Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from ericta:

Hi Spyder,

Why is this a FBO?
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Notice that FBO is colored orange, there was an FTT of the orange channel and price headed toward the RTL but resumed downward before breaking out of the channel
 
Quote from Atari:

Hello all,

Today was my first day annotating the ES and I thought I would post my chart for any comments.
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Good job, wonderful chart. I advice you to draw gaussian lines as they will allow you to compare your volume analysis with the analysis of others in this journal.
 
Thank you Spyder for your succinct and useful response to my question. FWIW, everything I've learned about being succinct I've learned from Jack (ho, ho).

lj
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

November Follow-Up (If1-If2)

I have hesitated discussing the IF1-IF2 Logic until this point in the Journal for one very important reason. The reason for my hesitation stems from the fact that using IF1-IF2 incorrectly, places the trader immediately on the wrong side of the market. In other words, applying IF1-IF2 to areas for which it was never intended makes no sense at best. And at worst, creates additional problems for which the trader doesn't have a viable solution.

How can one use If1-If2 incorrectly? By relying on it to provide a signal when other tools should have already provided the signal for you. If1-If2 is used as a safety net, a last ditch effort (if you will), and only in such an environment, then the likelihood of incorrectly using the logic for signal generation reduces significantly.

I have never used the If1-If2 logic in conjunction with an entry. The signal for determining an incorrect entry comes much sooner than any signal provided by If1-If2. The same holds true for reversals, incorrectly applying If1-If2 logic at reversal points (especially during times of 'choppy' Price action) almost assures the trader ends up whipsawing themselves right out of the market.

However, one area where one can safely use If1-If2 does exist, and I have often used the logic here - even when I either miss a better signal, or fine level tools appear to not provide the clarity I feel is needed. This area is the Outside Bar.

Now, If1-If2 isn't designed to instantaneously turn a trade (or a trader) from losing into profitable. Use of the If1-If2 logic allows the trader to get back on the right side of the market - period. Nothing more; nothing less. More often than not, placing yourself back on the right side of the market provides the trader the opportunity to recoup the losses generated from the time where their trade placed them on the wrong side of the market. However, this is not always the case. Remember, If1-If2 provides opportunity. One still needs to continue to monitor the market signals as time passes - before, during and after executing the If1-If2 trade.

One should only ever need to execute the If1-If2 logic once per bar - with rare exceptions (such as FOMC Announcements or other News Release reaction bars). Fortunately, the market provided one of those rare exceptions today - at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. In the very rare event one does need to execute If1-If2 more than once per bar, do not allow your brain to 'calculate' how many points you have earned or lost performing the trade. Remember, If1-If2 puts you back on the right side of the market when you have missed something that would have signaled change much earlier.

As a drill, try using this logic on every bar in an effort to reinforce the importance of correctly using the logic as described in previous posts (See Oddiduro's descriptions).

I hope everyone finds the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
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In this post from Hershey, he seems to convey that IF1/IF2 and APA is a complete strategy. In fact in the attached document, he goes through an entire day showing the various signals produced through the whole day using nothing other than IF1/IF2 & APA to achieve SCT. Are you now modifying that assertion because it has subsequently been shown that IF1/IF2 and APA as a standalone strategy has been proven a loser as was the the 30 minute bar breakout as tested by Roughtrader ?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=353304

Doesn't your restatement of Hershey's methods with new caveats seem to be a form of "curve fitting" ?
 
Quote from FerdinandAlx:

I advice you to draw gaussian lines as they will allow you to compare your volume analysis with the analysis of others in this journal.
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Thanks for the feedback FerdinandAlx. I'm going to try to annotate my gaussian analysis as my speed improves or when I have time after market hours. Right now, I'm trading the equities method while annotating ES during the day. Doing my equities homework and trying to catch up with this journal occupies most of my evenings - there just aren't enough hours in the day :D.

-A
 
Quote from ^^^^^^:

Doesn't your restatement of Hershey's methods with new caveats seem to be a form of "curve fitting" ?
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Chicken Little, I have neither restated, nor disproved the assertions of anyone. I have simply pointed out the dangers of incorrectly using a tool in areas unintended. In other words, for people like yourself who intentionally misrepresent posts to serve their own agendas, I didn't want such foolishness to cause people to apply answers to questions not asked. IF1-IF2 represents an excellent way to know when one missed a market signal of some sort.

Seriously, find another hobby dude, or at least, seek psychological assistance. We all get it. You can't do it, so anybody claims they can must be full of shit.

I don't really care if you get it or not.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Chicken Little, I have neither restated, nor disproved the assertions of anyone. I have simply pointed out the dangers of incorrectly using a tool in areas unintended. In other words, for people like yourself who intentionally misrepresent posts to serve their own agendas, I didn't want such foolishness to cause people to apply answers to questions not asked. IF1-IF2 represents an excellent way to know when one missed a market signal of some sort.

Seriously, find another hobby dude, or at least, seek psychological assistance. We all get it. You can't do it, so anybody claims they can must be full of shit.

I don't really care if you get it or not.

- Spydertrader
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Why does Hershey say one thing and you say something contradictory ? Where did Hershey say the "tool" was unintended to be used as such? Are you making this this stuff up on your own ?
 
Quote from ^^^^^^:

Are you making this this stuff up on your own ?
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Dude, what rock have you been living under for the last 11 months? Jack discussed Rockets, Icebergs and Slaloming. Do you see those things here? Jack posted on the MACD and The Stochastic Indicator. Do we discuss those things in this thread? If you want to argue with Jack Hershey, go find Jack Hershey.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Jander:

Notice that FBO is colored orange, there was an FTT of the orange channel and price headed toward the RTL but resumed downward before breaking out of the channel
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oh. right... missed that. Thank you Jander.

I just wonder why spyder didn't have a p3 up channel ( see green arrowed channel, dark red )? is the decreasing volume so obvious that he Knew it's going to be a short term retrace and didn't even bother to draw a channel?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1704101
 
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