Statistical Trading Using the Open

Quote from trhudson:

Very interesting concept, but probably? or probability?
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Just an old time-tested (as opposed to back-tested) rule of thumb.


To reiterate, SUR has gap, unfilled for weeks. For me, it's a moat.
 
Quote from efficiency:

Just an old time-tested (as opposed to back-tested) rule of thumb.


To reiterate, SUR has gap, unfilled for weeks. For me, it's a moat.
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Don't follow that one trades less than 100k a day, except somebody bought a bunch of it. That looks like somebody might know something.

For what it's worth, the data I am posting in the post is for intra-day trading only.
 
Quote from trhudson:

Don't follow that one trades less than 100k a day, except somebody bought a bunch of it. That looks like somebody might know something.

For what it's worth, the data I am posting in the post is for intra-day trading only.
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I wouldn't expect you to follow. Merely used as an example. Aside from the spike on the break, nice and quiet. Note the word nice.

Regardless of intra-day, day, week, month, or buy and hold., thee open is still thee open. At times it has an underlying agenda. "A specialness" to it.

Intra-day is where I scratch trades. informally after 3 hours, otherwise at close.
 
Quote from trhudson:

Does anyone use the Open as a key component of their trading method / strategy?

My research shows that the Open is crucial to the direction of the trading day. I developed an Open Probabilities calculator that will gives ranges for where the Open may occur and probabilities of certain prices being met during the trading day.

Working on a Gap Probabilities Calculator that will do the same for Gaps. I will complete this today.
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SPY comprised from 500 issues and should mirror the underlying index. Each issue has a specialist. Individual issues open in accordance with alibis (if any).

A material gap would reflect multiple axes acting in concert. I don't feel gaps can be predicted rendering a gap probability calculator or frequency distribution (regardless of quantity of samples) coincidental at best. Pre-market indications and "fair value" just shills to move paper. Note I previously used the phrase "amateur hour".

Probability? The element of surprise is just one of the arrows in the axe's quiver.
 
Quote from jprad:

Don't you ever read the news on why something gapped on heavy volume?

CNA Financial to buy CNA Surety
CHICAGO (AP) -- Insurance company CNA Financial Corp. said Thursday it will buy all the outstanding shares of CNA Surety Corp. for $26.55 in cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CNA-Financial-to-buy-CNA-apf-2043101788.html?x=0&.v=1
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"Y"??? Price explains news not news explains price.

Yep, I seldom read news. Price tells me there's an alibi (whether genuine or contrived).

Gap was 3 points below the offer and drew out 3 million shares (the spike). A miniscule proportion of the float. 3 million that didn't think $26 1/2 would materialize. From a time value standpoint, it's worth a 6 month wait for a "sure" 3 points per 100 shares. That 3 million shares was inventory for the ax to peddle back up to where it is. He hasn't unloaded all he acquired.

Still have my moat and a reasonable profit. Situated quite well, TY.

Incidently, SUR was previously spun off........FROM CNA. A tender is a tender. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

You just won yourself a trip to land of ignore, with your pithy little one-liner, FH
 
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