Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[cnms2]

Increasing volume: continuation.
Pt 2 to Pt 3 retrace happens on decreasing volume.
Pt3 on your trading fractal should be on low volume.

Quote from Failure2Travers:

It appeared as the Dow began to shift in volume towards a down channel. Why was I incorrect in predicting this increasing red bar as a down channel PT. 3

 

[callmate]

I've been simtrading today using 12 contracts and scaling out at
1 point, 1.25 and 1.50.
These are my results for 8 trades.

 

[ang_99]

Quote from callmate:

I've been simtrading today using 12 contracts and scaling out at
1 point, 1.25 and 1.50.
These are my results for 8 trades.

do you have the time stamps?

 

[nkhoi]

 

[guavaman]

14:20 on has been untradable to me

 

[callmate]

ang_99

I closed my bracket trader earlier and lost the trade times
but I think I can go into my excel sheet and see if I can dig the times out and mark them on the chart. If it proves to be too much work, I will leave it however, I will do my best and post my trade times tomorrow.
Tums, I hear what you are saying

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from FerdinandAlx:

Any ideas on how I could have distinguished the FTT @ 13:55 from a flaw? It seemed alot like a flaw to me untill price started to move against me on the 13:10 bar. What did I miss?

FAlx,

I think that the 12:55-13:00 ES bar was a tape FTT. Additionally the 12:58-13:00/13:00-02 YM doublet was a "double bottom" FTT. The 12:40-45 ES bar was the initial bar of a lateral which from its "price flow" would have suggested an "in @ the top/out @ the bottom" continuation but this was voided by the FTT. Quite probably there are other ways to look at this.

lj

 

[Spydertrader]

Today's (12-13-2007) ES Chart

- Spydertrader

 

[FerdinandAlx]

Quote from ljyoung:

FAlx,

I think that the 12:55-13:00 ES bar was a tape FTT. Additionally the 12:58-13:00/13:00-02 YM doublet was a "double bottom" FTT. The 12:40-45 ES bar was the initial bar of a lateral which from its "price flow" would have suggested an "in @ the top/out @ the bottom" continuation but this was voided by the FTT. Quite probably there are other ways to look at this.

lj

Yes, it turns out it was part of a lateral formation. The move suprised me at first because I didn't see a wall in the DOM or any other indication that price would reverse. I get it now.

Chart for today:

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ljyoung:

1. On rollover day, is it useful to carry over the appropriate channels from the prior day (YM/ES08) given the poor volume?

A trader may or may not find Carryover Channels useful depending on the current day Price Action. Should a Point Three form within the first several bars of the trading day, one could then eliminate the Carryover Channel. As such, neither contract change, nor specific day of the week plays as important a role than current day Price and Volume.

Quote from ljyoung:

2. There is still substantial volume associated with the YM/ESZ7 contracts this AM. No doubt this will continue to decrease as expiration day approaches (it's already decreasing today). Any advantage to using one or the other contract in this "rollover period"? Is it simply best to use the one with the greatest liquidity?

"Rollover Day" exists for a reason - to remind the trader of upcoming contract expiration. Better to spend one's time focusing on what matters - differentiating between continuation and change - rather than, having concerns over which contract to trade. Roll to the next contract on "Rollover Day" and be done with it until three months from now.

Quote from ljyoung:

3. If one compares the two contracts, it's interesting [interesting = I don't know WTF is going on] to observe subtle differences in bar morphology and volume. Any thoughts on this?

Nope. No thoughts at all on this.

Quote from ljyoung:

4. When doing a STR/SQU setup, especially on a day like today, is it useful to look to a "ranging" period in the YM (like this AM's 9:40-44 or 9:52-56) as an area of calm? The first of these would seem to be better than the second because of lower price volatility but "volume profile" considerations may also be important.

"Period of Calm" means a moment or two when things aren't jumping all around. Such an environment can materialize at any time. Any Pennant or Forming Pennant should also do the trick.

- Spydertrader