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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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In the attachment I have stacked a pair of snippets from a recent "Why is this an FTT?" discussion. I understand that what was said in way of an explanation has nothing to do with the FTT's having followed a VE. The critical point seems to be the interpretation of price movement intrabar. As an aside, I must say that I am impressed with how such a simple (in the best sense of the word) view of the price movement, very frequently rather accurately represents the "macro" motion of price within the bar.
Question:
In order for the "FTT bars" NOT to have been FTT's, would their Open have to be < or = Close of prior bar (top figure) and > or = Close of prior bar (bottom figure) with NO price movement above the Open (top figure) or below the Open (bottom figure)?
TIA
lj
Note: I am presuming the 1:35 PM bar closes at 1:39:59.999 or so.
Question:
In order for the "FTT bars" NOT to have been FTT's, would their Open have to be < or = Close of prior bar (top figure) and > or = Close of prior bar (bottom figure) with NO price movement above the Open (top figure) or below the Open (bottom figure)?
TIA
lj
Note: I am presuming the 1:35 PM bar closes at 1:39:59.999 or so.
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Very difficult day for me for some reason.
Rough morning. Felt very choppy until around 1pm.
Caught the 150pm point 3 and the FTT after but seemed like it was hard to have any follow through.
Was wondering how you guys viewed today on the difficulty scale??
P.S. i will post my chart later this evening.
Rough morning. Felt very choppy until around 1pm.
Caught the 150pm point 3 and the FTT after but seemed like it was hard to have any follow through.
Was wondering how you guys viewed today on the difficulty scale??
P.S. i will post my chart later this evening.
Regarding today's action, I have noticed lower volume levels and as a result, less price movement per bar. I pulled out Mak's volume vs. volatility chart to remind myself to expect less movement. This has helped me draw 'narrower' channels then I have recently. I notice I'm staying in trades longer but with less resulting price movement.
Why is this? Who cares! But a look over at a daily ES chart shows why: we are in a pt2 to pt3 retrace on the daily.
This means decreasing daily volume which we saw over the last couple days. Also note the FTT on the daily was Nov 27.
Now what volume would you expect to see on that day and its' 5min bars? Compare today's 5min bar volume versus the FTT day's 5min volume bars and their corresponding price bars. Any difference? What about the daily range one can expect?
Why is this? Who cares! But a look over at a daily ES chart shows why: we are in a pt2 to pt3 retrace on the daily.
This means decreasing daily volume which we saw over the last couple days. Also note the FTT on the daily was Nov 27.
Now what volume would you expect to see on that day and its' 5min bars? Compare today's 5min bar volume versus the FTT day's 5min volume bars and their corresponding price bars. Any difference? What about the daily range one can expect?
This is a video of todays price and volume action from 12:45 to 4:05pm.
The video is a tick replay of ES price and volume on the left, and on the right is my annotated chart of the ES.
I did not annotate the replay so you can compare your chart to this time period.
You can control the playback by pausing, and then grab and drag the slider across the time you are interested in reviewing.
Video link : http://www.screencast.com/t/SjZx5cQ0k
Entire video is 3 minutes
The video is a tick replay of ES price and volume on the left, and on the right is my annotated chart of the ES.
I did not annotate the replay so you can compare your chart to this time period.
You can control the playback by pausing, and then grab and drag the slider across the time you are interested in reviewing.
Video link : http://www.screencast.com/t/SjZx5cQ0k
Entire video is 3 minutes
Quote from dkm:
If I had acted on each of these change signals at the close of each bar, the net result would have been a series of losses. Is this a correct interpretation of change / continuation if one is using ES only?
You left out a couple of key points along the way, but basically, yes, The drill described in my earlier posts allows the trader to 'see' the market and differenciate between continuation or change at the end of every bar. Now, this does not necessarily mean each change signal represents a change signal on your personal trading resolution level, but that isn;t what the drill was designed to teach.
Think for a moment about the Jokari Window. What does it say with respect to Price and Volume. Locate the highlighted bar below on the Jokari Window, and what do we expect to have happen? Then, what does happen? How does this differ from when the Jokari Window appears to fail? What differences exist in such a scenario when compared to what we 'see' here?
As you can see, the 'drill' I posted has to do with moving people's brains around to a different vantage point. Learn to differenciate continuation from change on every bar. Where things appear difficult, determine how one might create 'boundaries' around such areas in order to 'see' when Price and Volume move out of these 'difficult' areas and into clarity.
The drill isn't designed to provide a profitiable trading methodology, although, performing the drill will put one on track toward such a goal.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1702604>
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