Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from ljyoung:

Avi 8, what you say in the text about P1 to P2 movement does not match what you have annotated nor does it match what has been said previously...
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Great job, I didn't proofread very well. I meant to say:

In a channel we go from pt1 to pt2, which is shown as lower RIGHT to upper LEFT as we BO of the old channel's RTL (for an up channel or long), the opposite occurs in a down channel (upper RIGHT to lower LEFT ).

Sorry for the confusion, but I see it sparked some great comments.
 
Quote from Jander:

Does anyone have a link to or a copy of seamless continuous.doc?

This may not be the exact filename
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Maybe this can help.

edit: It is failing to open when I checked it. I will try again.


Looks like your link is working fine to the document Jander.
 
This is a snippet from today's YM. I am curious as to how you would annotate the channels.

I have done it two ways:
- first one is a fanned channel since the BO was not on increasing volume and the next bar seems to touch the original channel (creating a FBO)
- second one is an up channel off the FTT of the pink channel

EDIT: One might give a better read of the future direction than the other. The first one will give a better entry for a future down move while both will give the same entry for a future long move.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1705495">
 

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Quote from cnms2:

My interpretation is that the asymmetrical relationship between price and volume is the effect of the channel slope. You can notice gaussian peaks on both trendlines of a lateral channel. As the the slope becomes non-zero, one of the peaks gains in amplitude, while the other one decreases.

What we see on the chart is the effect of the superposition of several fractals of sentiment, from which usually only a couple are relevant.

When you look at the price movement in real-time you notice periods of acceleration which coincide with peaks of volume and of deceleration which coincide with low activity levels.

In the proximity of both trendlines there is a short period of activity reduction (low volume), causing a price movement pause. It is just easier to notice it by the right trendline, because of the overall lower pace there. This is the signal of change in sentiment and in price direction.
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Regarding the lateral channel, I almost made mention of that because it seems like an idealized example, like the first graphic. But in some of the slaloming discussions there is reference to price peaking on the volume pulse (at the LTL), and returning to DU on the RTL. This was when it was testing support or resistance.

My thoughts on the cycle is getting a volume pulse on the move from pt 1 to 2, with a pause or lower volume at around the pt2 (or FTT), and a weaker pulse on the move to point 3.

You would see the volume cycle more on the smaller fractal. For example if you compared todays 5m price chart with the 1m volume chart.

There was also mention in one thread of nesting the Jokari window in each quadrant of the Jokari window to get a 16 cell matrix - to show the fractal nature.

Thanks for the comments.

Lj - On your pic the #3 arrow you have is a pt2 for price, only a half cycle. I don't think that could be interpreted as a full cycle.

On pages 99 and 100 of BMBW pdf, the scoring variables show 1:2 ratio, and the scoring on a sine wave there is a great example. Maybe I should have posted that one.

Regards - EZ
 
Lj - On your pic the #3 arrow you have is a pt2 for price, only a half cycle. I don't think that could be interpreted as a full cycle.


Don't agree with you EZ. You can draw a channel where #3 is a point 3. I think it (the Jokari Window) is more complicated both than what I had originally thought and than what you are asserting here. The slope of the channel is important as is the phasing of volume with price and there are restrictions on the angle of the price vector (0 to 90 for an uptrend and 0 to -90 for a downtrend, if you will). However it's too damn late for me to think right now and as well I've been bashing my brains out setting up the STR/SQU, OTR and other stuff on QT having just acquired a futures feed. Will talk in the AM.

Best,

lj
 
Quote from bi9foot:

This is a snippet from today's YM.

EDIT: One might give a better read of the future direction than the other. The first one will give a better entry for a future down move while both will give the same entry for a future long move.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1705495">
More...


Looking at the bigger picture on volume, I see there is increasing black and decreasing red.
So I look for a continuation here and annotate on the side of a return to the up channel.
I annotate for the earliest signal for continuation.
Keeping aware the entire time an r2r could appear here ( forest level ), I still look for continuation unless signals are clear for change on the bigger picture.

Just the way I view things, not to say what I see is correct.
 

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