Stages of a Trader

[NoDoji]

So tell me, how would I go about finding out what the conditions of the market will be like before the open (since I trade right at the open)?

Everything I posted about CL and ES earlier was information about the market condition prior to the open. How is that after the fact? Is half of ET from some planet where you're unable to see several hours of price action leading up to the market open?

All you can know with certainty is the market condition leading up to the hard right edge of the moment you're ready to begin your trading session.

Are you asking how you would go about finding out what the market conditions will be in advance of the price action actually unfolding? How the heck would anyone know that???

You look at the conditions leading up to the moment you're ready to begin your trading session and there are either reasons to look for a long entry, a short entry, or to wait for one side or the other to assert itself.

At the open in both CL and ES (and NQ), the conditions told you that the bulls are in control. They're making money, they have the psychological capital that comes with being on the winning side, and us small retail traders would do well to join them.

If you don't know how to join them with an appropriate risk:reward plan, then db's threads/chat will be very helpful.

 

[feng456]

Everything I posted about CL and ES earlier was information about the market condition prior to the open. How is that after the fact? Is half of ET from some planet where you're unable to see several hours of price action leading up to the market open?

All you can know with certainty is the market condition leading up to the hard right edge of the moment you're ready to begin your trading session.

Are you asking how you would go about finding out what the market conditions will be in advance of the price action actually unfolding? How the heck would anyone know that???

You look at the conditions leading up to the moment you're ready to begin your trading session and there are either reasons to look for a long entry, a short entry, or to wait for one side or the other to assert itself.

At the open in both CL and ES (and NQ), the conditions told you that the bulls are in control. They're making money, they have the psychological capital that comes with being on the winning side, and us small retail traders would do well to join them.

If you don't know how to join them with an appropriate risk:reward plan, then db's threads/chat will be very helpful.

I think I understand what you are saying. Unfortunately that may not be able to help my setup.

RE: pre-open conditions, it's different knowing the outcome and looking for an explanation before hand, than having the various explanations and looking for an outcome.

 

[dbphoenix]

Minimum 10 character limit for making a post. The original post "ES" was not accepted for submission as it was below that threshold.

Then I suggest you find something else, like periods.

Here's a post and chart from someone who was in chat today from the beginning: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3938250&postcount=20

If all these people, including me, are lying, then perhaps chat wouldn't do you any good anyway since it's all a conspiracy. However, you are nonetheless welcome to the "room". I will probably be there shortly after 0900 to go over the "condition" of the market.

And, by the way, it doesn't cost anything.

 

[NoDoji]

I think I understand what you are saying. Unfortunately that may not be able to help my setup.

RE: pre-open conditions, it's different knowing the outcome and looking for an explanation before hand, than having the various explanations and looking for an outcome.

Yes, it's very uncomfortable at the right edge because we have explanations of what's happened up to that point, but we have no idea if it will continue or reverse or chop around (consolidate).

I have a plan that's been tested thoroughly, so I do know that if there's reason to join a winning side (such as airspace to the next key S/R level in line to be tested), then I will join it if there's price action behavior that fits my plan for entry.

With CL at the open indicating strength to the upside, I watch a short bar interval chart (1-min) for a pullback and I buy during the pullback if conditions match the requirements of my plan. This morning conditions met the requirements of my plan at the close of the 9:09 ET bar and there was plenty of airspace from my entry price signal to the 98.70 high that printed during the opening price action. There you go, odds in my favor (I'm joining the strong team) and a reasonable 2x risk profit opportunity.

I don't have to know what's going to happen next because everything important is lined up in my favor.

 

[dbphoenix]

I have a plan that's been tested thoroughly, so I do know that if there's reason to join a winning side (such as airspace to the next key S/R level in line to be tested), then I will join it if there's price action behavior that fits my plan for entry.

Speaking of airspace -- or air pockets -- for the benefit of those who might come across this in future, the top of the air pocket in the NQ was/is at 97. Today's high was 99.

But it's all coincidence, right?

 

[NoDoji]

With CL at the open indicating strength to the upside, I watch a short bar interval chart (1-min) for a pullback and I buy during the pullback if conditions match the requirements of my plan. This morning conditions met the requirements of my plan at the close of the 9:09 ET bar and there was plenty of airspace from my entry price signal to the 98.70 high that printed during the opening price action.

By the way, I illustrated this concept and a nearly identical version of this setup just over a week ago here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=281746

Take a look at the second chart to see the "pattern" I traded this morning.

I recommended people print these "hard right edge" screen shots and learn from them. It took a few days for the haters to step in with force, but anyone who studied my charts carefully ended up with a nice quality pick and shovel with which to mine some gold.

 

[kut2k2]

Define "now"?

I meant how is your system working currently (in general terms, not today's conditions).

It sounds like your (anti-trend?) system just isn't emulating the mkt's current conditions well. Are you trading EOD or intraday? Makes a big difference if you want to trade right from the next open.

 

[feng456]

I meant how is your system working currently (in general terms, not today's conditions).

It sounds like your (anti-trend?) system just isn't emulating the mkt's current conditions well. Are you trading EOD or intraday? Makes a big difference if you want to trade right from the next open.

Jan was about 4 point loss.

2013 was a bad year.

2012 was a great year.

It's not anti trend. It just doesn't work well in big trending days. I get steam rolled.

 

[dbphoenix]

By the way, I illustrated this concept and a nearly identical version of this setup just over a week ago here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=281746

Take a look at the second chart to see the "pattern" I traded this morning.

I recommended people print these "hard right edge" screen shots and learn from them. It took a few days for the haters to step in with force, but anyone who studied my charts carefully ended up with a nice quality pick and shovel with which to mine some gold.

I don't know that "haters" is the right word. If I'd been struggling/failing for three or five or eight years, I'd be pretty testy myself. This doesn't mean that one must be a doormat. But that sort of thing isn't fixed by arguing.

I started this thread so that those who are having "issues" might (a) recognize themselves and (b) at least consider the possibility that there was a way to become unstuck. I did not start it to advertise trading price. If one wants to trade MACD, fine. But he still has to do the research, the testing, develop the plan, trade it, test it again, trade it again and so on. If he's not doing that but rather sitting in a corner and obsessing over how unfair it all is, then neither this thread nor any other is going to be of much help. There are those after all who want to lose and therefore win by losing.

Edit: BTW, you did manage to put some good stuff out there before things went south. And I do notice more people focusing on price rather than "feelings". And you seem to be a pay-it-forward type anyway. So it's all good.

 

[NoDoji]

I started this thread so that those who are having "issues" might (a) recognize themselves and (b) at least consider the possibility that there was a way to become unstuck. I did not start it to advertise trading price. If one wants to trade MACD, fine. But he still has to do the research, the testing, develop the plan, trade it, test it again, trade it again and so on. If he's not doing that but rather sitting in a corner and obsessing over how unfair it all is, then neither this thread nor any other is going to be of much help.

As a beginner I kept a journal here for a couple years and posted many, many charts of my trades back when I traded stocks using stochastics on a 3-min chart. When I traded my simple plan based on that I did very well. But when I got overconfident and careless with my risk management, I really screwed things up.