Starting To Sell Stuff-

S

stonedinvestor

Well it's happened that divine combination of having cycled through one's watch list and bought everything... and I have no new ideas...AND an inner feeling that the stock market is going to pause up here to digest gains... more specifically sell off again that 3%-5%.

I have begun to sell some names.
This is a liberating feeling the answer back is always we don't have a LT capital gain yet and I say just do it.

There will be no more fed easings, I don't think and I don't think the market will like that. And I'm just not comfortable with this whole earnings season being a write off... with all these low earnings in the bank sector won't that effect the market's PE? I'm not buying that next qtr magically everything is back to norm... there is a big disJOINT coming I fear-- probably late Oct early Nov... but there's a side of me that thinks this week is the week to raise some cash. For someone who lives 100% fully invested all the time and hardly has a bank account, it's important to pick and choose your places. If you miss a couple huge up days your performance is ruined-- that's why folks always try to pressure you to stay with it. I've gotten to the point where I feel I know when corrections are apt to come; it's an ebb and flow thing, right now I've just crossed the hump. I've started to flow not ebb.

Some Sells
LVS, HLF, CREE, LUX

(I snuck in two 1/2 positions as is my way!
GAIA & TINY.) ~ stoney
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Well it's happened that divine combination of having cycled through one's watch list and bought everything... and I have no new ideas...AND an inner feeling that the stock market is going to pause up here to digest gains... more specifically sell off again that 3%-5%.
More...

Right or wrong, 'nuff said.
 
Always right my friend.

stonedinvesting is now 13.4% Cash.

this is where we will stay.

for how long? I cannot say?

I have analyzed this from every direction

and there is only one stat that gives me pause- that is

82% of S&P co's are above their 50 day.
When we were last at record levels and failed
only 60% were hitting highs... more participation =
healthier rally.

Now sometimes as a contrary thing we look at a T-108? Or something indicator, I've managed to lose my notes on this but it is a similar indicator but used to spot blow offs and in the old days it was very very accurate, it may be the number of stocks over 200 day I can't remember this morning but how the 82% of stocks making highs related to the other indicator if I can find it may hold the key to this market.

Help m,e if you can. T-108 indicator? This is the downside of stonedinvesting long term memory-- I used to get this information from Dan Fitzpatrick when his stuff was free on Steet.com. ~ stoney
 
Yesterday a positive reaction from the Fed policy minutes sparked a broad rally in the final ninety minutes of trading. This time, the S&P and Dow slightly outperformed the Nasdaq for a change. Don't like that at all. Volume returned after the passing of the Columbus Day holiday. Total volume in the NYSE increased 39%, while volume in the Nasdaq came in 25% above the previous day's level. Nevertheless, the turnover increase was not enough to push volume levels above their 50-day averages.* !!!!Don't like that!

It has been several weeks since volume in either the Nasdaq or NYSE came in above average, indicating that institutions have not been aggressively supporting stock prices. Obviously it doesn't require a lot of buying interest to push the major indices higher when they are already trading at new highs. Demand only needs to be marginally higher than overhead supply, which is basically non-existent when an index or stock is at a new 52-week high. It's called a Drift High baby, but what's behind it? shrinking earnings?

The daily chart of the Nasdaq has begun to move above the upper channel resistance of its intermediate-term ascending trend.Though a strongly trending index can hug the upper channel of an uptrend for a long time, one of the most reliable indicators for an index being "overbought" is when it climbs above the upper channel. This is happening NOW.

At the very least Nasdog players we would want to see a pullback to the 10-day MA, presently at the 2,743 level. Even better would be a retracement to the 20-day EMA (at 2,703). A pullback from current levels would be good for the overall health of the market, as it would prevent stocks from getting too overheated. But it's also important that sharply higher volume does not coincide with a correction. And you know IT WILL!

REMEMBER FOLKS- The Nasdaq already had two days of higher volume selling last week, so more than two additional "distribution days" will put the current uptrend in danger.

On the Eco front 1 week ago there was a 74% chance for a 1/4 rate cut at the next meeting. That chance event is now down to 48% and will fall further. I believe there may be a couple quarter points coming down the line but at the next meeting they will have to send the message that things are getting better not worse and you can only send that message by NOT lowering rates! That hopefully will stop the Dollar free fall and complete a very tricky and successful set of actions by our new Fed Head.

~ SI
 
Stoney~ Are you associated with Morpheus Trading?



Broad Market Analysis - Gold Miners ETF poised for breakout

After oscillating in a sideways range throughout most of the day, a positive reaction from the Fed policy minutes sparked a broad rally in the final ninety minutes of trading. This time, the S&P and Dow slightly outperformed the Nasdaq for a change. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%, the S&P 500 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.7% and the S&P Midcap 400 rallied 0.8%. Each of the major indices closed near their intraday highs.

Volume returned after the passing of the Columbus Day holiday. Total volume in the NYSE increased 39%, while volume in the Nasdaq came in 25% above the previous day's level. Nevertheless, the turnover increase was not enough to push volume levels above their 50-day averages. It has been several weeks since volume in either the Nasdaq or NYSE came in above average, indicating that institutions have not been aggressively supporting stock prices. Still, it doesn't require a lot of buying interest to push the major indices higher when they are already trading at new highs. Demand only needs to be marginally higher than overhead supply, which is basically non-existent when an index or stock is at a new 52-week high. Advancing volume in the NYSE exceeded declining volume by nearly 3 to 1. The Nasdaq ratio was positive by just over 3 to 2.

Recently, we have been analyzing the near-term pullback in the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD), as well as discussing potential entry points in anticipation of further price appreciation. Perhaps an even better opportunity is The Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), which is comprised of a basket of gold mining stocks. GLD, on the other hand, mirrors the price of the spot gold commodity. Until recently, GDX was lagging behind and showing relative weakness to GLD. However, this appears to have changed since the recent top was put in place. Yesterday, for example, GDX rallied 2.6%. GLD gained just 0.8%. Now, its three-week base of consolidation has GDX poised to break out to a new high. If it does, we will look to buy the breakout:


The daily chart of the Nasdaq has begun to move above the upper channel resistance of its intermediate-term ascending trend. This is illustrated below:


Though a strongly trending index can hug the upper channel of an uptrend for a long time, one of the most reliable indicators for an index being "overbought" is when it climbs above the upper channel. This, of course, does not mean that it will immediately snap back into the range of the primary ascending channel. However, it does mean that stops on long positions should be trailed tightly and new long positions should probably be avoided until a decent correction eventually comes. At the least, we would want to see a pullback to the 10-day MA, presently at the 2,743 level. Even better would be a retracement to the 20-day EMA (at 2,703).

A pullback from current levels would be good for the overall health of the market, as it would prevent stocks from getting too overheated. But it's also important that sharply higher volume does not coincide with a correction. The Nasdaq already had two days of higher volume selling last week, so more than two additional "distribution days" within the next several weeks would put the current uptrend in danger.

The positive for the market is that the rallies in the S&P and Dow have been more gradual. Neither is yet in danger of being significantly "overbought," at least in the short-term. Remember that quarterly earnings season is kicking in. As such, be prepared for the unpredictable moves that follow earnings surprises in market-leading companies.

If you wish to learn about Morpheus Trading Group's ETF trade entries on the same day they occur, sign up for a free trial to The Wagner Daily or other MTG services by clicking here (limit one per household). Also, remember that all previously published issues of both The Wagner Daily and The Wagner Weekly are available in the MTG archives. If you are new to our services or wish to broaden your knowledge of ETF trading or our general trading style, we recommend you browse the archives because it is educational and free! Click here to visit the Wagner Daily archives or here to visit the Wagner Weekly archives.
 
By the way it just occurred to me you may not of meant that in a friendly manner in which case I should explain. I am guilty as anyone as to not having full conviction of my calls and I monitor many data basis and countless point of views to aid in my trading. When I decide to make a move in my big account on a Macro call I tend to gravitate to somewhere that is in keeping with my newly formed view- In this case for a correction. believe me they are plenty off bull set ups to talk about... But that;'s the beauty of being and technician or an economist you can bend the numbers to make your case or to make yourself feel better which I do quite often. You'll notice when I sign off SI instead of stoney it means I'm deep in some arcane muckity muck -planetary or cycle theory or otherwise and trying to boost my already made case. I have to rely on smart people I have come to trust over the years for some of this stuff- I am an English major after all!
Best
stoney
 
You got it. What goes in my head you get for free. It's what I base my trades on. As an English major who also ghost writes a lot of sports stuff,
I get nipped all the time, part of the business. The key is to make it more interesting which I do.

When a mutual fund manager is on Bloomberg TV and points out all the salient points to buy a stock and I do and it happens to go up, you can be sure it's portrayed to my friends & family as my idea!
Unfortunately they are usually talking their book and it's a set up. So once again it's the prism of my experience you get for better or worse. And my $'s on the line.

As always, I cite the bottom line. ~ stoney
 
Ok folks odd decline so far ugly numbers wise but not so hard on the eyes. Lets remember what is happening now overseas that bastion of strength is tossing in bad numbers. Companies like ARA in Brazil hurt by their rising currency vs our falling dollar. Heavy industry companies appear to be signaling further weakness as a whole the earnings picture is unclear. oil and gas plays are in a pickle more bad earnings there weigh on the misses in financial sector, if steel guides lower down comes the house of cards...Step away from unclarity. ~ stoney

Market Update Briefing.com
1:30 PM ET 10/10/07

The Dow has given up all of yesterday's 121 point gain and then some as selling interest picks up. The three indices have hit fresh intraday lows. There is not a specific news item that would account for the decline other than a great call by stonedinvestor yesterday over at Elite Trader.
 
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