Start Of A Bear Market? Inquiring minds want to know...

[Scataphagos]

EWZ (Brazil) below 19 for long term investment, you can thank me later.

Doubt that I would.

Considering the state of world markets, seems $22 for EWZ is waaayyy too early.

I might be tempted at $6-$7.

And if we get the kind of collapse many are forecasting at this time, perhaps better to wait for $2?

Let's not forget.. the BTFD'ers get hosed early on in "The Big Decline".... if that's what we're in the early stages of.

(Buying @ -90% from the high isn't a "no-brainer".I recall a tech fund which lost -97.5%, after the pop of the tech bubble. Buying that one at -90% from the high still would have left the buyer down -75% at the low... needing a 300% gain to break even.)

 

[Autodidact]

Doubt that I would.

Considering the state of world markets, seems $22 for EWZ is waaayyy too early.

I might be tempted at $6-$7.

And if we get the kind of collapse many are forecasting at this time, perhaps better to wait for $2?

Let's not forget.. the BTFD'ers get hosed early on in "The Big Decline".... if that's what we're in the early stages of.

(Buying @ -90% from the high isn't a "no-brainer".I recall a tech fund which lost -97.5%, after the pop of the tech bubble. Buying that one at -90% from the high still would have left the buyer down -75% at the low... needing a 300% gain to break even.)

I said below 19 not 22 and if we get to 6, as you wish, the div on the index would just get too good; dont think it can happen.

 

[Scataphagos]

I said below 19 not 22 and if we get to 6, as you wish, the div on the index would just get too good; dont think it can happen.

HaHa. Just watch, Buckeroo.

A lot of big name gurus are looking for BIG, BIG down.... if that occurs, whose who "kept their power dry" will have a huge opportunity. And likely below $19. Perhaps even $12, or $4. We'll see.

 

[Scataphagos]

I said below 19 not 22 and if we get to 6, as you wish, the div on the index would just get too good; dont think it can happen.

Wouldn't rely upon any dividend. If the price gets too low, it's a huge incentive for a dividend cut.

 

[Autodidact]

HaHa. Just watch, Buckeroo.

A lot of big name gurus are looking for BIG, BIG down.... if that occurs, whose who "kept their power dry" will have a huge opportunity.

Big bi down happene when fee expect it.

 

[Scataphagos]

Big bi down happene when fee expect it.

Yeah... like NOW!

In spite of the "BIG-BIG Down right now" callers, I see the possibility this decline is actually a "4th wave dip" from the 2009 low"... with a "5th wave up" to follow. Jim Rogers is offering the possibility the Fed comes with "QE4... and one final push to save the equities markets". That would be the "5th wave up from 2009"... and is a consideration to keep in mind for now.

 

[i960]

I picked up some SPY 2000 Sep lotto tickets on Friday in case of a fighting rally back up before it drops again.

If the Fed were to do QE4 they'd only be making inevitable crash even worse.

 

[OddTrader]

I have had this with me for some time. It only looks back to the previous two bear markets. Nonetheless, might help someone make a sense of things. Of course it goes without saying that we're looking at the past and it doesn't mean the future is exactly going to behave similarly.

Gringo

Nice chart analysis!

BTW, what's the bubble name in your mind for this upcoming bottom potentially? Recession?

 

[Pricechange]

Could be that the fed has been front running the S&P 500 in terms of wave theory. Regardless, as we move forward in the above chart, it looks as though QE will be the inevitable tool they use until 1) a massive recovery with good jobs and pay happens or 2) the market collapses or 3) the USD collapses

 

[Sotnis]

$SPY Wow I wouldn't be surprised if shanghai breaks support tomorrow then takes another nosedive, Tuesday setting up for another bloodbath.