Statistics Question

Thanks everyone for your replies.

"So if something happens in 10 out of 10 cases chances are that it will happen the 11th time as well."

The above is my train of thought as well.

Will also look into the chi-square test...but at the risk of getting technical...is the following a fair hypothesis:

-the market is random
-with an equal profit target and stop-loss, the percentage of wins should tend towards 50%

Therefore:

The probability that something happens 10/10 cases is .09765%, which is extremely low.

Therefore:

If "Lets say when there is a situation "A", "B" will occur" were to play out 10/10 cases, it would be fair to say that this is not random (???)
 
Quote from tatsimon:

Thanks everyone for your replies.

"So if something happens in 10 out of 10 cases chances are that it will happen the 11th time as well."
More...

Taleb points out that, for the unsuspecting Thanksgiving turkey, life seems good. They're well-fed and kept for days on end. They're living the life. Each day of feeding boosts their confidence in being fed tomorrow. The problem, of course, is that all that fattening and making the turkey happy are a means to an end – the end being THE END for the turkey.
 
Quote from Visaria:

Taleb points out that, for the unsuspecting Thanksgiving turkey, life seems good. They're well-fed and kept for days on end. They're living the life. Each day of feeding boosts their confidence in being fed tomorrow. The problem, of course, is that all that fattening and making the turkey happy are a means to an end – the end being THE END for the turkey.
More...


All that fattening and being happy is not a problem. THE END is for all.

Who is this Taleb guy?
 
Quote from tatsimon:

All that fattening and being happy is not a problem. THE END is for all.

Who is this Taleb guy?
More...

In short author of the book "Fooled by randomness" (and other books plus he was or is working on Wall Street).

He considers all processes random and that we are all fooled by randomness thinking that if 4/5 or 10/10 occurs than we think that we have a pattern (know something for sure) which in his opinion is not true (in short).

It is a good read but one has to consider that this is a book that has to sell so he presents extreme point of view on randomness.
 
Quote from Visaria:

Taleb points out that, for the unsuspecting Thanksgiving turkey, life seems good. They're well-fed and kept for days on end. They're living the life. Each day of feeding boosts their confidence in being fed tomorrow. The problem, of course, is that all that fattening and making the turkey happy are a means to an end – the end being THE END for the turkey.
More...
Turkeys are idiots. They're not smart enough to figure out that if they aren't feeding themselves, they're just serving somebody else's agenda. I don't expect any better from turkeys. I do expect better from adult humans. Taleb is an idiot if he thinks his turkey analogy universally applies to people. Most adults are smart enough to know There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.

And if everything was random, there would be no natural laws. But there are plenty of natural laws. Ergo ...
 
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