Stats don't lie

[777]

Intraday bars consolidate and trend.

How do you know this?

Ray Dalio often asks himself "How do I know what I know is true".

So... I am not arguing a side, but rather asking a serrious question.

 

[777]

From what I've learned so far, it's more important for me to find ways to enter trades with minimal risk and the returns will follow. After all, negative compound returns cost more than positive compound returns gain.

Your exits and COSTS are critical to day trading, as well as your entries.

Traders of the New Era could be valuable to your understanding the true structure of the markets, how to get the best fills, and how a fair number of winning traders think.

Backtesting is excellent but sometimes in real life the trades can not be made or the best fills and lowest costs are needed. But for some, backtesting has been a major key.

 

[ToddGaack23]

How do you know this?

Ray Dalio often asks himself "How do I know what I know is true".

So... I am not arguing a side, but rather asking a serrious question.

Because I know there is not a sufficient number of adequate ranges to deploy such a strategy on any given day. The other thing statisitics tell me is signal bar entries are a fallacy. Watching the bid/ask flip near my defined entry zone is an ideal alternative. In fact, separating statistical probability from visual signals (patterns) was the first thing I learned.

 

[777]

Because I know there is not a sufficient number of adequate ranges to deploy such a strategy on any given day. The other thing statisitics tell me is signal bar entries are a fallacy. Watching the bid/ask flip near my defined entry zone is an ideal alternative. In fact, separating statistical probability from visual signals (patterns) was the first thing I learned.

Statistics?

Have you personally gone over lots of data or read this, perhaps from a knowledgeable source?

Trying to understand where you are comming from and not knocking.

 

[NeoTrader]

After years of research and backtesting I learned the most important concept for the day trader is to buy below a given low and sell above a given high. Your rules and time determinants are secondary. A trader can expect a higher return to risk which is the definition of an edge.

I think that's going to make a great intro for the book you're probably going write/already wrote.

 

[FreakofNature]

After years of research and backtesting I learned the most important concept for the day trader is to buy below a given low and sell above a given high. Your rules and time determinants are secondary. A trader can expect a higher return to risk which is the definition of an edge.

In a range environment, yes. In a trending environment, you dead.

 

[hurricane_sh]

Every time I think I get it, the next trading day is a disaster.

 

[oraclewizard77]

To developing a trading system based on stats you must look at

1) Risk vs Reward
2) Win% & know that higher win % = scalping
3) Time
4) Volume
5) Price
6) Trend
7) Stops vs Targets
8) Trade Setups
9) Daily loss limit.

Also, out of these 9 items, a good trader will know which one of them is most important.

 

[fordewind]

... you dead.

probably already.

my stats says otherwise: "go with the trend in any environment".

 

[FreakofNature]

probably already.

my stats says otherwise: "go with the trend in any environment".

That goes without saying, the hard part is defining what the trend is and most important, where.