Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[ericta]

Quote from BlowFish:

I thought it might have merit where you could reasonably anticipate change. Use your APA IF1/2 to make sure you are on the right side of the market regardless of whether you anticipated correctly or not.

I'm used to think that way too... but really? there's a mechanism that put you on the right side of market even you are wrong? Too good to be true!

My guess is only those who can see margin of error in tic accuracy can find APA meaningful. I know I'm not those people, I don't even have full control of the situation when the price is Breaking out a 2 point wide pennant formation with increasing volume!...3 tic accuracy? who am I kidding

For now, let's get all the tools down cold first. when the time comes we might be doing the washes the right way without even realize it.

 

[Jander]

Quote from Spydertrader:


By example, How many times has the scenario pictured below occurred during a trading day? How many times have people wondered, "Is this an FTT? Do I have change here? Should I reverse?"

A good example I came across was the 10:55 - 11:00 sequence today. I will have to reread your post a couple of times before I can comment on the practical application.

Can someone point me to a place to get the concept of apa/if1/if2? Somehow I missed it and everything in the journal seems like folks guessing at what it means. Was it in Channels for BW?

 

[ericta]

Quote from Jander:

A good example I came across was the 10:55 - 11:00 sequence today. I will have to reread your post a couple of times before I can comment on the practical application.

Can someone point me to a place to get the concept of apa/if1/if2? Somehow I missed it and everything in the journal seems like folks guessing at what it means. Was it in Channels for BW?

see this diagram posted by Oddiduro

 

[BlowFish]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Certainly, the market has provided other signals during this five minute bar, but no need to concern ourselves with those for now. Simply, by using only the ES Chart, we can all but eliminate these temporary areas of 'uncertainty' and transform them into periods where we simply wait to make a decision or take action.

For If1-If2, simply do the drill described and 'see' for yourself where it fits in best. I believe what you find will change your outlook from one of stress to one of calm.

I hope you find the above useful.

- Spydertrader

This neatly weaves in with my chief area for improvement. Heres the thing, the stuff I have attributed to emotional issues (fear ego etc.) has an area to feed in. That's getting caught up in the intrabar gyrations.

Putting aside the IF1/2 procedure all the time this is inside the previous bar, or more often than not still making LL LC and LH (or all 3) there really is no reason to 'freak out'.

Can you remind me of the drill you talk about (the one from a month or two back) so I can track it down and review it? Is it simply waiting for bar close to act?

Many Thanks.

 

[tradewiz]

ok, i am going to learning this staff. but i need a confidence booster before I dive deep into this: did anyone actually make real money using hershey's methods to trade futures? what is this all about in it's simplest form?

 

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from tradewiz:

ok, i am going to learning this staff. but i need a confidence booster before I dive deep into this: did anyone actually make real money using hershey's methods to trade futures? what is this all about in it's simplest form?

Looking at the amount of years you have been registered, you must be aware of the large amount of work Spydertrader has put forth, and all those that have worked very hard through out all the years.

There is a huge amount of confidence boosting material here on ET.

Search Spydertrader and Hershey and you will find all you need.

 

[BlowFish]

Quote from ericta:

I'm used to think that way too... but really? there's a mechanism that put you on the right side of market even you are wrong? Too good to be true!

My guess is only those who can see margin of error in tic accuracy can find APA meaningful. I know I'm not those people, I don't even have full control of the situation when the price is Breaking out a 2 point wide pennant formation with increasing volume!...3 tic accuracy? who am I kidding

For now, let's get all the tools down cold first. when the time comes we might be doing the washes the right way without even realize it.

This may sound like bragging it really is not as it is also the main impediment to my greater success. I frequently carve the turn within a few ticks. This is pretty much without finer tools though I do use the DOM to enter so I can hit the bid or ask as the 'surge' stalls. I don't really watch it (DOM) and only move there when the chart dictates but it's a good place to see pace. You can also see it on the bar chart it just is not so pronounced due to scaling of the price axis.

The thing is this draws you down the rabbit hole. I find it hard to move back to the chart. I am inclined to just exit with a few ticks if price does not immediately move my way. It is often inclined to move into a 2 tick situation or a dwell point, or even re-tests the entry area.

I guess I should really kill the dom and use bar close for decision points, perhaps coupled with pretending I entered at the extreme of the endpoint (from the point of view of evaluating the correct course of action).

This is hard to do it means you might detect change but actually wait as it is perhaps not 'enough' change for the fractal you are trading. The sub concious sees this change and goes clickity click given half a chance.

Its tough because you have to delay evaluating the data (even on a simple 5 min chart). We all know that a 5 minute bar can look very different as its forming (making its high or low for example).

The ironic thing of course is this becomes almost trivial when not in the market.

Anyway IF1/2 APA is not an answer to this but being aware of where you are compared to the last bar should help keep perspective. Mind you tapes do that for you too

Cheers.

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Simply, by using only the ES Chart, we can all but eliminate these temporary areas of 'uncertainty' and transform them into periods where we simply wait to make a decision or take action.
- Spydertrader

Having held short through pt3 at 10am, I was anticipating a flaw at the close of the 10:10 bar. Decreasing black vol on 10:15 bar supported the conclusion or a retrace, so no change. At the close of 10:20 I see a higher high, a close near the high and increasing black vol so assumed change at the close (77.75). For continuation on 10:25 bar I would need a higher high with black vol or decreasing red vol for continuation long but this bar closes with increasing red vol so this again seems to indicate change (75.50). On the 10:30 bar I would need a lower low, red vol or decreasing black vol for continuation short but in fact get a higher high and increasing black vol at the close, indicating change again (80.00). If I had acted on each of these change signals at the close of each bar, the net result would have been a series of losses. Is this a correct interpretation of change / continuation if one is using ES only?

 

[makosgu]

Quote from tradewiz:

ok, i am going to learning this staff. but i need a confidence booster before I dive deep into this: did anyone actually make real money using hershey's methods to trade futures? what is this all about in it's simplest form?

Go back to page 1. On page 1 there are links to send you back to previous threads. Follow those links to their page 1... You should be able to work your way to where you currently percieve yourself to be. The key is the process, not the details. If you can nail down the process, then the details automatically sort themselves out. You will find many individuals throughout the threads who did not establish the process and insisted on the details. Most accept the fundamentals, PV. However, the process is just as fundamental the above 2 variables.

MAK

 

[gooch87]

here is my morning.
I was able to extract 1.75 points very calmly.