Square Root price tragets for the next S&P top
- Thread starter Bakinec
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Quote from Gubinec:
I recently came across the Square Root Theory while reading up stuff on Gann.
Why should the market care where a square root is? Honestly, picking fib or elliott waves or square roots is not much different than reading tea leaves. Without a compelling explanation, pet theories should be considered suspicious,
Now an end of month or seasonal effect, which migh relate to a fundamental event like payrolls or something else, at least there is some reason to consider it. But square roots? Really?
They projected the S&P lows and highs for 2005 using the Square Root method which turned out to be pretty correct.
Convincing proof? And you know that 2 data points is completely irrelevant or statistically insignificant? After all, how did they do from 1900 until 2004, and from 2006 until this year?
I recently came across the Square Root Theory while reading up stuff on Gann.
Why should the market care where a square root is? Honestly, picking fib or elliott waves or square roots is not much different than reading tea leaves. Without a compelling explanation, pet theories should be considered suspicious,
Now an end of month or seasonal effect, which migh relate to a fundamental event like payrolls or something else, at least there is some reason to consider it. But square roots? Really?
They projected the S&P lows and highs for 2005 using the Square Root method which turned out to be pretty correct.
Convincing proof? And you know that 2 data points is completely irrelevant or statistically insignificant? After all, how did they do from 1900 until 2004, and from 2006 until this year?
Honestly, the Gub is in the phase that we've all been in as young and aspriring traders. It's obvious from his posts that he's searching for methods and systems. We have all been there, it's just part of the cycle.
As far as Gann goes, it's mostly garbage. Gann was a better marketer than trader, think about it. If he wasn't, why the hell would we still be talking about some ugly, old man decades after his death?
The square root theory is not witchcraft, and was one of Sir John Timpleton's investing principles. Timpleton was no Gann, he actually had a rich academic background (Yale then Oxford), and was one of the most successful large-scale money managers of all time. Gann just took the theory and made it seem creepy and mysterious, like he did with most things (once again, he was a fine marketer).
The Gub isn't pounding the table on Fibonacci spirals, Uranus aspect trading, or Koala bear gestation cycle trading...so I'd say he's doing alright. Let him learn the ropes and develop as a trader. He's already shown a keen interest and some initiative which is alot more than most ET pos(t)ers. Cut the guy a little slack.
Thanks for having my back, circadian!! You're the man!
Yes, I've actually came across articles that said that Gann spent more time marketing than actually trading his methods!
Reading an article in which he was interviewed by Wyckoff, the way in which he described a lot of his methods seemed eerily similar to the way modern new-age "spiritual gurus" try to lure others into paying for their "the secret" books, seminars and courses. Vibrations, "the law", all sound like words that come out of modern-day spiritual gurus.
Either way, I'm not lazy to experiment and see what I can find, as you said.
If Templeton believed in it and was one of the best, then it doesn't hurt to try to see what it is all about!
My post wasn't about selling or proving anything anyway, I just shared what I found to be interesting, like the volume cycle I made a thread on.
I should actually mention, that it's a good thing that someone like TZ comes along and challenges a "finding". That's the whole point of sharing and working things out