One of the reasonable possibilities. And if that is actually the case, the market is not bearish... yet.
Start Of A Bear Market? Inquiring minds want to know...
- Thread starter Scataphagos
- Start date
One of the reasonable possibilities. And if that is actually the case, the market is not bearish... yet.
All it takes is a VIX spike and some option knowledge to profit from this high probability, the call is good until December 31st.
I think we need way more bagholders and sheep at the retail level holding long before we ever see anything more than repricing of well publicized current events. Not nearly enough retail involved since the 666 bottom. This could be a positioning of a much longer term bull trap...bring it down, gets some attention from the sheep, V it right back up again in the face of a few small hikes (remember how they ran it upward "after" Greenspan hiked in the last year of Bush HW into Clinton first years) and push higher into Christmas/Spring. Then you would have a great setup for a large retail entering and then another harvest of the 2000 kind (remember, Tech and Biotech are the saviors of the millennial generation)....for a good bear market you want large participation from a generation that did not experience/remember the last one of its type and character. Hell, they have not even IPOed Uber and Airbnb yet!
Last edited:
Along with the 2000 Microstrategy miss was Cisco Chambers saying "no visibility" as guidance to rock the markets. Look at semiconductor, biotech and internet stocks sector charts from year 2000. The three rolled over from stratospheric heights at different times.
No doubt the commodity/emerging markets space is leading the way down This time. Brazil is looking particularly bad here. South Korea, Taiwan and other techies are in nasty bear markets.
I will be studying up on the 1997 asain crisis to model what i expect if this continues.
Interesting to see if US data can stay on this tightrope of "mediocre" insulated from the pain other countries are presently experiencing.
90% emerging market bear market lows. holy shit.!
No doubt the commodity/emerging markets space is leading the way down This time. Brazil is looking particularly bad here. South Korea, Taiwan and other techies are in nasty bear markets.
I will be studying up on the 1997 asain crisis to model what i expect if this continues.
Interesting to see if US data can stay on this tightrope of "mediocre" insulated from the pain other countries are presently experiencing.
90% emerging market bear market lows. holy shit.!
When the market is in a large(?) trading range, it "behaves" like a mini-bear on the declines, and a mini-bull on the advances... back and forth across the price range.
One of the reasonable possibilities at this time is that the market is trading in a range between recent highs and the Oct 2014 (and last week's), possible "matched low". A trader should "buy the bottom of the range and sell/short the top of the range." But that's just "trading the range noise"... not the same as being bearish.
Last edited:
Besides the tendency of certain markets to make big lows around -90% from highs... similar occurs in many individual stocks. Interesting to note that at -90%, stocks often have a huge volume spike. Seems that's the point (a) die-hard longs, regardless of where in the decline they bought, "can't take it any more" and do a panic dump, and (b) value buyers/bargain hunters step in.
Hard to believe? Just check some historical data.
Last edited:
" I will be studying up on the 1997 asain crisis to model what i expect if this continues.
Interesting to see if US data can stay on this tightrope of "mediocre" insulated from the pain other countries are presently experiencing."
I was thinking the same thing. That nasty 1997 Asian crisis was really just a great buying opportunity here in the US. Same with the 1998 Russian financial crisis. There was, at that time, still a lot of upward movement yet to come.
Interesting to see if US data can stay on this tightrope of "mediocre" insulated from the pain other countries are presently experiencing."
I was thinking the same thing. That nasty 1997 Asian crisis was really just a great buying opportunity here in the US. Same with the 1998 Russian financial crisis. There was, at that time, still a lot of upward movement yet to come.
EWZ (Brazil) below 19 for long term investment, you can thank me later.
I have had this with me for some time. It only looks back to the previous two bear markets. Nonetheless, might help someone make a sense of things. Of course it goes without saying that we're looking at the past and it doesn't mean the future is exactly going to behave similarly.
Gringo
Gringo
