Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from dkm:

The highlighted bar (10:05) shows decr red vol and lower price so we expect change i.e. price up. Price on bar 10:10 does indeed go up, as anticipated, confirming change. The 10:15 bar continues up, with a close more lateral than up, and decr vol ,so one might then expect change. The 10:20 bar however continues up, on increasing vol, not as expected in terms of the Jokari window. With price up and increasing vol, I would expect the next bar to be up. However, on the 10:25 bar we have lower price on incr red vol, not as expected, so this must be change. I am now anticipating price to head lower on the next bar. However, the 10:30 bar gives us higher price on increasing vol, not as anticipated with the Jokari window, so change again.

The Jokari window appears to fail several times. Is my interpretation of the Jokari window incorrect or are we actually seeing it fail? Is this just another way of saying "we didn't see what we were expecting therefore we have change"?
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Your interpretation of the Jokari window is correct, although you should take into account the two resolution levels at which we can apply it in your example. Doing bar to bar analysis on the tree level we can indeed see increasing volume and increasing price and would therefore expect price to go up. If we look at it from the resolution at which you drew your gaussians we see decreasing volume and increasing price and we expect price to go down.

What happend here is that price is in a non-dominant or retrace from 10:05-10:20 as indicated by your gaussian. The decreasing volume on the highlighted bar already provided a clue that a retrace might be next. Price then proceeds it's course in the dominant direction on higher volume on the 10:25 bar. This is what we expected price to do if we apply the Jokari window to your gaussians.

The interesting thing here is that the 10:25 bar (the bar you labeled p3) is a FTT. If we look at the two preceding bars (10:15 and 10:20) at the (finer) tree resolution we can indeed distinguish a situation where price does something unexpected according to the Jokari window. I'd say that it's quite fitting that the bar where price did something unexpected is also the bar where price fails to traverse :)

I'm not sure if FTT's are often preceded by a situation such as this but I'll make a mental note to be on the look out when encouter it. There's a possiblility that we've found a good indicator for an upcoming FTT.
 
Jack mentions a couple of times when he gets a couple of bars where volume is well into extreme he tends to consider them as equal. Not sure if this helps with the evaluation currently under discussion

Cheers..l
 
Hello,

I have seen these this kind of discussions a number of times.

The whole point is in my opinion that many aspects of this method are very subjective. (can be interpreted in different ways). Then afterwards it's easy to pick out the right one.

It's not black/white and it's not science and it comes down to instincts which were formed while building up experience and skills. It doesn't make the method less valuable but it makes it hard to grasp.

No matter how crystal clear it is to you what price will do next. It is never 100% sure simply because it is never sure what people will do. How can you know what people will do? How can you know that price will resume after a BO? You don't.

All it takes is many people (or a few with some money) doing the opposite of what you thought that would happen. Simple.

Of course something "not happening" or something "unexpected happening" offers new opportunities if you are able to recognise this and if you're quick. In fact. this is one of the cornerstones of the method.

Just my opinion. It doesn't contradict with what Spyder is teaching us.

regards,
Ivo




Quote from BlowFish:

Jack mentions a couple of times when he gets a couple of bars where volume is well into extreme he tends to consider them as equal. Not sure if this helps with the evaluation currently under discussion

Cheers..l
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Quote from Spydertrader:

Do you mean things such as, how Price acts around a 20 SMA or the fact that one should know where they are with respect to the 'right side' of the market? For instance, Price has just moved from a Point One and through a Point Two, so what must come next is a Point Three.

- Spydertrader
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In each of the point 3's I listed above I am aware of the 20 SMA and believe I am on the right side of the market. My point 1 and 2 are established so now I am just looking for my new point 3.

Just annotating at present however if I were looking for entry signals off of a new point 3, I am just looking to identify that as soon as possible.

When I see the low volume I am not confident that this is the exact bar to label as a point 3.
 
Quote from dkm:

The Jokari window appears to fail several times. Is my interpretation of the Jokari window incorrect or are we actually seeing it fail? Is this just another way of saying "we didn't see what we were expecting therefore we have change"?
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For now, stick with the Dominant Traverses and apply the Jokari Window. Non-Dominant traverse represent a different context. As such, we want to handle them differently. Again, how does the example yesterday (where we 'see' the Jokari Window [when applied to a Dominant Traverse] work exactly as anticipated) differ from an environment where we appear to 'see' the Jokari Window fail when applied to a Dominant Traverse.

Differences do exist between the two examples described above.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from ivob:

The whole point is in my opinion that many aspects of this method are very subjective. (can be interpreted in different ways). Then afterwards it's easy to pick out the right one.
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The above does not fall under the definition of subjective. The above simply means you haven't learned to differentiate in real time. A world of difference exists between what skills you posses now compared to what abilities you'll have in the future. However, nothing changed in the interim between now and some point in the future, except for the trader.

This system provides binary solutions which must fall into sequences according to certain contexts. Change the context, and the sequences required also change. As such, your interpretation of the world comes from your mental filter as you asses data from your current vantage point. Add in a few 'aha! moments' along the way, and the same data, the same posts, the same instructions, somehow appear 'changed' from when one first interpreted the data.

Proof of this occurs quite frequently within this thread. One need look no further than the numerous posts which have indicated an altered perception upon additional reviews of old threads and posts. Where one interpretation existed the first time through, now (after adding to the skill set) a second, more accurate, perception exists - some times 'augmented' other times simply 'altered' - from what one 'believed' before.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from ivob:

Hello,

What kind of change is the top of the 10:00 bar? (10:05)?

at 10:05 price does not try to reach LTL (it open at the high and only goes down).

is 10:05 a LTL bounce?

regards,
Ivo
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Hi ivob,
Since it was decreasing red I treated the 10:05 bar as a retrace anticipating point 3 to come next. It was also an FTP but I did not recognize it at the time.
It may have had some kind of harmonic characteristic too, but I have not studied those yet, so I'm not sure.

good trading to you
 
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