Start Of A Bear Market? Inquiring minds want to know...

i960 said:
I picked up some SPY 2000 Sep lotto tickets on Friday in case of a fighting rally back up before it drops again.

If the Fed were to do QE4 they'd only be making inevitable crash even worse.
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Good catch!
 
How are investors supposed to have any confidence in the Markets when they are so thin they can be easily manipulated and Fundamentals don't seem to matter at all?
 
Pricechange said:
I think we need way more bagholders and sheep at the retail level holding long before we ever see anything more than repricing of well publicized current events. Not nearly enough retail involved since the 666 bottom. This could be a positioning of a much longer term bull trap...bring it down, gets some attention from the sheep, V it right back up again in the face of a few small hikes (remember how they ran it upward "after" Greenspan hiked in the last year of Bush HW into Clinton first years) and push higher into Christmas/Spring. Then you would have a great setup for a large retail entering and then another harvest of the 2000 kind (remember, Tech and Biotech are the saviors of the millennial generation)....for a good bear market you want large participation from a generation that did not experience/remember the last one of its type and character. Hell, they have not even IPOed Uber and Airbnb yet!
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I am thinking along similar lines. Does anyone know of a bear market happening without the smart/big money first offloading to retail? Considering we have been in bull (a very hated bull) since 2009 I have never seen so much fear in retail. From what I can see most have one foot out the door at all times and many refuse to play. Logically the market needs to go high enough to the point where greed overtakes fear. How high is that, who knows. Just doesn't feel like a bear market is in the interests of the smart/big money at the moment.
 
DrEvil said:
I am thinking along similar lines. Does anyone know of a bear market happening without the smart/big money first offloading to retail? Considering we have been in bull (a very hated bull) since 2009 I have never seen so much fear in retail. From what I can see most have one foot out the door at all times and many refuse to play. Logically the market needs to go high enough to the point where greed overtakes fear. How high is that, who knows. Just doesn't feel like a bear market is in the interests of the smart/big money at the moment.
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ha, ha, ha, It's us little buy and hold retail that are supporting this market. Let the pros have their fun and trade the range.
 
DrEvil said:
I am thinking along similar lines. Does anyone know of a bear market happening without the smart/big money first offloading to retail? Considering we have been in bull (a very hated bull) since 2009 I have never seen so much fear in retail. From what I can see most have one foot out the door at all times and many refuse to play. Logically the market needs to go high enough to the point where greed overtakes fear. How high is that, who knows. Just doesn't feel like a bear market is in the interests of the smart/big money at the moment.
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Probably 2000. Music stopped at that party like a needle getting knocked off the record.
 
DrEvil said:
I am thinking along similar lines. Does anyone know of a bear market happening without the smart/big money first offloading to retail? Considering we have been in bull (a very hated bull) since 2009 I have never seen so much fear in retail. From what I can see most have one foot out the door at all times and many refuse to play. Logically the market needs to go high enough to the point where greed overtakes fear. How high is that, who knows. Just doesn't feel like a bear market is in the interests of the smart/big money at the moment.
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"Retail" has been replaced by big, dumb and momo chasing hedge funds...There are more than enough of them on the other side of the trade to create selling pressure on the way down...If you can honestly look at the charts of GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX and a host of other "glam" tech stocks and not see the tell tale signs of a blowoff top, then more power to you...
 
i960 said:
Probably 2000. Music stopped at that party like a needle getting knocked off the record.
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And with parabolic moves in tech stops right when that music stopped...There are plenty of tech stocks that have literally doubled in less than a year...Right into the composite highs from 15 years ago...

The eerie thing is that they are still sitting up there, so I can't rule out some more "goosing" to keep this thing elevated for awhile longer.
 
loyek590 said:
better question would be, "Will the great Bull Market die when the baby boomers start dying?"
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That's a really great observation...IMO, this entire episode has been about getting the boomers "out" at artificially inflated prices...whether its real estate, stocks, etc...that Fed balance sheet expansion created that ever present bid for the boomers to have a third chance in 15 years to liquidate, (albeit into what I have no idea...ZIRP ain't gonna pay for their retirement).
 
der_kommissar said:
That's a really great observation...IMO, this entire episode has been about getting the boomers "out" at artificially inflated prices...whether its real estate, stocks, etc...that Fed balance sheet expansion created that ever present bid for the boomers to have a third chance in 15 years to liquidate, (albeit into what I have no idea...ZIRP ain't gonna pay for their retirement).
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Heck at the rate we're going, and with the apparent disinterest of Millenials (in basically everything it seems), it might be the end of the markets in general.
 
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