Quote from Dustin:
Hey SF,
There's a few thoughts I had reading your journal. I'm in the East Bay btw.
1. Being new to this, you don't have the benefit of hindsight and experience to know when a market is good or bad for trading. For <u>equity traders</u> this market is terrible. No liquidity, no *real* volatility, no panic or euphoria. This is a time for grinding and capital preservation.
2. Correlations are at an all time high. This means lack of opportunity for us. The algos have tightened things up so much that everything pretty much trends together, and this sucks. You have probably never seen a market come unhinged but it feels a lot different than what you see today.
3. You have chosen some of the worst stocks to trade. GS and F are terrible algo driven garbage. I know quite a few great traders and I don't think any would disagree (incl Lescor). Stock selection is important, and sticking to one stock, or a small selection can be a great way to learn and survive. I suggest finding stocks that are more momentum driven with liquidity, volume, and volatility. That will give you the best chance in my opinion because those stocks have large percentage moves, and most importantly reasons to move. Your winners have to be big enough to make up for your losers.
4. Trade-Ideas is your best friend, and cheap. It will find you stuff in play, and that's where the money is. Especially when the market becomes wild. Also if you have ideas for automation, you can link up TI and play with your own algos which is the future of trading (unfortunately).
5. An experienced trader makes most of his income during periods of stress in the market. A good trader can do 5-10X his average year in a *good* trading year. This would have been 1997, 1998, 2001, 2007, 2008 in recent history. 2011 definitely isn't included in the list. There will be guys that tell you otherwise, but between myself and the guys I know, this market is no good.
What does all this mean for you and other new traders? It means the odds are stacked way against you, and you need to have realistic expectations about when you can become profitable. Usually you see 6-12 months thrown around as break even, but you are probably looking at longer than that. I can say without a doubt that if I started trading today I would fail. I'll make enough this year to pay my mortgage and feed my family, but it was damn hard and I look forward to better times.
Anyway, good luck.