occur then maybe the prices would have been undervalued due to expectations and that I could therefore enjoy an even bigger rise as prices adjusted – my gambit proved successful)

n.b. I aim to risk about 1% of my account per trade. Therefore this position (with it’s 20 pip stop as opposed to the earlier 50 pip stop), though involving smaller movements than the earlier, offered a greater profit potential.

What happened:

The price rocketted upwards and peaked at 1.1888 – 3 pips below my target!! [the 3 pips includes the spread]. A top reversal pattern appeared on the 5 minute chart (dark cloud cover?) so I closed the position at 1.1873 for a 63 pip profit.

Should I have held?

Or would it be wiser to move my stop up?
 
mauzj,

I'm trying to follow the charts but would prefer to look at my own charts in comparison.

What symbol is that via your data providor?

I seem to not be able to bring up a chart via QCharts.

Yep...those Dark Cloud Covers are usually a good indicator to lock in profits.

NihabaAshi
 
NihabaAshi,

The product is the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate. I'm not sure if it has a symbol - I just use the free charts from http://www.pfxtrade.com.

Thanks for looking at my trades, I'd appreciate any feedback that you have.

Regards,


The Stats Monkey.

Quote from NihabaAshi:

mauzj,

I'm trying to follow the charts but would prefer to look at my own charts in comparison.

What symbol is that via your data providor?

I seem to not be able to bring up a chart via QCharts.

Yep...those Dark Cloud Covers are usually a good indicator to lock in profits.

NihabaAshi
More...
 
Quote from mauzj:

NihabaAshi,

The product is the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate. I'm not sure if it has a symbol - I just use the free charts from http://www.pfxtrade.com.

Thanks for looking at my trades, I'd appreciate any feedback that you have.

Regards,


The Stats Monkey.
More...

I just found out QCharts doesn't offer FOREX info...

I'll use by boring broker stuff or the link you posted. Thanks.

Soon I want to start exploring the FOREX markets and some friends have been recommending the EUR/USD to me.

NihabaAshi
 
Today was not a good day. I lost both my trades.

6th June 2003

Time: 0830
Short at 1.1829
S/L: 1.1849
T/P: 1.1780
Reward:Risk – 5:2

http://www.financialcharting.com/20030606a.gif
http://www.financialcharting.com/20030606b.gif

Prior Analysis:

Daily Chart – The price was at the top of a descending triangle.

Hourly Chart – The price was sitting at the bottom of a descending triangle.

5 Minute chart – The price had just broken downwards out of a descending channel.

Trade Reasoning:

- The price breaking out of the 5 minute chart’s channel and led me to believe that an impending breakout from the hourly chart’s support was inevitable.
- The stop loss of 1.1849 was in the middle of a congestion zone on the 5 minute chart.
- The target price of 1.1780 was
1) a prior high on the hourly chart
2) the 38% retracement of the previous day’s rally (see hourly chart).

What happened:

- The hourly chart’s descending channel became a wedge and then a descending flag before plummeting downwards- taking out my stop before it went south.

09:51

long at 1.1854
Stop: 1.1834
Target: undecided

The hourly chart was breaking out of a descending wedge (bullish continuation?).
The 5 minute chart was breaking out (upwards) of a descending channel.

I therefore went long, but prices decided to go the other way and I lost.

Question: When my positions move into profit, at what point is it prudent to shift my stops towards my entry price to prevent a loss?
 
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