Statistics: why the stock market is the easiest market to trade

[DepthTrade]

More correctly, it is stock index values that have an upward bias, not individual stocks.

Yep and this is because for instance, to be listed on the dow jones one needs to meet certain criteria and when you don't, you're unlisted and replaced. If you look at how many companies have been replaced on that index, you'll see it has collapsed over and over again since it's inception. That's why it's always creeping up, losers are quietly replaced by a mover.
So, when you see a crash it's really worse than we realize, because stocks can't even be replaced fast enough.

 

[SunTrader]

So the stock market has a upward bias and today at the 9:30 open Dow, S&P, Naz and Russell futures were all up near their globex highs. They then all went higher ... except the Dow. Then the Dow started breaking down and went to a new LOD low of the day. Hey what happened? The research said ..... The others broke but not as much. Good chance it was all meaningless in the big picture.

But stats show buying the day after a down day is better odds than after an up day and vice versa. Though as others have said already traders not investors care about today. Not tomorrow.

 

[helpme_please]

The stock market is the easiest market to trade simply because unlike other markets, the stock market has a 1 directional bias (i.e. goes up more often than it goes down). Other markets like forex & commodities have a 50-50 probability of going up vs down.

This means that trading forex and commodities is harder than trading the stock market. Here’s the data to prove it.

https://bullmarkets.co/stat-stocks/

I disagree. The easiest is the real estate market. Most people I know who speculate in real estate make money. Most people I know who speculate in stocks lose money.

 

[tomorton]

I disagree. The easiest is the real estate market. Most people I know who speculate in real estate make money. Most people I know who speculate in stocks lose money.

It doesn't necessarily follow. Apart from anything else, the real estate demands a far greater initial capital per "trade", so participants are not the same group or characteristics. The stock market has such a low barrier to initial participation that any clueless idiot can be in within minutes.

 

[_eug_]

Real estate can also pose serious liquidity issues depending on where you buy. Also transaction costs are heavy (mortgage penalties, legal costs, land tranfer taxes etc.).