Quote from bi9foot:
At anytime during the 9:45 bar, did you consider the bar to have possibly given you the point 3 (snip from Gooch's chart) before you saw the pennant form on the next couple of bars?
No. I never considered the the Price movement to have created a Point Three Channel until after the Pennant had formed. I viewed the whole thing as one long tape. Although tapes can turn into a channel (we occasionally see tapes 'rocket' off for numerous bars in one direction creating a very wide 'tape' which we then consider wide enough for a channel), I couldn't create a channel out of three bars, and as such, I looked at the environment as only a 'tape.' As a didn't feel the 'tape' had 'widened out' enough to exceed 'threshold' for me to consider it a full channel, I knew "what must come next" had to show movement from Point Two to Point Three - either by a retrace or a Left to Right Traverse forming in order to create a Point Three down channel.
After looking at gooch87's chart, I do see Price make an attempt to head higher (by a tic or so it appears), but mentally, this action, in this specific example, wasn't enough for my mental pathways to think, "channel here."
Having said all that, I do see how someone could have viewed the entire event as having already formed a Point Three Down Channel. Doing so certainly shouldn't be viewed as incorrect or wrong by any stretch of the imagination. Once again, we see how two different paths lead to the same place. The bottom line with all of this is - whether by trading the tape, or by trading your view of a Point Three Channel, both views have one short.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader