The condition of the market at any given point in time is the one thing we can always know for certain. Based on that condition, a trading plan tells us what to do.
Stages of a Trader
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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The condition of the market at any given point in time is the one thing we can always know for certain. Based on that condition, a trading plan tells us what to do.
Really. You knew before market open today that it was going to be a big move up trending day?
True. This morning, for example, before the NY open, I pointed out the upsloping trendline in the NQ that began yesterday and suggested that people wait for 92. If I hadn't assessed the condition of the market, I may even have traded short.
You are going to have to provide a link to that because I don't see it in your post history from this morning.
A mind set is static
A bias is static
A trading plan is static
Mkt doesn’t know static from shit
Either we become flexible (with our thinking / actions) – OR – find a condition where our static plan stands a half ass chance of working – OR – die (adapt or die)
And I’ll be go to hell if I’m going to argue with someone over their success
cheerios
RN
A bias is static
A trading plan is static
Mkt doesn’t know static from shit
Either we become flexible (with our thinking / actions) – OR – find a condition where our static plan stands a half ass chance of working – OR – die (adapt or die)
And I’ll be go to hell if I’m going to argue with someone over their success
cheerios
RN
In crude oil (my main market) I knew the conditions before the open were as follows (all this is advance knowledge, no hindsight involved in assessing the market condition at any point in time):
a) rising lower trend line from the overnight session
b) followed by a steeper adjusted rising trendline in pre-market
c) powerful symmetrical triangle breakout to the upside
d) deep retracement to test the adjusted lower trend line
e) second test of the LTL and a 1-2-3 upside turn off that test a few minutes before the NYMEX pit open.
f) a parallel channel line to the adjusted LTL placed across the 7:10 ET breakout high takes price to just under 98.70 just as the pit opens.
If you're not already long at this point, is there any reason whatsoever to consider a short trade at the pit open (9:00am ET)?
It was posted in chat. But the point is that it is wise to know the condition of the market before considering a trade, i.e.,
1. What is the trend of the market?
2. What is your position in that trend?
3. Where can you enter in order to profit from the prevailing trend?
None of which may be pertinent to you. You say you are good at execution. That's great. Many people aren't. But if your trading plan is not consistently profitable, then it really doesn't matter how good you are at executing it.
If you want to know just what the problem is with your trading plan, you're going to have to provide it. The guessing thing can go only so far before those who participate become frustrated.
So, it's up to you whether this continues or not. If it doesn't, I wish you the best of luck.
Edit: FWIW, here's a chart from someone who wasn't even there when I made the comment about 92, but he knows the drill: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3938127&postcount=1154
Now I'm looking at ES at the hard right edge before the open and I see that there's a rising LTL and a descending UTL forming a wide symmetrical triangle.
Price breaks out to the upside at the open and pulls back, but not even far enough to test the descending UTL before turning back up.
Right then and there the condition is indicating an upside bias. There's no way to know whether that will become a trend or simply an upside move followed by chop, but I'm only looking for long trades until the PA tells me otherwise.
Price breaks out to the upside at the open and pulls back, but not even far enough to test the descending UTL before turning back up.
Right then and there the condition is indicating an upside bias. There's no way to know whether that will become a trend or simply an upside move followed by chop, but I'm only looking for long trades until the PA tells me otherwise.
Stop it, ND. You're making me hot
I think that's one of the Stages of a Trader, no?
(While everyone sweats over my favorite trader porn chart, I'm going for a run...)
