Thank you all for making me aware of DCA as well as the fact that I will be investing few $ a month instead of a lump sum at one specific point of time.
I think that in hindsight with US markets and the perpetual bull market that we have been on.....it's easier to say to invest in 401k because long term that has been proven to be true. But what if something shifts in terms of the world reserve currency changing, US loses it's dominance in terms of currency status, and say a long bear market happens?? We will probably print in the end, but you never "truly know".
Let's say you were investing at the top in 2000 and markets never bottomed in 2009, and it was a similar case of Japan in the 1990...would that still be good? Or would have saving 60-70% of your money every payroll, near the peak of the market and slowly building your own capital been a lot better? Then when there was a high probability of a bottom, to get in with that capital?
I understand timing the market is very hard. But over the past 10 years, I have started to understand what causes markets to start declining as well as bottom. It's never an exact science, but sometimes art too. Similar to the 2018 top, I could easily see it and yes I did think that was the top. I also saw the bottom in Dec 2018, but what I did not see was that we would take out a key resistance level and be where we are now. And I do see us taking out the current highs and blasting higher until 1-2 years down the line.
Anyways, I'm just wondering if building your own reserves would be better for someone adequately skilled in market timing. The present value of having money NOW and the freedom to do what I would like with it NOW?
Sure I might have more money in the future and tax advantage with 401k, but considering I save most of my salary anyway and reinvest towards the future....I'm wondering how one would calculate the trade off? Or is strictly 401k and Roth IRA the answer, in which 1+1=2?