Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Spydertrader]

Quote from BlowFish:

Can you remind me of the drill you talk about (the one from a month or two back) so I can track it down and review it? Is it simply waiting for bar close to act?

More like waiting for the bar to close in order to make a decision. Send callmate a PM. She might have the link. I know she did the drill quite often, and found it useful.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ljyoung:

In order for the "FTT bars" NOT to have been FTT's, would their Open have to be < or = Close of prior bar (top figure) and > or = Close of prior bar (bottom figure) with NO price movement above the Open (top figure) or below the Open (bottom figure)?

A more accurate description would be, Price never makes an attempt to head toward the Left Trend Line. For example, a bar opens at its high and heads directly toward the Right Trend Line. Such a bar could not be an FTT. FYI, Jack views FTT's somewhat differently. He requires Price to "retrace back into the channel" before making another attempt at the LTL in order to 'form' an FTT.

- Spydertrader

 

[TraderD72]

Spyder,

I noticied today that a few Points 3's (11:55, 12:40, 1:50) happened on decreased volume.

Besides breaking the "tape" channel and taking out the previous bar high or low is there anything else to help identify and confirm these points when the PRV is low??

Not using YM yet just ES and PRV.

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from Spydertrader:

...

Locate the highlighted bar below on the Jokari Window, and what do we expect to have happen? Then, what does happen? How does this differ from when the Jokari Window appears to fail? What differences exist in such a scenario when compared to what we 'see' here?

- Spydertrader

Hey Spy, I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say here (especially the sentence I have highlighted in red). I am hoping you can clarify what you mean.

The attached image shows where the highlighted bar belongs in the jokari window given the conditions of price heading down and volume decreasing. From the jokari window we expect price to change direction however what actually happens is price continues down. Not knowing what you mean I am unable to continue.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1702711">

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bi9foot:

From the jokari window we expect price to change direction however what actually happens is price continues down.

The next bar after the highlighted bar closes lower than the previous bar? I encourage you to look again.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1702604>

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from Spydertrader:

The next bar after the highlighted bar closes lower than the previous bar? I encourage you to look again.

- Spydertrader

I thought that analysis was only on the highlighted bar. But as you indicated, if we consider the next bar, price heads higher matching the jokari window.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from TraderD72:

Besides breaking the "tape" channel and taking out the previous bar high or low is there anything else to help identify and confirm these points when the PRV is low??

Do you mean things such as, how Price acts around a 20 SMA or the fact that one should know where they are with respect to the 'right side' of the market? For instance, Price has just moved from a Point One and through a Point Two, so what must come next is a Point Three.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bi9foot:

I thought that analysis was only on the highlighted bar. But as you indicated, if we consider the next bar, price heads higher matching the jokari window.

Correct. The Highlighted bar closes. The Jokari window then says to expect the trend to change. In this example, the trend did change as Price moved higher. Now, how does this sequence of events differ from when The Jokari Window appears to fail - meaning everything appears the same but Price closes lower on the next bar. What differences exist?

- Spydertrader

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Correct. The Highlighted bar closes. The Jokari window then says to expect the trend to change. In this example, the trend did change as Price moved higher. Now, how does this sequence of events differ from when The Jokari Window appears to fail - meaning everything appears the same but Price closes lower on the next bar. What differences exist?

- Spydertrader

The Jokari window appears to fail on a non-dominant traverse as price continues its direction towards the RTL on decreasing vol.

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

In this example, the trend did change as Price moved higher. Now, how does this sequence of events differ from when The Jokari Window appears to fail - meaning everything appears the same but Price closes lower on the next bar. What differences exist?

- Spydertrader

The highlighted bar (10:05) shows decr red vol and lower price so we expect change i.e. price up. Price on bar 10:10 does indeed go up, as anticipated, confirming change. The 10:15 bar continues up, with a close more lateral than up, and decr vol ,so one might then expect change. The 10:20 bar however continues up, on increasing vol, not as expected in terms of the Jokari window. With price up and increasing vol, I would expect the next bar to be up. However, on the 10:25 bar we have lower price on incr red vol, not as expected, so this must be change. I am now anticipating price to head lower on the next bar. However, the 10:30 bar gives us higher price on increasing vol, not as anticipated with the Jokari window, so change again.

The Jokari window appears to fail several times. Is my interpretation of the Jokari window incorrect or are we actually seeing it fail? Is this just another way of saying "we didn't see what we were expecting therefore we have change"?